Tsappfrog20
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
rburrel2
Member
This is good… very good for upstate SC. I bet the 18z euro ai snow mean will be up again.
GEFS is much improved for western areas
rburrel2
Member
18z euro ai is very weak and fizzling with the band of precip moving in Saturday morning. Beautiful look. Temps in place are supportive of snow without being overwhelmed by waa. It’s a fine line… but I like this look right now.
Here are the individual members from the gefs. Several big dogs, lot of nothings but much more noise for sure.
Getting some 12/8/17 vibes for our area but definitely seeing some big potential. Hope we can increase those the next few suites. That AI Euro looks nice.
Getting some 12/8/17 vibes for our area but definitely seeing some big potential. Hope we can increase those the next few suites. That AI Euro looks nice.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Absolutely. They have done a great job of programming into this model that mother nature does not allow snow in SC; outside of the occasional coastal; and that outputs should portray such. This at least shows where snow is possible and where it is not.
18z GFS sends the next Arctic blast after MLK day down the west coast. Seems like GFS frequently does this in the long range, so I don't really take it seriously.
HailCore
Member
Does anybody have good news coming off the 18z Euro for system 1?
it was a no go.
rburrel2
Member
My two cents: for upstate, SC.
System 1: never been a real possibility and it’s completely dead at this point.
System 2 is most likely going to be a weakish band of precip. We’re gonna have better thermal profiles as a result, maybe good enough for snow north of i85. But we’re going to be fighting for qpf all week. Much more likely to lose this storm to no or little qpf then to lose it to heavy rain. As far a temps… we will be fighting for better cold out ahead of the storm, not for better caa as the storm moves through; that likely wont matter or come in to play, imo.
As such, I like where we sit right now. If we can hold on to a storm signal the next few days.
System 1: never been a real possibility and it’s completely dead at this point.
System 2 is most likely going to be a weakish band of precip. We’re gonna have better thermal profiles as a result, maybe good enough for snow north of i85. But we’re going to be fighting for qpf all week. Much more likely to lose this storm to no or little qpf then to lose it to heavy rain. As far a temps… we will be fighting for better cold out ahead of the storm, not for better caa as the storm moves through; that likely wont matter or come in to play, imo.
As such, I like where we sit right now. If we can hold on to a storm signal the next few days.
HailCore
Member
Oh well, on to 00z.
You listed two things that both sound terrible lol no storm for round 1 and little to no qpf for round 2. How do you still like where we stand with those 2 scenarios? Unless your fine with a possible dusting for round 2. Just curious.
trackersacker
Member
18z EPS however is different. Tick deeper and SW
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Keeeeeeep!!
Okay continue on.
Okay continue on.
rburrel2
Member
A realistic outcome right now is a .2-.4 liquid event with 2-3 inches snow. That’s a very classic type of storm for us and wouldn’t shock me if that’s what we get here. That’s the hope for us, imo. Anything bigger is gonna be like 1/100 lottery odds.
rburrel2
Member
18z euro ai mean cut way back on total for tn/nc because it has lots more dry members. But overall the foot print stayed the same if not shifted south and east a little.
This is not an awful spot to be in(if you’re in north ga/northern upstate sc).
This is not an awful spot to be in(if you’re in north ga/northern upstate sc).
rburrel2
Member
One more thing and I’m done. Haha
Euro ai mean and gfs ai mean want to have this weak band arrive in north ga/western upstate Saturday morning. If we get arrival that early… it’s 100% gonna be an all snow event(assuming adequate qpf to wetbulb). The air mass left behind from storm 1 is super dry and plenty cold. We’re gonna be at like 34/10 Saturday morning before precip arrives. You don’t rain from that.
Euro ai mean and gfs ai mean want to have this weak band arrive in north ga/western upstate Saturday morning. If we get arrival that early… it’s 100% gonna be an all snow event(assuming adequate qpf to wetbulb). The air mass left behind from storm 1 is super dry and plenty cold. We’re gonna be at like 34/10 Saturday morning before precip arrives. You don’t rain from that.
If I had to guess on the dry members showing up. I would think the energy didn’t link up like it was on the earlier up. (Energy got left behind).
where in the triad are you located?
NCWeatherNow
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I noticed on the GEFS, that trough is trying to dig more to the SW toward TX/NM by Saturday morning. Also noticed the Atlantic ridge trying to poke westward. Might not mean much in the grand scheme of things, but interesting nonetheless.
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NCWeatherNow
Member
I'm good this week, at least through Saturday, per RNK. Cool and DRY! It's a brisk January night out there, 63 degrees... smh
Brent
Member
Ha we had a cold front to go back to average here. Back above normal Monday Tuesday... Wednesday.... Thursday... Friday... Now remember it's been above normal for a month straight basically
Which is more emotionally draining? Model runs when it comes to snow in the south or Carolina Panthers football?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
All week and the Announcers today have said most of the game that the panthers shouldn’t even be here.
It's really almost about to drive me away from the love of chasing the elusive WINTER STORMS. It just stinks anymore. But I can't help it. What time does the 00z ICON start? I need help!!! lol
Panthers game finish has me feeling like the nam showing thermal issues 24hrs out
Brent
Member
Yeah I've chased west the last couple winters for real but this year I dunno I just don't have the vibes. I checked Lake Tahoe where I sort of have a backup plan last night and it had highs in the 50s multiple days. Even Breckenridge has days above freezing! Like thats crazy
MRKEVIN7575
Member
Imo, if the mjo move is legit, we should see colder trends with the models in the next few days east of the rockies. Also, you will want to see a west shift with the trough to have a legit chance at snow in the south with next weekend system
Definitely not like it was when we were growing up around here. Always saw snow. Sometimes for two days
winston salem here
This Jan of 2011 major winter storm that covered N AL/much of TN & NC/N & C GA/SC was like the upcoming threat period also during La Nina, a long MJO phase 6, -WPO, and -EPO.
I fed ChatGPT this vort map and asked it what the Carolinas needed for a snowstorm
there’s more and I’m actually shocked how good it is at meteorology
there’s more and I’m actually shocked how good it is at meteorology
Yes. It also understands that a cold feed of high pressure to the north is “non negotiable” for Carolina snow. And that a maritime centered high in the western Atlantic actually works against you. AI is crazyThis alone is a major rework, not a tweak.
That’s what it told me aka not happening lol
Oconeexman
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Yea its balmy esp for early January! Will be windy and brisk seeing off at 0720 tomorrow. Hopefully dries it up a little.
rburrel2
Member
i can name at least 4 winter storms here in the last 30 years that had no high pressure to the north. It does happen. And what’s being depicted next Saturday is how it can happen(but needs to remain weak).