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Pattern January Joke

GSP Guidance

KEY MESSAGE #1: A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A PAIR OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTS PUSH EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH REGARDING
MOISTURE, SHOWING PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE MODEL DEPICTS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP MOISTURE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS THESE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. WITH MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE ON POPS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHWEST SNOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER BUT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW DEVELOP. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 COULD ALSO SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST MOISTURE
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IF PRECIP DEVELOPS. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
 
Mitch West said:
We’ve received 0.0 here in Columbia.
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Posted a couple of weeks ago that, for some reason, La Nina...and this pattern is frustrating. West of the apps...rain, rain, rain. East? We can't seem to get ANY rain. Couple that with the incredibly frustrating H pressures that miss time the moisture feed.

We goin' go crazy east of the apps if we can't get a Strong H over Central NY..and the STJ firing. Trends this winter have shown this time and time again.

It was nice to do a 50 mile bike ride and sweat... ;)
 
trackersacker said:
Lol I jinxed it. It slipped up. Not gonna be as crazy as 12z
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I still think it’s gonna bounce back on 00z. For the past day and a half, the 00z/12z runs have been better while the 06z/18z runs have been worse. The next day or two, I expect both to come to a consensus, and hopefully it’s more of an 00z/12z solution.
 
Mitch West said:
@Jimmy Hypocracy it's a delayed Apps cold air special for us lmaoooooo
View attachment 182290
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Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot
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Well this did kind of happened in the Mid January 2018 storm. Columbia got completely shafted in a two week span from the North & to the South. But anyways! Nice run from the GFS for many on the board!!
 
The best part about this is the onset time is inside 200 hours (more like 180) which gives us time to work out the details to maybe (hopefully) get a boardwide hit, but also makes it increasingly hard for the entire system to vanish into thin air. Not saying it can’t do that, but it’s much less likely to.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Pretty to see, but unless we form some kind of secondary this will 100% never verify here. The mountains won’t allow it. Idc if it’s a 1070 high on top of Pigeon Forge. It just can’t do it

the triad can do it successfully. Atlanta can do it no problem. We cannot
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This set up isn’t a death sentence for us bc the air in place ahead of it is pretty cold and dry as well. A slight shift south with the boundary on this run and we’re all snow, start to finish.

As it stands on this run, everything starts off too far north and west and we need some low level caa, (which won’t arrive bc mountains).

The good thing is this is about the most amped and north solution being depicted on modeling. Cold and dry is on a lot of the modeling too. (Umket, Canadian, euro, and euro ens).
 
rburrel2 said:
This set up isn’t a death sentence for us bc the air in place ahead of it is pretty cold and dry as well. A slight shift south with the boundary on this run and we’re all snow, start to finish.
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I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more

But I guess I see what you mean. How do we keep from scouring this out? There’s some high pressure off the southeastern coast. Maybe we can use that? Idk I’d really like to see this setup evolve but idk what that needs to look like yet IMG_7427.png
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more
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What about the Triad area in ur opinion
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m looking at it and I just don’t see a scenario where we snow. I mean I know there are scenarios where travelers rest can score in late arriving cold setups but this is certainly not South Carolinas bread and butter setup. As it stands At least. It’s just brutal living on the immediate Lee side. Until you get a wedge but that never even happens any more
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1768085049524.png
Unless that L in southern Canada gets replaced by one of those Hs, nobody east of the Apps are getting snow, not just the Lee side folks. If this trends more like the Euro then we have a chance
 
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