Pattern Januworry

[FallsLake]

The reliable (cough cough) CFS is on board for a storm at day 10:

 

[CaryWx]

Definitely getting a storm signal on the models now. True timing and placement tbd

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The reliable (cough cough) CFS is on board for a storm at day 10:
View attachment 102766

I guess we can add it to the list. The CMC yesterday, the GFS today and the Euro looked like it had a system with good 850s based on the free maps I saw. I'm guessing it didn't produce and was too far south since I didn't see a single map from it on here.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Don’t know if it’ll happen but that’s how it’s done.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

starting to get a legit signal on the EPS, looking at individual members seem as if some of them have mixed precip (likely the ones that are lower)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Flizzard watch lol

 

[wxdaniel]

I believe we are good across the Carolinas right now. Even on the east side. All the snow pack through the Great Lakes and New England I’m not sure any of the models are taking that into account.


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[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

starting to get a legit signal on the EPS, looking at individual members seem as if some of them have mixed precip (likely the ones that are lower) View attachment 102768View attachment 102769View attachment 102770View attachment 102771View attachment 102772

Yeah I look at the number of members producing instead of a mean amount. I'd rather have half the members with something and a lower mean than have 2 or 3 hits and a higher mean that's skewed.

 

[Stormlover]

Euro control

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah I look at the number of members producing instead of a mean amount. I'd rather have half the members with something and a lower mean than have 2 or 3 hits and a higher mean that's skewed.

I agree. I’ve been too burned too many times the last few years with a solid mean. Give more members just showing something as I think that is a stronger storm signal

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Chandler]

?View attachment 102776

Turns into a nice storm for NE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Turns into a nice storm for NE

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areas

 

[Deleted member 609]

Turns into a nice storm for NE

Yea Boston going to get crushed

 

[wxdaniel]

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areasView attachment 102777View attachment 102778

So the ULL moving further south to the lower latitues doesnt concern you?

 

[DopplerWx]

Ex

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areasView attachment 102777View attachment 102778

with the nw trends we have seen it could really come into play for nc being 120hrs out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So the ULL moving further south to the lower latitues doesnt concern you?

Not really a ULL it’s a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex, I’d definitely want that further south and the cold it carries

 

[Tarheel1]

Congrats to the MA and NE! HECS

 

[Stormlover]

The time to watch https://carolinawxauthority.com/fav...5WVj0FC2iNQ9NZoF5QF6C9OLgB5N5BW2mZKyCJeVozS1k

 

[Storm5]

Congrats to the MA and NE! HECSView attachment 102779

Setting the table


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[TheBatman]

The time to watch

That a accuweather graphic?

 

[SD]

Please hammer don't hurt em, gfs is getting into super weenie land

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Please hammer don't hurt emView attachment 102780
View attachment 102781

If we could just shift the general pattern west a bit… we get crushed

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Another one for the NE lol

 

[SD]

If we could just shift the general pattern west a bit… we get crushed

Yeah it's getting close now.Think wide right or a big NE hit is most likely given the overall setup but good grief

 

[Tarheel1]

Setting the table


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It’s always a step down process, with appetizers on the table we’re setting!

 

[Stormdoc]

If we could just shift the general pattern west a bit… we get crushed

That’s why we should cheer for that bomb at hour 120 above. The Stronger that 50/50 it forms, the more it buckles and backs up the flow a bit to the west. That storm will probably miss us, but I’m still happy about it.

 

[Stormdoc]

Plus, how strong that storm is will obviously have big implications for storms later, just another reason not to get either too hyped up or disappointed about surface features until models get it resolved.

 

[Stormlover]

That a accuweather graphic?

No, click the Time to watch to go to the story

 

[brendan123]

Closely watching… 30 miles west and SEVA and NENC would have their most serious threat since January 2018. Obviously a lot of time for this situation to develop and change, but certainly is interesting to watch

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 102784
Closely watching… 30 miles west and SEVA and NENC would have their most serious threat since January 2018. Obviously a lot of time for this situation to develop and change, but certainly is interesting to watch

Considering how that storm a week ago trended at the last minute, we have at least 60 possible hours of big trends

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We might go for it

 

[Ollie Williams]

We might go for it View attachment 102785

I doubt it. The trough to the west will likely shear it out.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I doubt it. The trough to the west will likely shear it out.

Why I said might, might happen might not, but it does look like you’ll be right

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still overall like the look for this range, it’s no southeast ridge, only thing is the WAR that kinda sticks out to me

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn NE

 

[brendan123]

Has Thu/Fri been trending in the right direction on the ensembles?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Tr

Damn NE View attachment 102787

Im happy the snowpack is building up there.. that will have good effects for us in the SE long term.

 

[whatalife]

 

[Chazwin]

Damn NE View attachment 102787

I want there to be as much snow pack as possible over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast when when hit the 18th and our window opens. I want these high pressures moving over a refrigerator to help with our cold air feed