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Pattern Januworry

metwannabe said:
I know it's la la land but at least the arctic blast was under 350 this time and imo it looked like the changes that occurred that allowed that cold to finally come SE starting to take shape around 240, so pattern change still may very well be on schedule here.
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meh. I’d wait and see if the GEFS agrees
 
Will Rossman said:
12z GFS wasn't bad. It bring the first freeze of the season to many in the deep south region on the morning of January 3, with highs struggling to get to the 50s on Monday across the area. At least the pattern shift seems be getting its date bearings now - right after the New Year.
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prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason I say there really isn't anything to be encouraged about on the 12z GEFS, the pattern near the end of the run is literally no different than the one we're dealing with around Christmas.

View attachment 98612

View attachment 98611
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The only real difference is the cold air over western Canada has spilled southward into the western US and out into parts of the Great Plains, but ultimately it is still just as crummy of a pattern as we're in now (taken verbatim of course). If I was in the SE US, I'd want to see the Gulf of Alaska ridge move towards the West Coast, before I feel any legitimate hope of getting cold/snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason I say there really isn't anything to be encouraged about on the 12z GEFS, the pattern near the end of the run is literally no different than the one we're dealing with around Christmas.

View attachment 98612

View attachment 98611
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More smoothed out means in the long range and we all know long range always changes but as long as we’re in that pattern in the heart of winter there is always room for overrunning or CAD with this pattern
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
More smoothed out means in the long range and we all know long range always changes but as long as we’re in that pattern in the heart of winter there is always room for overrunning or CAD with this pattern
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It’s really getting annoying watching the western US cash in on unlimited troughing, all I at least hope for is for it to relax a bit or there be a PNW trough/SW US ridge and then a EC trough, the stubborn + tilted AK ridge and -PNA just keeps holding on, I don’t mind the conus trough look but it’s prone to fails
I mean look at Seattle’s snow mean, it seems like they just have AN snow year after year now 78C98E07-533D-4E73-B12D-DD8C418CF2F2.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
More smoothed out means in the long range and we all know long range always changes but as long as we’re in that pattern in the heart of winter there is always room for overrunning or CAD with this pattern
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There isn't room for wintry versions of either of those in your neck of the woods until a trough axis swings into the southern plains states after cold air is already firmly entrenched over the Carolinas. I definitely don't see that on the GEFS
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Patience my friend
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Winter weather here is like threading a needle. Right now the eye of the needle is really small. And all you have is yarn. At least there's some thread in NW Canada and it's not all the way over in Siberia. Still, getting it here seems tough. Can't seem to escape supply chain issues, even with the weather.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s really getting annoying watching the western US cash in on unlimited troughing, all I at least hope for is for it to relax a bit or there be a PNW trough/SW US ridge and then a EC trough, the stubborn + tilted AK ridge and -PNA just keeps holding on, I don’t mind the conus trough look but it’s prone to fails
I mean look at Seattle’s snow mean, it seems like they just have AN snow year after year now View attachment 98613
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In the past 11 years Seattle has only had 3 above average snowfall seasons . They have actually been shut out more than been above average on snow . 4 years had T or less with 1 having flat out 0.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I wouldn’t put all my eggs in a 300+ hour pattern that could change every 6 hours and say we have literally no hope winter done CANCEL .. lol
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You're probably one of the last people on this forum that should be trying to lecture someone about getting overly excited for 300+ hr model runs.
 
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