This is a big reason why there is more leeway with this system, this is not a marginally cold air mass like we are often dealing with. Plus, since it is not a tightly wound low pressure, the inevitable further NW trend often brings in more dynamics and moisture versus moving the warm air advection north and west (at least to a point)Good point but that is one intense air mass.
Whoever is just west of that boundary….
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Pattern January Joke
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UK a touch further west and what a huge difference that makes at the surface...but I don't remember the last winter storm where the UK led. But a blend of the 3 major globals would be very nice...
That's getting very close to a broader overrunning event prior to the pivot.
Need to see if/how this starts to shift across modeling. Where winners and losers are made 
NBAcentel
Member
NAM coming in further west with the energy
packfan98
Moderator
What are your thoughts this morning on where we stand? Widespread SE event, Coastal special, or nothingburger?
The run-to-run changes with the TPV orientation in SE Canada are wild.
NBAcentel
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Almost a benchmark for our good winter storms. The big question mark is the other energy kinks and how they interact with our digging energy making it turn negative (or not).
NBAcentel
Member
Still hard to say - probably a I95 event right right now. But man the NW trending is fast. Saw someone mention this but in setups that lack blocking on top, with any amplification to the upstream pattern, this thing can come further NW. each tick west, the western Atlantic ridge noses in more. And on top of that, each amplified trend is driving in more WAA, which models already struggle on
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, we aren't far off from getting most of us in on the good stuff. Could potentially hit the coastal areas up north too. Interesting to follow nonetheless. Thanks!
the ukie was a really interesting run. unsure if it will verify there's typically a warm outlier at this point that dials back as we approach hour zero. but i think it oulines the obvious risks of too much amplification for the southeastern fringe. Which I think is fine... augusta/upstate/clt are more than due
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GFS had some very nice ratios in ENC
wow
Member
NAM is winding this one up, no doubt. Good separation here. It's going to tilt.
NBAcentel
Member
12z nam yesterday vs 12z today 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Easy to see why a winter storm has suddenly shown up this weekend.
Here is the 48-hour 500mb trend on the eps
The wave pattern over the North Pacific is more amped and blocky near model initialization with these changes propagating downstream into the Eastern US a few days later, leading to a winter storm
Here is the 48-hour 500mb trend on the eps
The wave pattern over the North Pacific is more amped and blocky near model initialization with these changes propagating downstream into the Eastern US a few days later, leading to a winter storm
Look at the exit right of the ULL...
run-to-run
Can already see difference in appearence of moisture in TN on 12z NAM compared to 06zSomebody about to get rained on
This is more like other Models on that first initially Saturday outlook
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Very Jan 2014-esque wave pattern here, which makes sense given the superposition of the West Pac MJO onto the eastward shifting indo pacific warm pool
NBAcentel
Member
This thing is digging so far back west lol on the NAM, getting into Colorado/wyoming 
It lost that flat suppressive look here. Thoughts?First time I’ve seen that feature modeled. It appears cocked and ready to fire 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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The RGEM showing this first wave being so strong is really interesting but then again it’s struggling with the coastal storm
packfan98
Moderator
At 500mb it was on its way to a pretty big storm I think.
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Looks like the shape of a high pressure ridge
you won't see that until the 18z or 00z probably, its just not quite go time yet for the nam
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This one?
Haha yep. That looked like a nothingburger except for the coast about 4-5 days out and trended north down to the 0 hour. I remember Fayetteville was supposed to get drilled with snow but the warm nose aloft was much stronger than forecast and changed us over to sleet
Maybe for east of 95 folks. Don't think it was going to cut it for western areas
rburrel2
Member
Precip was about to explode. It's just delayed b/c it's slowed and dug so much.
NBAcentel
Member
The base was all the way near New Mexico… that’s why it hadn’t fired anything off yet. This is actually further west then the EC/GFS
rburrel2
Member
That's what's driving the Saturday morning snow chances for North GA/NC mountains. I don't think it has a big impact on the main wave, either way.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.
Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
ducketta27
Member
[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] shifting NW all the way to upstate and mountains?
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I was in Greensboro back then and I remember that was one of those rare storms in the upper teens at the surface. Wasn’t a lot of snow, but the cold ones are always fun.
that's fine with me as long as I don't get a sleet storm
Folks, that was a great NAM run for many. Very similar to the 6Z EURO but poised to bring precip much further west IMO. Here, you can see the 700Mb moisture pooling and is about to overspread much of the SE. We're very close to getting overrunning precip before the pivot on both the NAM and 6Z Euro.
