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Pattern January Joke

MichaelJ said:
That EPS run gave me pause as to where we are headed. It looks like a very possible scenario which we have seen already recently, namely the cold is bottled up North and cuts us off from the temps needed to give us wintry weather. I realize we are a ways out to make definitive statements, but it does not make me feel good to see it contradict the other modeling, hopefully it will go towards the other models rather than them going towards it.
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Where is the EPS contradicting the other modeling?

Jan 7 Ens Loop.gif
 
Parker said:
Already have 10 cabins saved for the wife to review for MLK weekend. Historically been money for snow up there the last 10 years for our family. 🤞

Anywhere off ski mountain road, preferably closer to ober Gatlinburg. It’s wild the difference in the top and the bottom of the mountain. I target 2800-3000 feet in elevation. Never fails me.

Great thing about Gatlinburg is they keep the roads maintained as well.
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We found that out last year with 4” on MLK. Bummer was we were in a hotel and all the restaurants started closing when the snow got heavy. We found one open and had one of the worst Italian meals of my life. We’re going back this year so maybe the luck will hold.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
And now the downtrend starts.
😭
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Lol come on man.

I will say, normally one set of bad runs sets off a chain reaction. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they sucked again overnight then perked right back up in 24 hours. Figuring out a trend has to be looked at broadly timeframe wise. What is the trajectory over a few days span for example.
 
Mitch West said:
Lol come on man.

I will say, normally one set of bad runs sets off a chain reaction. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they sucked again overnight then perked right back up in 24 hours. Figuring out a trend has to be looked at broadly timeframe wise. What is the trajectory over a few days span for example.
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I wouldn't be shocked to see western troughs by 00z
 
rburrel2 said:
18z Euro ai has a weak but cold overrunning event at hr264. So signal not completely lost.
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bncho said:
Trends have been good for Jan 15. That wave is trending deeper and slower, exactly what we want for a big storm. Regardless, we need to play our cards perfectly for snow across the general region or it'll be a rain/slop storm unless you live in W
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KyloG said:
Trying…maybe more of a MA-NE potential though

View attachment 181641
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Trad 18Z GFS was a few pixels away from turning that trough negative, not sure what all the negativity is for.
 
Chazwin said:
Did you ever think that we would see the LaNina die out so quickly and then possibly go straight into an El Niño?
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I noted this was a possibility all the way back in early November actually.

Between then and now and a stretch around mid December or so where I had some truly awful takes (lol), it took me until a few weeks ago to fully bite on this idea of a rapid enough collapse to impact late winter. At least way back in early Nov, I told you how it would have to happen if we were to deviate from the Nina script in Feb this year.

Webberweather53 said:
Imho, tho we've had some good stretches here and there, I would say that December as a whole this year is probably about as favorable as it has looked at this range in a very long time.

January could be intriguing and I wouldn't be shocked if there are at least occasional favorable opportunities intermixed with stretches of SE ridging.

Imho, our best (& possibly only) shot to come away with a good February this winter is if the eastern edge of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool advances more quickly than expected, which would invigorate convective heating closer to the Central Pacific & possibly help dislodge the Aleutian-Gulf of Alaska ridge eastward/closer to the US West Coast. This is something we've occasionally seen play out in heavy +TNH/-EPO winters like 2013-14 & 2014-15.
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Webberweather53 said:
La Niña is living on borrowed time.

The only reason the extreme -IOD event we're currently seeing is going to collapse is because all of the warm water is about to get flushed into the tropical west pacific at depth over the next month or two in this MJO event's westerly wind burst. Another solid subsequent MJO burst over the West Pacific later in the winter would lead to rapid onset of El Nino conditions this spring.

A more rapid shift towards El Niño is probably the one wild card we could play that would have the potential to significantly alter the outcome of the latter part of this winter/February in our favor (though even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that things would shift favorably even in that scenario).

View attachment 176055
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Joe Bastardi seems to be of the mindset that after our next cold snap that the pattern may not have sustained staying power. He thinks that by the time the mjo gets to phase 8 that we will have lost the wpo teleconnection and that our source region will be flooded with warm air.
 
packfan98 said:
Joe Bastardi seems to be of the mindset that after our next cold snap that the pattern may not have sustained staying power. He thinks that by the time the mjo gets to phase 8 that we will have lost the wpo teleconnection and that our source region will be flooded with warm air.
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I can see that. I get cold sweats when i hear the word el nino. Last few have absoloutely drowned Canada with pacific Air. And it doesnt move,just re loads continously.

Anxiously awaiting southern skies update. Havent had one in 3 days.
 
