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Pattern Januworry

SD said:
You have to wonder at least a little that wave timing and general chaos among 50 members might be making the eps look a little wonky here. Maybe I'm just being a weenie
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I totally see the fail option here, I’m not even trying to be negative but with lower heights undercutting the cutoff ridge. we have had a tendency of leaving donuts/TPVs around bad spots the last few years and it ------- everything up in a otherwise favorable pattern
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I totally see the fail option here, I’m not even trying to be negative but with lower heights undercutting the cutoff ridge. we have had a tendency of leaving donuts/TPVs around bad spots the last few years and it ------- everything up in a otherwise favorable pattern
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Yeah it's frustrating I was hoping to see a better outcome on the eps after the cmc/gfs today. Control gives me a little hope though
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS brings back a AK vortex/+EPO and struggles to get any ridging going into AK/NW territories with a shallow western ridge while the GEFS has a -EPO/+PNA View attachment 99998View attachment 99999
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Take the average of the two, you have a +PNA/AO/NAO. I don’t hate it esp since the cold air is already in N America, we can get away with some mild pacific flow for a while. I think the eps may be too fast in pushing the cold air out of the continent. It’ll likely still be there over east-central Canada
 
BullCityWx said:
I was told that was absolutely the only thing that only mattered ever and that we’ve never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever had any events without it
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Exactamundo. +pna is helpful but if everything else is meh a string of 45-50 highs and lows 25-30 is about the best you can do. Id take it though sadly
 
SD said:
Exactamundo. +pna is helpful but if everything else is meh a string of 45-50 highs and lows 25-30 is about the best you can do. Id take it though sadly
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Not only that but it’s hard to get any moisture with a +PNA/+NAO, lots of clear sky 45-50 degree days tho with morning mega frosts, and hoping for northern stream cooperation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not only that but it’s hard to get any moisture with a +PNA/+NAO, lots of clear sky 45-50 degree days tho with morning mega frosts, and hoping for northern stream cooperation
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Yep and that pna isn't tall enough to really get us in the game for clippers or eastern Carolinas for late bloomers
 
SD said:
Yep and that pna isn't tall enough to really get us in the game for clippers or eastern Carolinas for late bloomers
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I have always not hated on -PNAs (other then exceptionally strong ones like the one we just had) as that’s some of the best ways Charlotte has scored in the past with Miller Bs, sure +PNAs deliver legitimate cold but they typically lean more to Miller A cyclones which is better for ENC and screw areas back west, of course there’s the rare exception of some bowling ball ULL ejecting out under the PNA ridge from the SW in tandem with a NE US vortex
 
I don’t care how hard it snows but 61 soil temps sucks we will lose up to 4”snowfall and be muddy mess underneath and very wet roads. We need a cold blast or two for sure we can still lower it down…overnight temps have been 30+ degrees above normal here!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big Hudson Bay vortex looks ready to drop down from time to time
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I swear I think I remember when we did this similar look in 13/14 14/15 the models always wanted to contract beat down western ridging, contact the pv polward and raise heights in the eastern half of the US only to correct to a taller ridge, deeper south pv, lower Eastern heights. Obviously a different time and "better" models now. Just something I thought about
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I have always not hated on -PNAs (other then exceptionally strong ones like the one we just had) as that’s some of the best ways Charlotte has scored in the past with Miller Bs, sure +PNAs deliver legitimate cold but they typically lean more to Miller A cyclones which is better for ENC and screw areas back west, of course there’s the rare exception of some bowling ball ULL ejecting out under the PNA ridge from the SW in tandem with a NE US vortex
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I can't remember it exactly, but Webb shared a graphic he made about snowfall on A's vs B's, and B's can often screw us in the Piedmont. There's often a dryslot that forms over the Central / Western NC during the low transfer to the coast.
 
smast16 said:
I can't remember it exactly, but Webb shared a graphic he made about snowfall on A's vs B's, and B's can often screw us in the Piedmont. There's often a dryslot that forms over the Central / Western NC during the low transfer to the coast.
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While that can happen, Miller Bs are typically still better for snow for us back west even with mixed precip favored, while As screw us due to most of the time being to Far East
 
smast16 said:
I can't remember it exactly, but Webb shared a graphic he made about snowfall on A's vs B's, and B's can often screw us in the Piedmont. There's often a dryslot that forms over the Central / Western NC during the low transfer to the coast.
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But the problem with Miller As is that you’re always running a fine line on the NW edge. Those accumulations drop off so quickly. Ask folks in northern Mecklenburg County how good the January 2000 storm was…. those folks barely got an inch or so while southeastern parts of the county and into southern Cabarrus and Union Counties were dumped on.
 
Chazwin said:
But the problem with Miller As is that you’re always running a fine line on the NW edge. Those accumulations drop off so quickly. Ask folks in northern Mecklenburg County how good the January 2000 storm was…. those folks barely got an inch or so while southeastern parts of the county and into southern Cabarrus and Union Counties were dumped on.
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Sounds good to me ?
 
Broken024 said:
Sounds good to me ?
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Yeah but too many times over the years that cut off has been much further south and east. The early January 2018 storm put down 2 inches just 14 miles to my southeast while I barely got a flurry. I’ll always take my chances with a February 2014 type set up or even though it didn’t work out for my spot specifically, December 2018.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah but too many times over the years that cut off has been much further south and east. The early January 2018 storm put down 2 inches just 14 miles to my southeast while I barely got a flurry. I’ll always take my chances with a February 2014 type set up or even though it didn’t work out for my spot specifically, December 2018.
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Feb 2004 or go home for me.
 
Active pattern on tap early 2022, ~996mb through the coastal plain or just offshore 1/3 and rising +PNA another storm after 1/11 with possible Baja ejection, like inflection points but this should be a spiking PNA, go figure, nature corrects NW to SE, I guess, why not, looking at PDX/SEA and now…
 
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Broken024 said:
Feb 2004 or go home for me.
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I doubt I ever get to experience another February 2004 in my lifetime. Not that we’re not gonna see similar set ups and low tracks, but what made that storm so unforgettable was the way that the areas that got dumped on the hardest during the overrunning first half of the storm are also the same spots that got the most from the upper low as it crossed by.
 
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