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Pattern Januworry

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This is close right here. Move that low about 200-300 miles north and put that high over Michigan and you have a winter storm


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Jessy89 said:
885275d88d1a9fa25b292e5693d70732.jpg


This is close right here. Move that low about 200-300 miles north and put that high over Michigan and you have a winter storm


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Not just any storm… January 2000. Note the colors pallet is skewed on the lower side (I had trouble with the anomaly algorithm when I made this)
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I doubt it would happen though.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Brings me snow? I like this set up! But for real though this works out more when our first system blows up off into the NE almost backs up the whole flow and brings the cold air down
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That type of setup would probably be very marginal unless we have more cold wrap into the system via N/S
 
Ollie Williams said:
Not just any storm… January 2000. Note the colors pallet is skewed on the lower side (I had trouble with the anomaly algorithm when I made this)
View attachment 102889
View attachment 102892
I doubt it would happen though.
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A few days before Jan 2000 there was a burp or 2 from models for a possible novelty flake. All we had was tv mets back then.But it
completely vanished and from TV mets 3-5 day forecast as time drew nearer. Then that Monday I remember hearing early morning tv mets saying the models missed this northern stream diving energy by a 1000 miles. Ed Mathews. But dont sweat may get a few flakes latter in day. MiddaY snow starts breaking out Georgia up to Charlotte. By 4 to 5 pm Fishell is on air wral saying Raleigh is gonna see its biggest snow ever. Its snowing in eastern triad and local mets had us 1-3 on 6pm news. Heaviest would be down to Raleigh. Then the occlusion and pivot happens late that night. Woke up at sunrise Tuesday and 15 -18 inches was laying on the ground Randolph,eastern Guilford Alamance. Spent 7 long,cold days in the dark no power. We had a 2 tenths inch ice event that weekend preceeding and it was still on limbs. Caught every wet flake. As we where in the dark that Thursday another 5 incher came along.
 
NCSNOW said:
A few days before Jan 2000 there was a burp or 2 from models for a possible novelty flake. All we had was tv mets back then.But it
completely vanished and from TV mets 3-5 day forecast as time drew nearer. Then that Monday I remember hearing early morning tv mets saying the models missed this northern stream diving energy by a 1000 miles. Ed Mathews. But dont sweat may get a few flakes latter in day. MiddaY snow starts breaking out Georgia up to Charlotte. By 4 to 5 pm Fishell is on air wral saying Raleigh is gonna see its biggest snow ever. Its snowing in eastern triad and local mets had us 1-3 on 6pm news. Heaviest would be down to Raleigh. Then the occlusion and pivot happens late that night. Woke up at sunrise Tuesday and 15 -18 inches was laying on the ground Randolph,eastern Guilford Alamance. Spent 7 long,cold days in the dark no power. We had a 2 tenths inch ice event that weekend preceeding and it was still on limbs. Caught every wet flake. As we where in the dark that Thursday another 5 incher came along.
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That would be a dream to experience. Unfortunately it’s 22 years later.
 
Looks like the difference between the GEFS/EPS is that the EPS is faster with the energy so it enters a colder airmass initially and interacts with the lower heights off the coast quicker/colder stuff to the NE so the NS energy can wrap that in more, while the GEFS is slower so it ridges out ahead a little which means it’s harder for it to feel the CAA from the system in the Atlantic, and it allows a better chance for the system to move more north/cut into a apps rubber, all this probably shows why the EPS was decent last night, need quicker energy, gefs looks better this run however then the last few 37B21134-817C-4941-BB4B-D87C9EFA4302.jpeg93A54D33-7F9C-4D9C-8439-4962A4DE3A98.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
That would be a dream to experience. Unfortunately it’s 22 years later.
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Yeah, I think that now with all the short range models that refresh every 1-2 hours now, mets would be able to quickly react to and adjust forecasts a lot more quickly than as the 2000 storm unfolded. Even with that storm, I can remember Eric Thomas adding light snow to his Monday forecast for CLT metro on the Sunday 6pm newscast, then on the 11pm newscast he said that he thought that east of I-77 could see up to an inch of accumulation… there was already several inches on the ground from the storm that had just exited so he wasn’t concerned about a ton of additional impacts
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the difference between the GEFS/EPS is that the EPS is faster with the energy so it enters a colder airmass initially and interacts with the lower heights off the coast quicker/colder stuff to the NE so the NS energy can wrap that in more, while the GEFS is slower so it ridges out ahead a little which means it’s harder for it to feel the CAA from the system in the Atlantic, and it allows a better chance for the system to move more north/cut into a apps rubber, all this probably shows why the EPS was decent last night, need quicker energy, gefs looks better this run however then the last few View attachment 102897View attachment 102898
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the EPS typically have a bias of being slower with energy?
 
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Not freaking out, just trying to also reel in expectations of multiple winter storms in the upcoming weeks like the models were showing yesterday. The PNA is positive, which is good, but is not dramatically so, so as usual we still may need to thread the needle versus having a “can’t miss” pattern.
 
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