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Pattern January Joke

Official Guidance
1052 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

Reports of light to moderate snow with gusty winds are coming out
of the North Carolina mountains. Snow will continue to fall
through the early afternoon hours with wind gusts of 20-30 mph,
and locally stronger gusts at higher elevations. A light dusting
of snow is possible, with up to an inch at the highest peaks.

Use cautions when driving as the potential for slippery road
conditions are possible.IMG_8277.png
 
unfortunately i respect the ICON (& RGEM’s) upper air assessments too much as models to see this as a home run just yet. IMG_2323.pngIMG_2324.png
 
The second timeframe has a trick up its sleeve. We haven’t even found out what exact set up we are even dealing with. Euro as empty as it’s been at the surface the last few runs has shown a lot of energy flying around. And it’s shown some at the surface in the form of Deep South light snow. Something is there.
 
shicks said:
For what reason? This isn't to disagree, to be clear, just a newbie trying to learn
Click to expand...

I’m talking about taking the heavy amounts with a humongous grain. Because:
-It’s the GFS out a week
-Other models have much less
-It’s an unusual setup to get heavy snow. These amounts are more typically what you’d see with a Miller A low and one that skims Gulf coast or crosses N or C FL
-Prior GEFS runs had few members with this much. Let’s see what 12Z shows.
-GFS itself is jumping all around:

IMG_6921.gif
 
GaWx said:
I’m talking about taking the heavy amounts with a humongous grain. Because:
-It’s the GFS out a week
-Other models have much less
-It’s an unusual setup to get heavy snow. These amounts are more typically what you’d see with a Miller A low and one that skims Gulf coast or crosses N or C FL
-Prior GEFS runs had few members with this much. Let’s see what 12Z shows.
-GFS itself is jumping all around:

View attachment 182462
Click to expand...
Thank you!
 
GaWx said:
It hasn’t at all been consistent on amounts. See gif below.
Regardless, even it if had been consistent, it’s the 7 day GFS that strongly disagrees with other models, including better ones.
View attachment 182466
Click to expand...
Just mean it's been consistent on a storm for some of us. Of course the amount/timing and exact location changes some, but it hasn't backed off.
 
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