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Pattern January Joke

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It’s just hard to believe there isn’t better precip at the surface with a look like that. Maybe that will change in future runs.


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GFS this morning doesn't work out, but that's been the thing lately. It'll show a banger, then back off a tad, then another banger, then back off. We just need to keep that consistent movement in one direction. She's just a little late with the pop off.gfs-deterministic-east-z500_anom-8510800 (1).pnggfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-8510800 (2).png
 
Mitch West said:
GFS this morning doesn't work out, but that's been the thing lately. It'll show a banger, then back off a tad, then another banger, then back off. We just need to keep that consistent movement in one direction. She's just a little late with the pop off.View attachment 182385View attachment 182386
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A little bit further north with the cut off/upper low too. As Ross was saying earlier, these models won’t fully capture how this setup plays out until we’re 2-3 days out.


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rburrel2 said:
06z Gfs looks good for the 2nd system. Also gfs ai with great trends for system 2 as well.

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Yeah I noticed that too, maybe a rain/snow mix further east in NC later on. It was hard to tell on TT. Surface temps were still above freezing from what I could tell. Hopefully this will trend better too. Need more of a cold air press. Plenty of time for changes.


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Official Guidance from NWS GSP

KEY MESSAGE #1: CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP

THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY MID-WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE Z500
SPEED MAXXES DIP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP, ELONGATED TROUGH EASING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
COMPLEX, WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND A DISTINCT COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP
ALONG THE NC-SC COASTLINE. THE TROUGH WILL FIRST INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST, PRODUCING AN OPEN WAVE (OR PERHAPS, AS
IN SOME GEFS SOLUTIONS, A CLOSED LOW) ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVATION OF THE COASTAL
FRONT WON'T TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATER - WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY, AT WHICH POINT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TAKE PLACE.

THE RESULT, UNFORTUNATELY, IS A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN FORECAST SCENARIO.
ON THE ONE HAND, THE FIRST LOW LOOKS AN AWFUL LOT LIKE A TYPICAL
CLIPPER LOW; INDEED, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH ESCAPING THE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND EXPANDING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE COASTAL FRONT PRESENTS A
UNIQUE COMPLICATING FACTOR: UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THE MOISTURE
NEEDED TO PRODUCE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NEED TO COME
FROM THE ATLANTIC, BUT THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD FUNCTION ESSENTIALLY
AS A MOISTURE SINK...KEEPING MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT US. SUCH A DRIER SOLUTION IS DEPICTED IN
THE OPERATIONAL GDPS, AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CMC-GEPS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW - WITH LITTLE IF ANY
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA.
 
packfan98 said:
Well, the threats are dwindling for my back yard for this week. Maybe the next time period of interest will turn out better? MJO should be more favorable by then.
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@Mitch West we aren’t done yet!
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Brother I really don't think we are done with this one. But yeh, I think we have some good times coming up. MJO looks to boat race into 8.ECMF (3).png
 
packfan98 said:
6z AI Euro is not looking good. We are trending to an east TN and mountains to DC threat. Still some boom potential with the ULL that’s always a bit of a wild card though.

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Unfortunately this has been a trend too, whether rain or snow.
 
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RBR71 said:
Well as bad as the NAM can be 2 things I've always thought it did fairly well: at H5 and picking up warm layers in winter events. Not a good start to 12z suite but again it is LR NAM
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Those were the 6Z runs. 12Z is running now. And yes, I'm refreshing often, lol.
 
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