packfan98
Moderator
More precip on the 6z AIFS Euro too, but nothing much on the snow map.
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Pattern January Joke
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trackersacker
Member
Yeah that run was dumb. Literally warms up and rains for 15 minutes this weekend and there’s no other precip
rburrel2
Member
If it would dig and sharpen that trough a tiny bit more we would really be cooking. Still plenty of time. Look what the first trough has done in this time range… went from a NC bowling ball to a Canada crusher.
It’s always difficult when we’re talking about the timing of multiple pieces of energy phasing together. I think it’s been even more difficult for them with less data going into the models
rburrel2
Member
Umm… just a few more ticks and we rage?
packfan98
Moderator
6z AIFS EPS ticked better.
rburrel2
Member
We are back!
HailCore
Member
Pretty shocked at what the 09z RAP does with the first system, although it is an outlier. 
Very hard for me to give up on the weekend system YET with the footprint showing up on ensembles, albeit very light and minimal at the moment. Hopefully we get some more promising trends today.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Footprint of the EURO …. Not insane. I still think with it all the energy flying around footprints merging on the models is the important thing still even for Thursday/Weekend. If they all start to paint the same footprint then we worry with QPF amounts. Again, jmo
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It’s definitely not very impressive and we are basically looking at a 20% chance right now but I’m happy to see the 1-3 inch members and not a bunch of trace members. We just need to hope the energy delivers and the qpf will increase leading up. I know are chances are slim but we aren’t out completely.
Yeah gotta be careful. That look is not far from a number of very memorable events.
Just FWIW, three events off the top of my head are close to that look, 2014, 2017 and 2018. All three ticked up precip in the final few days and surprised.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Overrunning events usually sneak up on you at the last minute. Not too far off there
I knew you’d be here, pal. You harped on this happening weeks ago in the day 5ish range. Keep bringing the heat. There were only a very few of us who didn’t give up on this.
trackersacker
Member
January 2014 is top analog in my mind going forward here
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Need some good mojo, these models have been something else trying to handle the northern stream
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trackersacker
Member
This is a very strong signal here after the last few days we’ve had.
SnowNiner
Member
Meh, the Ukie ensembles sucked me in yesterday, and smacked me in the face the next run. Euro gives some hope for eastern sections the last 6z but I'm not falling for it. It's just so generally dry and progressive. Weekend is alive but on extreme life support imo.
More interesting to me is the Euro's insistence of a CAD ice storm in 10 days. That's usually how we roll.
More interesting to me is the Euro's insistence of a CAD ice storm in 10 days. That's usually how we roll.
Best signal of the winter for most of us.
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That output looks VERY similar to 1/29/2014. I even had to check and see if it was a saved image from 2014.
this may or may not wind up being relevant but just a note, in my last month or two of using the AIFS for temp forecasting it is consistently too warm at night, generally in the 3-5F range. whether it does this during precip events i am not certain, but it could be of note if this sort of situation came to fruition
here's the proof, left column is max temp error (i.e. verification was 60 while AIFS forecast 56, shows up as -4) and middle column is min temp error (i.e. verification was 38 while AIFS forecast 33, shows up as 5). ignore the rightmost column
i tend to think this error is probably smaller with precip falling but could still make a difference. again, not sure if this matters, but wanted to point it out in case it does end up mattering
here's the proof, left column is max temp error (i.e. verification was 60 while AIFS forecast 56, shows up as -4) and middle column is min temp error (i.e. verification was 38 while AIFS forecast 33, shows up as 5). ignore the rightmost column
i tend to think this error is probably smaller with precip falling but could still make a difference. again, not sure if this matters, but wanted to point it out in case it does end up mattering
Yo.. Good LAWWWWD
NCWeatherNow
Member
Its quite simular to the RAP imo with what its showing
HailCore
Member
Man, if this verified, there could be a brief period of snow near Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, and even Columbia! I really hope we see the other 12z models show a similar solution.
9z RAP, 12z HRRR says come in back fellas, we got some cooking to do
LongRanger
Member
So is it gonna take the short range models to figure all this from Thurs to Sun out? Global sure don't have a clue
9z SREF has also increased over the 03z. It's not a lot but it was an increase, which is the direction we want to go.
better than nothing: the 06z weathernext from yesterday vs the 06z this morning
Wondering if the RAP and HRRR are picking up on new data being ingested. If so, the 12z suite ought to look better
That’s a pretty substantial shift right there.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
HRRR and RAP are showing exactly why you should always suspect the unexpected for 2 of these things in this pattern.
A: Baja Cutoff Low
B: Overrunner potential
There have been many times where overrunners have overpreformed and uptrended last second and still overpreforms off those uptrends.
A: Baja Cutoff Low
B: Overrunner potential
There have been many times where overrunners have overpreformed and uptrended last second and still overpreforms off those uptrends.
The WeatherNext is intriguing. Considering it’s the most realible model, makes things more interesting.
While in the end, who knows whether the differences showing up in Canada between models by day will make a difference of note for the weekend system.
The Euro and ICON have introduced yet another SW on the heels of system #2, poised to follow in its footsteps, while the GFS has yet a completely different closed UUL near Hudson Bay sliding eastward.
The point of my post is to point out that with such differences in Canada that have an influence on the PNA ridge and US trough orientation, the final forecast for the weekend is far from settled.
The Euro and ICON have introduced yet another SW on the heels of system #2, poised to follow in its footsteps, while the GFS has yet a completely different closed UUL near Hudson Bay sliding eastward.
The point of my post is to point out that with such differences in Canada that have an influence on the PNA ridge and US trough orientation, the final forecast for the weekend is far from settled.
I had to look it up, but the way these short range models are starting to hint for some areas on Thursday kinda reminds me of this one. This event completely started popping up in the last 48 hours and in fact some local mets here in CLT didn’t even forecast it within 12 hours
What percentage of time would you say, if you had to guess, do the ultra short range models like the HRRRRr and the RAP wildly overdo QPF at the end of their range. If you had to guess.
The RAP is always too cold. Unless it has changed since I last looked at it years ago.