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Pattern January Joke

I'm hoping the latest model runs are a sign of more positive trends to come. There are many solutions that may occur for both events. We will know more about the first potential storm when the energy reaches the West Coast and it can be sampled. The next threat will still be a wait and see but it would be nice to receive a one two winter weather punch.
 
I like the N/S slowing down and digging west a lot. I think we aren’t far at all from an I20 north special. I still lean to the 2nd storm having the best option to score here. I also think you’ll see the flow in the northern branch slow down the closer we get IF we continue strengthening storm 1. That’s the key. You want it bombing as it goes NE. It would likely be the rare ice to snow changeover for those of us east of the apps if we can get the players on the field to cooperate
 
NCWeatherNow said:
In my opinion.

Models are still having a hard time figuring out the next week or so.

Realistically we might start seeing model agreement by the middle to later part of this week.

We might not get a storm sure, but the ceiling is pretty high with this overall setup so if everything lines up there could easily be snowfall.
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Glad the mods changed your attitude 🤣
 
Parker said:
View attachment 182257
Hope those of yall to the East get something like this soon. @JHS look at this
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I saw a graphic a few days ago I think is was from Tim Buckley and it said that we needed just about this much rain in order to really handle our drought situation because we are at Severe Drought rn

Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk
 
jrips27 said:
Nashville or Gatlinburg? Where is the weenie-mobile heading?
View attachment 182217
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I'm telling y'all. Come up here where I'm at in Beech Mountain. 5300" elevation, right on the TN/NC line, western facing slopes, non tourist trap places like in Pigeon Forge (other than ski resort). Y'all come on up and we will have a nice ole party. I don't know if I want to see 26" like it shows here on this map though.
 
Gopack42 said:
I'm telling y'all. Come up here where I'm at in Beech Mountain. 5300" elevation, right on the TN/NC line, western facing slopes, non tourist trap places like in Pigeon Forge (other than ski resort). Y'all come on up and we will have a nice ole party. I don't know if I want to see 26" like it shows here on this map though.
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Y’all better listen to this man
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Here was the eps and gefs snow means at roughly the same juncture before the big gulf coast blizzard. Signal, but far from dialed View attachment 182271View attachment 182272
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Yeah, we are nowhere close to this type of signal yet. We are 1/2” for one system and 1/2” for another approximately. I’m definitely hoping we get solidly in the 1-2” mean s by Monday’s runs.
 
Here’s where my backyard stands at the moment on the EPS. I’ll say that over the past 2 days, the boom potential has dwindled on the ensembles even though we’ve seen a few hits on the op runs. Still definitely up in the air though with a tricky setup and several days left.
IMG_7839.png
 
GSP Guidance

KEY MESSAGE #1: A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A PAIR OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTS PUSH EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH REGARDING
MOISTURE, SHOWING PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE MODEL DEPICTS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP MOISTURE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS THESE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. WITH MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE ON POPS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHWEST SNOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER BUT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW DEVELOP. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 COULD ALSO SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST MOISTURE
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IF PRECIP DEVELOPS. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
 
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