Pattern January Joke

[trackersacker]

I don’t wanna jinx it , but I feel like we’re already trending towards a quicker and further west phase on the 18z GFS than we had on 12z

Lol I jinxed it. It slipped up. Not gonna be as crazy as 12z

 

[FortMillSCWx]

We’ve received 0.0 here in Columbia.

Posted a couple of weeks ago that, for some reason, La Nina...and this pattern is frustrating. West of the apps...rain, rain, rain. East? We can't seem to get ANY rain. Couple that with the incredibly frustrating H pressures that miss time the moisture feed.

We goin' go crazy east of the apps if we can't get a Strong H over Central NY..and the STJ firing. Trends this winter have shown this time and time again.

It was nice to do a 50 mile bike ride and sweat...

 

[HailCore]

Lol I jinxed it. It slipped up. Not gonna be as crazy as 12z

I still think it’s gonna bounce back on 00z. For the past day and a half, the 00z/12z runs have been better while the 06z/18z runs have been worse. The next day or two, I expect both to come to a consensus, and hopefully it’s more of an 00z/12z solution.

 

[packfan98]

Good hit for the mid-Atlantic crew on the gfs

 

[LukeBarrette]

Good hit for the mid-Atlantic crew on the gfs

Aka not a soul on this board

 

[trackersacker]

I still think it’s gonna bounce back on 00z. For the past day and a half, the 00z/12z runs have been better while the 06z/18z runs have been worse. The next day or two, I expect both to come to a consensus, and hopefully it’s more of an 00z/12z solution.

Yeah it’s gonna bounce around for sure

 

[bncho]

Aka not a soul on this board

I liked the GFS

 

[Mitch West]

Here we go. Looks like we got a fresh injection of something going into the 2nd storm.

 

[HailCore]

 

[packfan98]

Coming in hot!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Dirty south boys getting smoked here

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

As I mentioned 48 hours ago, focus should be on system 2.

 

[Mitch West]

Cold going into it.

 

[Mitch West]

@Jimmy Hypocracy it's a delayed Apps cold air special for us lmaoooooo

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That ain’t no small shift..survive and advance..next

 

[Tsappfrog20]

@Jimmy Hypocracy it's a delayed Apps cold air special for us lmaoooooo
View attachment 182290

Yes please!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[JHS]

SC is basically left OUT outside of the mountains. Parts of GA and NC get a good hit.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Jimmy Hypocracy it's a delayed Apps cold air special for us lmaoooooo
View attachment 182290

Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot

 

[Oconeexman]

Nice little change on the gfs from 12z. Still quite a bit to work out on system #2.
Huntsville to Hiawassee gonna get a nice one!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Here we go. Looks like we got a fresh injection of something going into the 2nd storm. View attachment 182284View attachment 182285

Would be so much of a better system if it wasn’t a sheared wave pushing the system quickly through

 

[Oconeexman]

SC is basically left OUT outside of the mountains. Parts of GA and NC get a good hit.

It won't verify like that clown map I bet my house on it. If toccoa Ga gets snow then I get snow...thats how it is.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Have fun guys check yall on the next one

 

[TheBatman]

GFS looks real good for a lot of people on the board. Let’s see what the GEFS says within the hour.

 

[Mitch West]

Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot

Well this did kind of happened in the Mid January 2018 storm. Columbia got completely shafted in a two week span from the North & to the South. But anyways! Nice run from the GFS for many on the board!!

 

[jrips27]

Oddly skips over SC but hey it’s another run showing something for a lot of the board

 

[Stevo24]

Oddly skips over SC but hey it’s another run showing something for a lot of the board View attachment 182296

This will verify don’t worry

 

[HailCore]

The best part about this is the onset time is inside 200 hours (more like 180) which gives us time to work out the details to maybe (hopefully) get a boardwide hit, but also makes it increasingly hard for the entire system to vanish into thin air. Not saying it can’t do that, but it’s much less likely to.

 

[Stormdoc]

That looked more like EURO

Broader trough like the Euro instead of another useless sharp trough. For us east of the apps folks, we need HP in both the northeast and in the Ohio valley to get a storm (banana high)

 

[rburrel2]

Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot

This set up isn’t a death sentence for us bc the air in place ahead of it is pretty cold and dry as well. A slight shift south with the boundary on this run and we’re all snow, start to finish.

As it stands on this run, everything starts off too far north and west and we need some low level caa, (which won’t arrive bc mountains).

The good thing is this is about the most amped and north solution being depicted on modeling. Cold and dry is on a lot of the modeling too. (Umket, Canadian, euro, and euro ens).

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s actually a really smart model to know exactly where there won’t be any snow. I’ll give it that. It’s really ahead of its time in many ways

 

[ontherocks]

A true happy hour? Don’t remember the last one of these…..

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This set up isn’t a death sentence for us bc the air in place ahead of it is pretty cold and dry as well. A slight shift south with the boundary on this run and we’re all snow, start to finish.

I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more

But I guess I see what you mean. How do we keep from scouring this out? There’s some high pressure off the southeastern coast. Maybe we can use that? Idk I’d really like to see this setup evolve but idk what that needs to look like yet

 

[NCWeatherNow]

I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more

What about the Triad area in ur opinion

 

[Stormdoc]

I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more

Unless that L in southern Canada gets replaced by one of those Hs, nobody east of the Apps are getting snow, not just the Lee side folks. If this trends more like the Euro then we have a chance

 

[rburrel2]

I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more

We’re not roasting out ahead of it. No need to panic yet. Hi-res models would have dumped on us with this depiction.

 

[Oconeexman]

View attachment 182298
Unless that L in southern Canada gets replaced by one of those Hs, nobody east of the Apps are getting snow, not just the Lee side folks. If this trends more like the Euro then we have a chance

I agree with thos 100%. Luckily it's the gfs and over a week away. More changes to come.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What about the Triad area in ur opinion

If this happened tomorrow the triad would see snow

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We’re not roasting out ahead of it. No need to panic yet. Hi-res models would have dumped on us with this depiction.

View attachment 182300

You’ve got to get that cold bleeding south prior to precip. There’s got to be some sort of gap between front and rain. Need cold air sagging in some way shape or fashion prior or you can forget about

 

[Rain Cold]

Guys, listen up. We haven't improved very much at all with our model prediction capabilities. Let's step it up! It's about go time.

 

[trackersacker]

Oh snap. 18z GEFS actually went west. Don’t usually see this ensemble abandon its op like that