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Pattern January Joke

Arcc said:
Depends on where you are. With it inching west with the SW but also with the big low about the Great Lakes as well. Plus the big ULL exiting faster stage right over the far NE. The trend should be more tilt/amplification.
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The run-to-run changes with the TPV orientation in SE Canada are wild.
 
packfan98 said:
What are your thoughts this morning on where we stand? Widespread SE event, Coastal special, or nothingburger?
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Still hard to say - probably a I95 event right right now. But man the NW trending is fast. Saw someone mention this but in setups that lack blocking on top, with any amplification to the upstream pattern, this thing can come further NW. each tick west, the western Atlantic ridge noses in more. And on top of that, each amplified trend is driving in more WAA, which models already struggle on
 
NBAcentel said:
Still hard to say - probably a I95 event right right now. But man the NW trending is fast. Saw someone mention this but in setups that lack blocking on top, with any amplification to the upstream pattern, this thing can come further NW. each tick west, the western Atlantic ridge noses in more. And on top of that, each amplified trend is driving in more WAA, which models already struggle on
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Yeah, we aren't far off from getting most of us in on the good stuff. Could potentially hit the coastal areas up north too. Interesting to follow nonetheless. Thanks!
 
RBR71 said:
Yep... I'm just skimming through stuff and the Ukie tries to really bomb this. Which for us down east is concerning haha. Someone getting a nice surprise Sunday I do believe
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the ukie was a really interesting run. unsure if it will verify there's typically a warm outlier at this point that dials back as we approach hour zero. but i think it oulines the obvious risks of too much amplification for the southeastern fringe. Which I think is fine... augusta/upstate/clt are more than due
 
Easy to see why a winter storm has suddenly shown up this weekend.

Here is the 48-hour 500mb trend on the eps

The wave pattern over the North Pacific is more amped and blocky near model initialization with these changes propagating downstream into the Eastern US a few days later, leading to a winter storm

IMG_7235.gif
 
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The RGEM showing this first wave being so strong is really interesting but then again it’s struggling with the coastal storm
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very Jan 2014-esque wave pattern here, which makes sense given the superposition of the West Pac MJO onto the eastward shifting indo pacific warm pool

View attachment 183231

View attachment 183232
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This one?
january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif
 
packfan98 said:
This one?
january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif
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Haha yep. That looked like a nothingburger except for the coast about 4-5 days out and trended north down to the 0 hour. I remember Fayetteville was supposed to get drilled with snow but the warm nose aloft was much stronger than forecast and changed us over to sleet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It lost that flat suppressive look here. Thoughts?First time I’ve seen that feature modeled. It appears cocked and ready to fire View attachment 183235
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That's what's driving the Saturday morning snow chances for North GA/NC mountains. I don't think it has a big impact on the main wave, either way.
 
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] shifting NW all the way to upstate and mountains?


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Webberweather53 said:
Haha yep. That looked like a nothingburger except for the coast about 4-5 days out and trended north down to the 0 hour. I remember Fayetteville was supposed to get drilled with snow but the warm nose aloft was much stronger than forecast and changed us over to sleet
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I was in Greensboro back then and I remember that was one of those rare storms in the upper teens at the surface. Wasn’t a lot of snow, but the cold ones are always fun.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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that's fine with me as long as I don't get a sleet storm
 
Folks, that was a great NAM run for many. Very similar to the 6Z EURO but poised to bring precip much further west IMO. Here, you can see the 700Mb moisture pooling and is about to overspread much of the SE. We're very close to getting overrunning precip before the pivot on both the NAM and 6Z Euro.nam-700rh-us_se-2026011412-84.pngnam-cloudcover-us_se-2026011412-84.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Folks, that was a great NAM run for many. Very similar to the 6Z EURO but poised to bring precip much further west IMO. Here, you can see the 700Mb moisture pooling and is about to overspread much of the SE. We're very close to getting overrunning precip before the pivot on both the NAM and 6Z Euro.View attachment 183238View attachment 183239
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Much better than that image of extremely dry air you shared last night from the NAM.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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Even though I am happy with the trends that the models have been showing during the past 48 hours, I am afraid that the northwest shift you mention will happen and this may become an event for folks in the Western Piedmont and points west in North and South Carolina. I've got my fingers crossed that this shift will not be dramatic and turn Sunday's storm into a App cutter. We are still around 96 hours away from ground zero and a lot can happen between now and then. Here's to hoping my negativity is totally unfounded.
 
Parker said:
Much better than that image of extremely dry air you shared last night from the NAM.
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Indeed. And, while I didn't post it, thermals are quite supportive of mostly snow, assuming adequate precip early on and later as CAA spills into Alabama and Georgia.
 
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