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Pattern January Joke

Stevo24 said:
👉 This alone is a major rework, not a tweak.
That’s what it told me aka not happening lol
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Yes. It also understands that a cold feed of high pressure to the north is “non negotiable” for Carolina snow. And that a maritime centered high in the western Atlantic actually works against you. AI is crazy
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'm good this week, at least through Saturday, per RNK. Cool and DRY! It's a brisk January night out there, 63 degrees... smh
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Yea its balmy esp for early January! Will be windy and brisk seeing off at 0720 tomorrow. Hopefully dries it up a little.
 
rburrel2 said:
i can name at least 4 winter storms here in the last 30 years that had no high pressure to the north. It does happen. And what’s being depicted next Saturday is how it can happen(but needs to remain weak).
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Yea its a delicate situation for us in NW SC for sure. But all this thing needs to do is dig a little more and/or slow down which are both very possible. Now if the euro starts losing it around Tuesday I'll tee up the can.
 
Oconeexman said:
Yea its a delicate situation for us in NW SC for sure. But all this thing needs to do is dig a little more and/or slow down which are both very possible. Now if the euro starts losing it around Tuesday I'll tee up the can.
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North Carolina now has the climate that South Georgia used to have. Sure seems like it
 
The models remain 100% in agreement on predicting a very lengthy phase 6 that covers the upcoming 1/15-19 SE winter storm dual threat period.

During the 15 Jan phase 6 La Nina periods when SE temperatures were MB, B or NN in the aggregate for the phase 6 period, they were often productive for measurable wintry precip in 1+ of ATL, GSP, GSO, and RDU:

-1976 MB RDU 0.4”
-1999 NN GSP 0.7”
-2000 B GSO 6.8”, RDU 5.4”
-2011 MB ATL 4.4”, GSP 6.5”, GSO 1.4”, RDU 0.3”
-2017 MB GSP 1.9”, GSO 6.0”, RDU 0.5”
-2018 NN GSO 0.5”
-2021 NN GSO 0.4”, RDU 1.6”
-2022 B GSO 1.1”, RDU 1.5”
-2022 MB GSO 1.8”, RDU 0.4”

So, 9 of these 15 periods (60%) had measurable wintry precip in at least one of these 4 cities.
 
could still be fools gold. i definitely wrote it off at first as 'pie in the sky'. but becoming more and more interested in how the the 1st shortwave behaves and folds negatively as it approaches the coast. i think there's still plenty of opportunity to get more folks involved (if we trend the right direction). this can be the type of storm that amplifies and sharpens as the short range models get a hold of it.
 
0Z ICON similarly to the 12Z run has historically low H5 hts over N GA of ~520 dm at the N border. Going back to 1948, the only two cases I’ve so far been able to find with lower H5 hts at the N GA border are these:

-~512 dm 1/27/1986 7AM: Asheville plunged to -2 F next day with mid single digits ATL-RDU; this was also during MJO phase 6 and +PNA; it was during cold neutral ENSO, -AO, +NAO, -EPO, and neutral WPO
H5 in upper right panel:
IMG_6884.gif

-~516 dm 3/13/1993 7PM backside of the superstorm, which brought record cold, too; this was during MJO phase 4 and a weak -PNA; warm neutral ENSO, +AO, +NAO, -EPO, -WPO
IMG_6899.gif
 
d8065ef474fa890bd5c4c89e9fae26c0.gif

Not a bad look so far


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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