• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

We probably won’t get anything… but if we do get .10-.15 of liquid up here and in central NC… I think we would be looking at 20:1+ ratios or better. The lift is pretty high up and it’s cold. I think we could see ratios like central nc saw last year from that very light 700mb fronto band that moved through and dropped 1-1.5 inches of snow from .05 liquid.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
Thats why I ignore the UKMET, a very unreliable model.
Click to expand...
Dude the UKMET ranks 2nd to the Euro inthe 5-7 day range. Id advise you to ignore the GFS before the ukie at that range. You can check those verification scores at 500mb at that range. Now is it right today for this event, most likely not. Likely a blend of the euro/ukie is more likely the outcome.
evs.global_det.acc.hgt_p500.last31days.timeseries_valid00z_f120.g004_nhem.png
 
Last edited:
rburrel2 said:
We probably won’t get anything… but if we do get .10-.15 of liquid up here and in central NC… I think we would be looking at 20:1+ ratios or better. The lift is pretty high up and it’s cold. I think we could see ratios like central nc saw last year from that very light 700mb fronto band that moved through and dropped 1-1.5 inches of snow from .05 liquid.
Click to expand...
I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
 
Oconeexman said:
I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
Click to expand...
I've been saying this will end up giving the upstate 1" of snow
 
Oconeexman said:
I definitely do not think we will see a 3 plus inch snow out of this but can believe a widespread yard coater in our parts. Now is the time where the trends should all start lining up..from today till Wednesday. Still has potential to be better but sampling over the next 48hrs will tell alot.
Click to expand...

I was about to say the next couple of days should narrow things down a bit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NBAcentel said:
Welp, it was nice while it lasted. Things don’t trend our way and that’s just how it is View attachment 182812
Click to expand...

I thought I posted this here and not banter…. This is a wash, footprint stayed the same. Yea amounts changed but it didn’t jump 100 miles North or South or East ect….. footprint looks equivalent …. Onward


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This smells like a brutal shot of Arctic air down the line. -AO/artic ridging. The Arctic ridging coupled to the strat. The main cold lobe is sitting in Canada. MJO heading for the Americas. Pacific jet heading back towards and breaking around Hawaii. The stars are aligning pattern wise. But the hurdle is capitalizing on smaller scale features and scoring. That’s the part we just can’t seem to get past IMG_2270.pngIMG_2272.pngIMG_2273.png
 
NBAcentel said:
This smells like a brutal shot of Arctic air down the line. -AO/artic ridging. The Arctic ridging coupled to the strat. The main cold lobe is sitting in Canada. MJO heading for the Americas. Pacific jet heading back towards and breaking around Hawaii. The stars are aligning pattern wise. But the hurdle is capitalizing on smaller scale features and scoring. That’s the part we just can’t seem to get past View attachment 182822View attachment 182825View attachment 182824
Click to expand...

Yeah you can’t ask for a better setup for cold. If we catch the full brunt of one of those arctic shots/PV lobes, it’s going to be pipe burst material.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
accu35 said:
When the short range models start keying in on the late weekend storm will they have a better chance handling the moisture?
Click to expand...
Sure...if there actually IS moisture. Ain't gonna get a lot of moisture with a cold front. Hopefully, we can see better trends with mid level energy.
 
I just saw that the 18Z GEFS was much warmer than the 12Z to the tune of 21 HDDs lower! Hopefully that was just a Happy Hour drunk induced mistake.
 
Appears like areas further south may see higher QPF totals potentially with this 1st system as the southern stream energy tries to get itself briefly involved. This does not mean snow by any means. This is purely rain, may just have some light/moderate rain bands from Central MS, AL, GA, SC
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top