• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

Billypg70 said:
The best of both worlds,
Plenty of cold air to our north (La Nina like) with a stout STJ to our South (EL Nino like).
I
I'll take it!
Click to expand...
Yes. This is exactly how you get big phasing east coast winter storms. In the middle of a big macro transition. And timed with entire EC hitting peak climo. The timing seems better than good. All you can ask for is a chance. I think this is sort of what Glenn Burns has been hounding on here in the last week. Also the strat stuff. Now, we all just need a little luck. Somebody will get smoked. Why not us?
 
olhausen said:
Gfs trying to give another historic winter storm to the Deep South. Probably never gonna happen but it’s good to see fantasy runs after things looked not so great earlier this month.
View attachment 181607
Click to expand...
No offense but tropical tidbits has the absolute worse snow estimates.

Half of that is zr
 

Attachments

  • snku_acc-imp.conus (1).png
    snku_acc-imp.conus (1).png
    445.7 KB · Views: 81
We have the best of both worlds with what I would consider a neutral La Nina/El Nino phase coming up for the rest of January and February. There will be plenty of cold air to play with after the 15th and the Southern jet stream may finally be open for business. I think we may see several potential events, any one of which or more than one, that could produce some winter precipitation for the Southeast.
 
Last edited:
Euro Weeklies look strong to me. Colder and better looking 5H pattern.

The control run would shutdown Atlanta.

1770508800-QEXr7mH4EJY.png

1771718400-GBDQcXxud0Y.png
 
When models start getting active with repeated SE winter storm runs, that’s when I like to dust off the studies I’ve compiled for the different indices for major snows as they can give an idea of favorability vs unfavorability. Much of this I’ve posted here.

The last few GFS/Euro have suggested 1-2 SE storm threats mainly within 1/17-23

For the 37 RDU and/or GSO 6”+ SN/IP storms since 1950: (this analysis doesn’t pertain to primarily ZR storms):

1. PNA most important single index: Why?

# of storms/PNA:

- +PNA: 20; neutral PNA 10; -PNA: 7
- So, ~3 times as many for +PNA vs -PNA
- Interestingly though, the strongest -PNA for one of these was the -1.1 for 2/12-13/2014.
- 0Z GEFS fcast: +PNA til 1/18, then neutral , then negative. The timing of this progged PNA drop may be crucial.
IMG_6831.png

2. NAO/AO not as crucial as PNA
- The AO has been neutral more often than not for RDU storms.

- -NAO: 15; neutral NAO: 10; +NAO: 12
- So, -NAO slight ad. but much more balanced vs PNA
-GEFS forecast for then: -AO/neutral NAO

3. For the 21 6”+ RDU/GSO storms 1975+:
MJO phases with most storms:[/b]
-3: 4.5
-7: 3.5
-5: 3
-8: 2.5
-1: 2.5
-4: 2.5
-2: 1.5
-6: 1

The GEFS/EPS is progging phase 6/7 during the crucial days. Phase 6 is relatively unfavorable, but phase 7 is relatively favorable. So, the EPS MJO prog would be strongly preferred.
 
NBAcentel said:
The control looks amazing. Clean phase 8 MJO with the pulse moving into the americas and heavy subsidence over the maritime. Probably why the control has a stupid good pattern to end out jan View attachment 181620
Click to expand...
The PNA also stayed strongly positive on the control run of the Weeklies.
1767744000-bxr2T706tkMgrb2.png
 
That EPS run gave me pause as to where we are headed. It looks like a very possible scenario which we have seen already recently, namely the cold is bottled up North and cuts us off from the temps needed to give us wintry weather. I realize we are a ways out to make definitive statements, but it does not make me feel good to see it contradict the other modeling, hopefully it will go towards the other models rather than them going towards it.
 
MichaelJ said:
That EPS run gave me pause as to where we are headed. It looks like a very possible scenario which we have seen already recently, namely the cold is bottled up North and cuts us off from the temps needed to give us wintry weather. I realize we are a ways out to make definitive statements, but it does not make me feel good to see it contradict the other modeling, hopefully it will go towards the other models rather than them going towards it.
Click to expand...
I believe very little in the predictive power of any models after about 10 days, including ensembles, maybe towards some trends, but that is all. Even the 7-10 days is highly suspect, especially during a volatile change in the atmosphere coming ( tropics convection, Nina to nino, PNA elevation etc etc).
 
NBAcentel said:
I am not necessarily big on this look, but I like the slowing down trend regardless for future prospects, might turn out to be a good NW flow snow event as well, Mr highcountry would love that View attachment 181628
Click to expand...
Yep I was already thinking about making a little mini chase if I can get it to hit on a Friday
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh it this could move to the weekend, I’d book a cabin in Gatlinburg
Click to expand...

Already have 10 cabins saved for the wife to review for MLK weekend. Historically been money for snow up there the last 10 years for our family. 🤞

Anywhere off ski mountain road, preferably closer to ober Gatlinburg. It’s wild the difference in the top and the bottom of the mountain. I target 2800-3000 feet in elevation. Never fails me.

Great thing about Gatlinburg is they keep the roads maintained as well.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top