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Pattern January Joke

James Spann just tossed those of us in south/central AL a little bit of hope.

"The weekend will be generally dry, but a weak wave along the front in the northern Gulf could bring a few sprinkles or flurries to South Alabama Saturday night. Again, no accumulation or impact is expected."

I'll take it. Hopefully, that moisture will trend eastward for the rest of y'all.
 
KyloG said:
Good point but that is one intense air mass.

Whoever is just west of that boundary….☃️

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This is a big reason why there is more leeway with this system, this is not a marginally cold air mass like we are often dealing with. Plus, since it is not a tightly wound low pressure, the inevitable further NW trend often brings in more dynamics and moisture versus moving the warm air advection north and west (at least to a point)
 
Arcc said:
Depends on where you are. With it inching west with the SW but also with the big low about the Great Lakes as well. Plus the big ULL exiting faster stage right over the far NE. The trend should be more tilt/amplification.
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The run-to-run changes with the TPV orientation in SE Canada are wild.
 
packfan98 said:
What are your thoughts this morning on where we stand? Widespread SE event, Coastal special, or nothingburger?
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Still hard to say - probably a I95 event right right now. But man the NW trending is fast. Saw someone mention this but in setups that lack blocking on top, with any amplification to the upstream pattern, this thing can come further NW. each tick west, the western Atlantic ridge noses in more. And on top of that, each amplified trend is driving in more WAA, which models already struggle on
 
NBAcentel said:
Still hard to say - probably a I95 event right right now. But man the NW trending is fast. Saw someone mention this but in setups that lack blocking on top, with any amplification to the upstream pattern, this thing can come further NW. each tick west, the western Atlantic ridge noses in more. And on top of that, each amplified trend is driving in more WAA, which models already struggle on
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Yeah, we aren't far off from getting most of us in on the good stuff. Could potentially hit the coastal areas up north too. Interesting to follow nonetheless. Thanks!
 
RBR71 said:
Yep... I'm just skimming through stuff and the Ukie tries to really bomb this. Which for us down east is concerning haha. Someone getting a nice surprise Sunday I do believe
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the ukie was a really interesting run. unsure if it will verify there's typically a warm outlier at this point that dials back as we approach hour zero. but i think it oulines the obvious risks of too much amplification for the southeastern fringe. Which I think is fine... augusta/upstate/clt are more than due
 
Easy to see why a winter storm has suddenly shown up this weekend.

Here is the 48-hour 500mb trend on the eps

The wave pattern over the North Pacific is more amped and blocky near model initialization with these changes propagating downstream into the Eastern US a few days later, leading to a winter storm

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The RGEM showing this first wave being so strong is really interesting but then again it’s struggling with the coastal storm
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very Jan 2014-esque wave pattern here, which makes sense given the superposition of the West Pac MJO onto the eastward shifting indo pacific warm pool

View attachment 183231

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This one?
january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif
 
packfan98 said:
This one?
january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif
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Haha yep. That looked like a nothingburger except for the coast about 4-5 days out and trended north down to the 0 hour. I remember Fayetteville was supposed to get drilled with snow but the warm nose aloft was much stronger than forecast and changed us over to sleet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It lost that flat suppressive look here. Thoughts?First time I’ve seen that feature modeled. It appears cocked and ready to fire View attachment 183235
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That's what's driving the Saturday morning snow chances for North GA/NC mountains. I don't think it has a big impact on the main wave, either way.
 
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] shifting NW all the way to upstate and mountains?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Haha yep. That looked like a nothingburger except for the coast about 4-5 days out and trended north down to the 0 hour. I remember Fayetteville was supposed to get drilled with snow but the warm nose aloft was much stronger than forecast and changed us over to sleet
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I was in Greensboro back then and I remember that was one of those rare storms in the upper teens at the surface. Wasn’t a lot of snow, but the cold ones are always fun.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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that's fine with me as long as I don't get a sleet storm
 
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