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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
Really getting close to a whopper ULL setup. Dig it earlier and further SW and this becomes a bigger deal 
Euro
trackersacker
Member
The southern apps are gonna get absolutely buried
Mobile would be nice.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Synoptically very pleasing
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
At this juncture, if you are planning on heading to the Apps for a snow chase. Be ready for really good ratios and very heavy snow in banding
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Personally just hoping this comes to me instead. I'm just outside the alps. just hoping for some luck here lol.
trackersacker
Member
I’ve died and gone to heaven
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Trends have been overall in the right direction for a proper phase but given history it'll probably be just late.
Euro @180
congrats Florence?
congrats Florence?
Big differences in Models 8 days out. So which will it be????
Bigger deal for just the south or up into the mid alantic also just south dc
accu35
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Take a blend of GFS and Euro and we still should have some moisture for the southeast
dead centered us there. Don’t see that very often down here
NBAcentel
Member
1 more trend south the with closed off ULL wouldn’t hurt here 
It’s close to the strength of the 12Z/0Z Icon runs. Should this verify, it might be as deep as the 3rd deepest on record in your area (back to 1948). I so far could find only two deeper, 1/27/1986 at 12Z and 3/14/1993 at 0Z (backside of superstorm). If there are any others, I’ve yet to see them. Keep in mind that I’ve already done a pretty thorough search. So, it’s possible those are the only two. Because of how anomalous the Euro and Icon would be, my guess is that they’re a bit too deep. We’ll see. This will make this extra fun to track!
The more this rollover ridge rises and stretches NE up thru central Canada, the more our storm #1 wave will want to dig & trend south & southwest
Wow. No shot someone doesn’t get something special if we get a 4.5 sigma anomaly and a track like this. Mountains might get crushed
@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?
Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!
@GaWx not sure if your database extends to 500mb stuff but is there any precedent for this track/strength?
Edit: I see your post above but would love more details if you have time. Thanks!
You think more people would see something out of this setup. Kinda got me curious. But the GFS did show more people getting snow outside of the mountains.
NBAcentel
Member
Time to rage. Pizza on deck 
Well don’t have snow map for the Euro AI but does show precip for system #2 
EPS coming in deeper
NBAcentel
Member
I’ll take the over on this going up as long as this slowing/deepening trend continues 
EPS improves for both storms I think. This is total but there’s two distinct increases centered around our timeframes
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Surprised at the lack of QPF response with this anomalous pattern. One thing's for sure; there's some cold air associated with that set up.
It’s quite possible that should this verify closely that it would be the deepest at H5 in that region since 3/14/1993 (backside of superstorm). Also, 1/27/1986 as I mentioned/posted the map. But I now have a 3rd one to add: 0Z on 1/19/1977, which is very close to the depth of what the Euro/Icon have. For those who don’t know what happened on 1/19/1977, it snowed for the first time on record in the Miami area and there was mixed snow with rain in the Bahamas!!
This setup fits in well with the ‘Manitoba Mauler’ types. If this can dig a little more to the south, with the wave remaining strong, it can get more folks involved. Right now on the Euro, surface low that forms on the lee side of the Apps is in Southern VA > off Norfolk. That low forming is indicative of where the storm energy is tracking as the wave crosses the Apps. Need that farther south to get more folks involved.
Storms that fit this profile, but had a farther south track are:
Jan 16, 1965
Feb 5, 1984
Feb 23, 1989
Jan 20, 2009
Jan 16, 2018
About
In order to create and maintain as long and reliable record of winter storms as possible in North and South Carolina, the following list of winter storm and seasonal snow/sleet maps for the states of...
www.webberweather.com
trackersacker
Member
Joe Bastardi literally mentioned the 1986 analog for this week in his Saturday summary video today because a snowstorm happened during a phase 6
Of note, this storm 1 wave is entering the U.S. in E MN here on the Euro. For each of the storms I listed above in the previous post, the wave entered the U.S. in NDakota, except for Jan 20, 2009 which also entered in MN. But the point is, the farther east the wave enters the U.S., the more "work" that has to be done to get the wave to dig far enough to the south and west.
trackersacker
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Certainly making some big strides though. But bet the run 2 run changes start slowing down soon especially as sampling occurs over the next few days
The way I see it, one of the best parts of the first system is that a lot of folks are squarely in the game and we’re only 4-5 days out. We’ve been posting 300+ hour maps all winter and we finally have the chance at something. Maybe even something special! Enjoy the ride y’all!
Let’s keep this trend going in the morning @Mitch West
Let’s keep this trend going in the morning @Mitch West
Joe Bastardi literally mentioned the 1986 analog for this week in his Saturday summary video today because a snowstorm happened during a phase 6
Indeed, this shows the phase 6 that JB referred to:
This lead to a very cold 24 the next morning at Cape Canaveral, which sadly lead to the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster.
trackersacker
Member
End of the EPS trending colder. Already looks like we’re active and cold enough for snow down to I-40 by the 25th. Thank you phase 8? 360 hour snowfall mean
trackersacker
Member
Bro this might as well be a blizzard in the high elevations of the Southern Apps
Insane trends overnight