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Pattern January Joke

Ross said:
a lot of these changes just feel like shuffling the deckchairs on the titanic lol nothing is really moving the needle for me
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Idk if I’ve ever felt more adventure in tracking than right now. Nothing feels concrete or needle moving for sure but from the same token, model performance has been so woefully and historically bad that you can’t rule out a big dog at this point. High likelihood? Absolutely not. But does it bring us back every cycle? Yes.
 
Ross said:
a lot of these changes just feel like shuffling the deckchairs on the titanic lol nothing is really moving the needle for me
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It's SOP here at SouthernWx. We need a course on what to actually root for when it comes to storm creation in different environments.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Euro 18z appears to have the slightest SW shift with the ULL on the first system. Interested to see if that trend continues. If we're going to fix things we're gonna need a lot more than a simple 15-20 mile SW shift.
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We're not fixing the first system.
 
We probably won’t get anything… but if we do get .10-.15 of liquid up here and in central NC… I think we would be looking at 20:1+ ratios or better. The lift is pretty high up and it’s cold. I think we could see ratios like central nc saw last year from that very light 700mb fronto band that moved through and dropped 1-1.5 inches of snow from .05 liquid.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
Thats why I ignore the UKMET, a very unreliable model.
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Dude the UKMET ranks 2nd to the Euro inthe 5-7 day range. Id advise you to ignore the GFS before the ukie at that range. You can check those verification scores at 500mb at that range. Now is it right today for this event, most likely not. Likely a blend of the euro/ukie is more likely the outcome.
evs.global_det.acc.hgt_p500.last31days.timeseries_valid00z_f120.g004_nhem.png
 
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rburrel2 said:
We probably won’t get anything… but if we do get .10-.15 of liquid up here and in central NC… I think we would be looking at 20:1+ ratios or better. The lift is pretty high up and it’s cold. I think we could see ratios like central nc saw last year from that very light 700mb fronto band that moved through and dropped 1-1.5 inches of snow from .05 liquid.
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I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
 
Oconeexman said:
I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
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I've been saying this will end up giving the upstate 1" of snow
 
Oconeexman said:
I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
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I was about to say the next couple of days should narrow things down a bit.


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NBAcentel said:
Welp, it was nice while it lasted. Things don’t trend our way and that’s just how it is View attachment 182812
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I thought I posted this here and not banter…. This is a wash, footprint stayed the same. Yea amounts changed but it didn’t jump 100 miles North or South or East ect….. footprint looks equivalent …. Onward


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This smells like a brutal shot of Arctic air down the line. -AO/artic ridging. The Arctic ridging coupled to the strat. The main cold lobe is sitting in Canada. MJO heading for the Americas. Pacific jet heading back towards and breaking around Hawaii. The stars are aligning pattern wise. But the hurdle is capitalizing on smaller scale features and scoring. That’s the part we just can’t seem to get past IMG_2270.pngIMG_2272.pngIMG_2273.png
 
NBAcentel said:
This smells like a brutal shot of Arctic air down the line. -AO/artic ridging. The Arctic ridging coupled to the strat. The main cold lobe is sitting in Canada. MJO heading for the Americas. Pacific jet heading back towards and breaking around Hawaii. The stars are aligning pattern wise. But the hurdle is capitalizing on smaller scale features and scoring. That’s the part we just can’t seem to get past View attachment 182822View attachment 182825View attachment 182824
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Yeah you can’t ask for a better setup for cold. If we catch the full brunt of one of those arctic shots/PV lobes, it’s going to be pipe burst material.


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When the short range models start keying in on the late weekend storm will they have a better chance handling the moisture?
 
accu35 said:
When the short range models start keying in on the late weekend storm will they have a better chance handling the moisture?
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Sure...if there actually IS moisture. Ain't gonna get a lot of moisture with a cold front. Hopefully, we can see better trends with mid level energy.
 
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