• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

It really is unfortunate we can't dig the energy into the lower 48 like two states further to the West. You got all this energy dropping down & due to the stupid nudge off the Western ridge, it's dropping to far East. Other than that, it's a favorable pattern. And it sucks that it looks like we are going to wiff on what looks to be nearly a 5-6 day window.
 
Mitch West said:
It really is unfortunate we can't dig the energy into the lower 48 like two states further to the West. You got all this energy dropping down & due to the stupid nudge off the Western ridge, it's dropping to far East. Other than that, it's a favorable pattern. And it sucks that it looks like we are going to wiff on what looks to be nearly a 5-6 day window.
Click to expand...
Hopefully the southern jet gets more active later with some decent cold still around.lot of winter left.ive seen some big snows in February an march.
 
Jan88 said:
Hopefully the southern jet gets more active later with some decent cold still around.lot of winter left.ive seen some big snows in February an march.
Click to expand...
Well it's about too.. When the ridge flexes later next week.. But hopefully the cold air beats down on it & we CAD or something.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
These models are on the struggle bus, they literally change every 6 hours for a 4-5 day event. Tough time handling these northern stream waves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It’s always difficult when we’re talking about the timing of multiple pieces of energy phasing together. I think it’s been even more difficult for them with less data going into the models
 
HailCore said:
Pretty shocked at what the 09z RAP does with the first system, although it is an outlier. View attachment 182868
Click to expand...

Footprint of the EURO …. Not insane. I still think with it all the energy flying around footprints merging on the models is the important thing still even for Thursday/Weekend. If they all start to paint the same footprint then we worry with QPF amounts. Again, jmo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
IMG_5836.pngIMG_5837.png
It’s definitely not very impressive and we are basically looking at a 20% chance right now but I’m happy to see the 1-3 inch members and not a bunch of trace members. We just need to hope the energy delivers and the qpf will increase leading up. I know are chances are slim but we aren’t out completely.
 
rburrel2 said:
Umm… just a few more ticks and we rage?

View attachment 182864
Click to expand...

Yeah gotta be careful. That look is not far from a number of very memorable events.

Just FWIW, three events off the top of my head are close to that look, 2014, 2017 and 2018. All three ticked up precip in the final few days and surprised.
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
Overrunning events usually sneak up on you at the last minute. Not too far off there
Click to expand...

I knew you’d be here, pal. You harped on this happening weeks ago in the day 5ish range. Keep bringing the heat. There were only a very few of us who didn’t give up on this.
 
Meh, the Ukie ensembles sucked me in yesterday, and smacked me in the face the next run. Euro gives some hope for eastern sections the last 6z but I'm not falling for it. It's just so generally dry and progressive. Weekend is alive but on extreme life support imo.

More interesting to me is the Euro's insistence of a CAD ice storm in 10 days. That's usually how we roll.
 
GFS & ICON..
Cold & Dry,

But, Wait, theres more!
Rates will over come!
Late Coastal Bloomer?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.pngicon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
 
this may or may not wind up being relevant but just a note, in my last month or two of using the AIFS for temp forecasting it is consistently too warm at night, generally in the 3-5F range. whether it does this during precip events i am not certain, but it could be of note if this sort of situation came to fruition
1768311678253.png

1768311698578.png
here's the proof, left column is max temp error (i.e. verification was 60 while AIFS forecast 56, shows up as -4) and middle column is min temp error (i.e. verification was 38 while AIFS forecast 33, shows up as 5). ignore the rightmost column

1768311727204.png

i tend to think this error is probably smaller with precip falling but could still make a difference. again, not sure if this matters, but wanted to point it out in case it does end up mattering
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top