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Pattern Januworry

SD said:
You have to wonder at least a little that wave timing and general chaos among 50 members might be making the eps look a little wonky here. Maybe I'm just being a weenie
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I totally see the fail option here, I’m not even trying to be negative but with lower heights undercutting the cutoff ridge. we have had a tendency of leaving donuts/TPVs around bad spots the last few years and it ------- everything up in a otherwise favorable pattern
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I totally see the fail option here, I’m not even trying to be negative but with lower heights undercutting the cutoff ridge. we have had a tendency of leaving donuts/TPVs around bad spots the last few years and it ------- everything up in a otherwise favorable pattern
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Yeah it's frustrating I was hoping to see a better outcome on the eps after the cmc/gfs today. Control gives me a little hope though
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS brings back a AK vortex/+EPO and struggles to get any ridging going into AK/NW territories with a shallow western ridge while the GEFS has a -EPO/+PNA View attachment 99998View attachment 99999
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Take the average of the two, you have a +PNA/AO/NAO. I don’t hate it esp since the cold air is already in N America, we can get away with some mild pacific flow for a while. I think the eps may be too fast in pushing the cold air out of the continent. It’ll likely still be there over east-central Canada
 
BullCityWx said:
I was told that was absolutely the only thing that only mattered ever and that we’ve never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever had any events without it
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Exactamundo. +pna is helpful but if everything else is meh a string of 45-50 highs and lows 25-30 is about the best you can do. Id take it though sadly
 
SD said:
Exactamundo. +pna is helpful but if everything else is meh a string of 45-50 highs and lows 25-30 is about the best you can do. Id take it though sadly
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Not only that but it’s hard to get any moisture with a +PNA/+NAO, lots of clear sky 45-50 degree days tho with morning mega frosts, and hoping for northern stream cooperation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not only that but it’s hard to get any moisture with a +PNA/+NAO, lots of clear sky 45-50 degree days tho with morning mega frosts, and hoping for northern stream cooperation
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Yep and that pna isn't tall enough to really get us in the game for clippers or eastern Carolinas for late bloomers
 
SD said:
Yep and that pna isn't tall enough to really get us in the game for clippers or eastern Carolinas for late bloomers
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I have always not hated on -PNAs (other then exceptionally strong ones like the one we just had) as that’s some of the best ways Charlotte has scored in the past with Miller Bs, sure +PNAs deliver legitimate cold but they typically lean more to Miller A cyclones which is better for ENC and screw areas back west, of course there’s the rare exception of some bowling ball ULL ejecting out under the PNA ridge from the SW in tandem with a NE US vortex
 
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