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Pattern Januworry

Myfrotho704_ said:
This is painful watching from Charlotte, this has been the way we have gotten screwed the last 3 years, same areas everytime View attachment 99950
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It’s tough living 10 minutes from the NC/SC border. We get cold rain and all I have to do is drive 15 minutes up the road and it’ll be either icy or snowing.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm under the impression that w/ this AAM distribution and evolution (summarized as the GWO) that the deeper we go into February, the more likely we'll see +NAO/+AO/+NAM, which would favor warmth and a strong SE ridge around here. La Nina climo (February is usually warm-torchy) & the current episode of high-latitude North Pacific blocking coupled w/ +NAO & already strong +NAM in the mid-upper stratosphere lends even more credence to this idea.

Certainly will be interesting though prior to then, as the subtropical jet will be more amped than usual for much of January and the negative momentum that's entering the mid-latitudes is a favorable look for high-latitude blocking. (may be more-so in the Pacific instead of the Atlantic tho)

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So mega 2nd half of March?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Touchdown. Still a lot of outcomes possible but I wouldn't mind this one. NE NC is on deform band watch.
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Realistically I think central and eastern NC is on deform band watch .. there’s some heavy precip over even Raleigh and I’m assuming it would be snow since our temps are similar to those in eastern NC where the snow was shown .. looking at individual GEFS runs they are all roughly the same but still slightly different .. most have 1 thing in common and that is a heavy deform band .. this really will have to be looked at by the NAM to really see the inner workings of what happens .. but being in Raleigh I’m slightly excited for the chance but I’d be more excited if I was metawannabe
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Realistically I think central and eastern NC is on deform band watch .. there’s some heavy precip over even Raleigh and I’m assuming it would be snow since our temps are similar to those in eastern NC where the snow was shown .. looking at individual GEFS runs they are all roughly the same but still slightly different .. most have 1 thing in common and that is a heavy deform band .. this really will have to be looked at by the NAM to really see the inner workings of what happens .. but being in Raleigh I’m slightly excited for the chance but I’d be more excited if I was metawannabe
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Having to cool from the top down means lower your expectations to 0 and hope from there
 
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