Of the 3 18z operational runs, 2 of them (GFS, AI Euro) renewed the western ridging after moving a piece of it NW across the Bering Sea. This was good to see as previous runs for both of those models (and others of course) were launching the western ridging into the Bering Sea and into NE Siberia.....but unless we see a noteworthy -EAMT event, bouts of renewed western ridging is more along the lines of what I would expect to see, with the Pac Jet maintaining its momentum east, in the final 10 days of January and first 10 days of February as the tropical convection signal / MJO works thru phase 7 and into phase 8, in concert with the eastward moving tropical Pacific warm pool.

Right or wrong, I'm as much a pattern nut as I am a find a storm nut as I'm of the ilk that if you build the pattern, the storms will come. We're not where we need to be with the pattern, but we're getting closer

Here's an image of the renewed ridging on the 2 model runs...
Jan 7 18 GFS.png

Jan 7 18 Euro AI.png



Last 7 runs of the Euro Wk MJO forecast

Jan 7 Eur MJO Loop.gif
 
packfan98 said:
The 18z AI eps has one of the best means I’ve seen recently as well.
View attachment 181647
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Better…but still paltry for southern piedmont south. Baby steps hopefully. My long range unscientific threshold is a 2 inch mean to my south into SC to be game on.

Best case scenario the western trough never materializes and the eastern trough just gets deeper and colder. Silver medal, we get some SE ridge, unideal pacific, but a nice -nao with a 50/50 low superwedging us into overrunning or a miller B.
 
griteater said:
Of the 3 18z operational runs, 2 of them (GFS, AI Euro) renewed the western ridging after moving a piece of it NW across the Bering Sea. This was good to see as previous runs for both of those models (and others of course) were launching the western ridging into the Bering Sea and into NE Siberia.....but unless we see a noteworthy -EAMT event, bouts of renewed western ridging is more along the lines of what I would expect to see, with the Pac Jet maintaining its momentum east, in the final 10 days of January and first 10 days of February as the tropical convection signal / MJO works thru phase 7 and into phase 8, in concert with the eastward moving tropical Pacific warm pool.

Right or wrong, I'm as much a pattern nut as I am a find a storm nut as I'm of the ilk that if you build the pattern, the storms will come. We're not where we need to be with the pattern, but we're getting closer

Here's an image of the renewed ridging on the 2 model runs...
View attachment 181648

View attachment 181649



Last 7 runs of the Euro Wk MJO forecast

View attachment 181650
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Those h5 looks pretty good though to me. What are they missing that you’d like to see, to have a great pattern? Deeper tough to the south?
 
SnowNiner said:
Better…but still paltry for southern piedmont south. Baby steps hopefully. My long range unscientific threshold is a 2 inch mean to my south into SC to be game on.

Best case scenario the western trough never materializes and the eastern trough just gets deeper and colder. Silver medal, we get some SE ridge, unideal pacific, but a nice -nao with a 50/50 low superwedging us into overrunning or a miller B.
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1-2” means showing up when we are still 10-14 days away from any realistic opportunity isn’t paltry
 
packfan98 said:
Joe Bastardi seems to be of the mindset that after our next cold snap that the pattern may not have sustained staying power. He thinks that by the time the mjo gets to phase 8 that we will have lost the wpo teleconnection and that our source region will be flooded with warm air.
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Yep, he's been saying that for a few days now. That will most likely be the only thing that can ruin this February, and you just know in the back of your mind it will probably happen. Phase 6 MJO stinks in January!
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
Yep, he's been saying that for a few days now. That will most likely be the only thing that can ruin this February, and you just know in the back of your mind it will probably happen.
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Bastardi is fun to read and listen to, but I don't know why anybody thinks anybody else actually knows how the weather is going to turn out 45 days from now, unless there's some overwhelming driver, which in this case, there's really not. Plus, he has been wrong (as have many others) several times this winter already.
 
Rain Cold said:
Bastardi is fun to read and listen to, but I don't know why anybody thinks anybody else actually knows how the weather is going to turn out 45 days from now, unless there's some overwhelming driver, which in this case, there's really not. Plus, he has been wrong (as have many others) several times this winter already.
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It's the only weather you got.. haven't watched his Long Ranger vids since they were free on Accuwx 20+ years ago. But who else remembers the trough east of HI = no SW trough!
 
wow said:
It's the only weather you got.. haven't watched his Long Ranger vids since they were free on Accuwx 20+ years ago. But who else remembers the trough east of HI = no SW trough!
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I’ve heard lots folks mention that over the years but I’m honestly have looked to see if it holds any weight.
 
wow said:
It's the only weather you got.. haven't watched his Long Ranger vids since they were free on Accuwx 20+ years ago. But who else remembers the trough east of HI = no SW trough!
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Oh yeah man I remember that!
 
bncho said:
Trends have been good for Jan 15. That wave is trending deeper and slower, exactly what we want for a big storm. Regardless, we need to play our cards perfectly for snow across the general region or it'll be a rain/slop storm unless you live in WV.View attachment 181630
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See that vortex east of James Bay? If that continues trending ese that'll lower hights along the east coast and prehaps act as a 50/50ish low.
 
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