accu35
Member
Chance for some strong/severe weather tomorrow before the front?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Chance for some strong/severe weather tomorrow before the front?
ATLwxfan
Member
Maybe I was thinking about this but marginally cold at best.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Teleconnections page is working again.
accu35
Member
Oh its cool lol. I get what your sayingMaybe I was thinking about this but marginally cold at best.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited:
NBAcentel
Member
Getting a slower amped trend seems to happen every time when a storm is over us, but when it comes to a trend that would put us in jackpot, we can’t buy a amped/NW trend for ---- 
RDU dropped to 21
tennessee storm
Member
Close but no cigar …
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Youtube
accu35
Member
TT likes to skip frame
Just watching these model runs going back to Christmas Day in terms of pattern progression, they waffle around, as expected.....some ok, some good, some excellent. The overnight runs were in the excellent camp (00z EPS, 06z GFS, 06z GEFS). EPS finally showed some good western ridging and was colder. Pac Jet progression and Aleutian Low maintenance - all very good. The models have remained consistent over the past 4-5 days in showing the best pattern beginning to setup in the Jan 17-18 timeframe. Hopefully we see more model runs in the excellent camp instead of the ok camp going forward.
Saw someone post this photo on Twitter this morning. #9 at Augusta National (maybe from late Jan 2014?)
Tough finding an analog for this. 2009 maybe?
Seems like we are seeing models with a ph7 pattern and hopefully ph 8.
Needs to try a lot harder. Plenty of time though.
Not a bad trend. Just not seeing a ton of cold air with it which is sort of a head scratcher. Maybe if we can send it negative and close it off 500 miles further west we can have a shot..
NBAcentel
Member
Really like where this is heading about to setup a cold lakes vortex just need southern stream cooperation 
The CoD is ok but back to a low ph7 almost ph6 by 18th-22nd is not favorable
Bout to get a fantasy storm at 240 on the gfs
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Incoming maybe?
Downeastnc
Member
iGRXY
Member
Low phase 7 in January absolutely is favorable
Yowza
Downeastnc
Member
This will happen I get rain every one else west of me gets hammered, that low location is usually jackpot for me though....
NBAcentel
Member
I’m getting a little excited at the persistent signal of a cold vortex/persistent troughing
dropping close to the lakes with a active southern stream. That’s a type of pattern that can produce a big dog
dropping close to the lakes with a active southern stream. That’s a type of pattern that can produce a big dog
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Holy ---- balls
Snownut
Member
Didn't you say yesterday there was a Warming Trend??
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
Hmmmmm, Damn Roxboro! If I ever move back down there, that’s a slam dunk
Yeah that's money. More snow east. Low gets cranking and the column crashes. Love the big high dropping in. A smidge sooner and it's a snow party for everybody. Classic, classic setup.
iGRXY
Member
Idk where this notion that phase 7 is a bad phase especially in January but that absolutely is not the case. Phase 7 and 8 are great to be in and I’m pretty sure phase 7 has produced more winter storms in the southeast than phase 8
How about a blend of Jan 2009 and 1996? Hoping we can create our own new favorite analog
Fairly certain Jan ph7/8 is the highest correlation for snow for our area. Not sure what impact enso has though.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Cold Rain alluded to this but this map indicates a late bloomer with such heavy totals like that in those locations. I am guessing much of this in NEGA/SC would be mixed with sleet in a Miller B scenario. The big dog from the other day showed something similar but not as late so the biggest snow totals were further SW. If this bloomed a bit sooner it would get more peeps in the game for big snow, but it might also run the risk of over amping and cutting. Always such a tap dance around here to get one just right. Obviously this is a fantasy map but it is great to see the models continuing to show potential after the 13th, and especially after the 16th. Everybody stay tuned and keep those fingers and toes crossed!
iGRXY
Member
Looked at thermals. It’s more than supportive of snow in the upstate. In fact it’s very cold through the column and would support ratios probably closer to 15:1
ATLwxfan
Member
Lol Canadian is for rain lovers.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
I just moved some posts to the banter thread. I moved too many and moved some back here where they were supposed to be. I guess I'm out of practice. Y'all try to keep the banter "is this good" posts in the whamby thread please. Thanks!
sorry pack
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like a El Niño with the undercutting STJ
You want the convergence of a La Nina cold snap with an El Nino southern jet.
Does this mean when we go back to El Niño we’re going to finally get a La Niña look ?