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Pattern January Joke

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
dead centered us there. Don’t see that very often down hereView attachment 182360
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It’s close to the strength of the 12Z/0Z Icon runs. Should this verify, it might be as deep as the 3rd deepest on record in your area (back to 1948). I so far could find only two deeper, 1/27/1986 at 12Z and 3/14/1993 at 0Z (backside of superstorm). If there are any others, I’ve yet to see them. Keep in mind that I’ve already done a pretty thorough search. So, it’s possible those are the only two. Because of how anomalous the Euro and Icon would be, my guess is that they’re a bit too deep. We’ll see. This will make this extra fun to track!
 
Wow. No shot someone doesn’t get something special if we get a 4.5 sigma anomaly and a track like this. Mountains might get crushed

@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?

Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!

IMG_8708.png

IMG_8707.png
 
jrips27 said:
Wow. No shot someone doesn’t get something special if we get a 4.5 sigma anomaly and a track like this. Mountains might get crushed

@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?

Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!

View attachment 182364

View attachment 182363
Click to expand...
You think more people would see something out of this setup. Kinda got me curious. But the GFS did show more people getting snow outside of the mountains.
 
jrips27 said:
Wow. No shot someone doesn’t get something special if we get a 4.5 sigma anomaly and a track like this. Mountains might get crushed

@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?

Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!

View attachment 182364

View attachment 182363
Click to expand...

It’s quite possible that should this verify closely that it would be the deepest at H5 in that region since 3/14/1993 (backside of superstorm). Also, 1/27/1986 as I mentioned/posted the map. But I now have a 3rd one to add: 0Z on 1/19/1977, which is very close to the depth of what the Euro/Icon have. For those who don’t know what happened on 1/19/1977, it snowed for the first time on record in the Miami area and there was mixed snow with rain in the Bahamas!!
IMG_6905.gif

 
jrips27 said:
Wow. No shot someone doesn’t get something special if we get a 4.5 sigma anomaly and a track like this. Mountains might get crushed

@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?

Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!

View attachment 182364

View attachment 182363
Click to expand...

TheBatman said:
You think more people would see something out of this setup. Kinda got me curious. But the GFS did show more people getting snow outside of the mountains.
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This setup fits in well with the ‘Manitoba Mauler’ types. If this can dig a little more to the south, with the wave remaining strong, it can get more folks involved. Right now on the Euro, surface low that forms on the lee side of the Apps is in Southern VA > off Norfolk. That low forming is indicative of where the storm energy is tracking as the wave crosses the Apps. Need that farther south to get more folks involved.

Storms that fit this profile, but had a farther south track are:
Jan 16, 1965
Feb 5, 1984
Feb 23, 1989
Jan 20, 2009
Jan 16, 2018

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In order to create and maintain as long and reliable record of winter storms as possible in North and South Carolina, the following list of winter storm and seasonal snow/sleet maps for the states of...
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GaWx said:
It’s quite possible that should this verify closely that it would be the deepest at H5 in that region since 3/14/1993 (backside of superstorm). Also, 1/27/1986 as I mentioned/posted the map. But I now have a 3rd one to add: 0Z on 1/19/1977, which is very close to the depth of what the Euro/Icon have. For those who don’t know what happened on 1/19/1977, it snowed for the first time on record in the Miami area and there was mixed snow with rain in the Bahamas!!
View attachment 182372

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Joe Bastardi literally mentioned the 1986 analog for this week in his Saturday summary video today because a snowstorm happened during a phase 6 👀
 
Of note, this storm 1 wave is entering the U.S. in E MN here on the Euro. For each of the storms I listed above in the previous post, the wave entered the U.S. in NDakota, except for Jan 20, 2009 which also entered in MN. But the point is, the farther east the wave enters the U.S., the more "work" that has to be done to get the wave to dig far enough to the south and west.

Jan 11 Wave.png
 
griteater said:
Of note, this storm 1 wave is entering the U.S. in E MN here on the Euro. For each of the storms I listed above in the previous post, the wave entered the U.S. in NDakota, except for Jan 20, 2009 which also entered in MN. But the point is, the farther east the wave enters the U.S., the more "work" that has to be done to get the wave to dig far enough to the south and west.

View attachment 182373
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Certainly making some big strides though. But bet the run 2 run changes start slowing down soon especially as sampling occurs over the next few days IMG_2180.gif
 
The way I see it, one of the best parts of the first system is that a lot of folks are squarely in the game and we’re only 4-5 days out. We’ve been posting 300+ hour maps all winter and we finally have the chance at something. Maybe even something special! Enjoy the ride y’all!

Let’s keep this trend going in the morning @Mitch West
IMG_8712.gif
 
trackersacker said:
Joe Bastardi literally mentioned the 1986 analog for this week in his Saturday summary video today because a snowstorm happened during a phase 6 👀
Click to expand...

Indeed, this shows the phase 6 that JB referred to:
IMG_6906.gif

This lead to a very cold 24 the next morning at Cape Canaveral, which sadly lead to the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster. :(
 
0f1e9ed9f6e3816d41e77957e3437947.jpg

It’s just hard to believe there isn’t better precip at the surface with a look like that. Maybe that will change in future runs.


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GFS this morning doesn't work out, but that's been the thing lately. It'll show a banger, then back off a tad, then another banger, then back off. We just need to keep that consistent movement in one direction. She's just a little late with the pop off.gfs-deterministic-east-z500_anom-8510800 (1).pnggfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-8510800 (2).png
 
Mitch West said:
GFS this morning doesn't work out, but that's been the thing lately. It'll show a banger, then back off a tad, then another banger, then back off. We just need to keep that consistent movement in one direction. She's just a little late with the pop off.View attachment 182385View attachment 182386
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A little bit further north with the cut off/upper low too. As Ross was saying earlier, these models won’t fully capture how this setup plays out until we’re 2-3 days out.


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