The best of both worlds,
Plenty of cold air to our north (La Nina like) with a stout STJ to our South (EL Nino like).
I'll take it!
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
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Plenty of cold air to our north (La Nina like) with a stout STJ to our South (EL Nino like).
I'll take it!
NCWeatherNow
Member
The thing is that the la Nina is cooked at this point
Yes. This is exactly how you get big phasing east coast winter storms. In the middle of a big macro transition. And timed with entire EC hitting peak climo. The timing seems better than good. All you can ask for is a chance. I think this is sort of what Glenn Burns has been hounding on here in the last week. Also the strat stuff. Now, we all just need a little luck. Somebody will get smoked. Why not us?
olhausen
Member
Gfs trying to give another historic winter storm to the Deep South. Probably never gonna happen but it’s good to see fantasy runs after things looked not so great earlier this month.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah the undertaker is getting ready to dig a hole for it.
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NCWeatherNow
Member
No offense but tropical tidbits has the absolute worse snow estimates.
Half of that is zr
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We have the best of both worlds with what I would consider a neutral La Nina/El Nino phase coming up for the rest of January and February. There will be plenty of cold air to play with after the 15th and the Southern jet stream may finally be open for business. I think we may see several potential events, any one of which or more than one, that could produce some winter precipitation for the Southeast.
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We all know this.
I may be wrong but this La Nina seems drier than the last couple that we have had at least here in the southeast.
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Just putting this out there: there’s not a lot of ensemble support for anything at this point. A bit more on the EPS than GEFS. AIEPS looks better but it has looked better all year because of the problems with ptype.
Sorry folks, its another post about something other than snow
There are some big members on the 12z EPS for SWNC showing 4-6"+ still. If the southerly sfc flow was a little beefier you'd really be talking for TN valley interests.
There are some big members on the 12z EPS for SWNC showing 4-6"+ still. If the southerly sfc flow was a little beefier you'd really be talking for TN valley interests.
PREHEAT THE OVEN
wait didn’t they have us in heat/drought mode for the 8 to 14 range at the start of the week?
Notice near normal precip from the plains to the Midwest and into the NE. They must not be leaning on cutters/apps rubbers for that time period
suppression favored. Above avg back towards ye ol’ stovepipe. We got a shot
packfan98
Moderator
Euro Weeklies look strong to me. Colder and better looking 5H pattern.
The control run would shutdown Atlanta.
The control run would shutdown Atlanta.
NBAcentel
Member
No wonder the weeklies cooked, it actually has a phase 8 MJO in late Jan with subsidence over the maritime continent 
NBAcentel
Member
The control looks amazing. Clean phase 8 MJO with the pulse moving into the americas and heavy subsidence over the maritime. Probably why the control has a stupid good pattern to end out jan 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
If that’s week 2 of the weeklies, that just about falls in line with the timeframe for the overrunning potential.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
trackersacker
Member
Man I thought they looked colder. We are so back
When models start getting active with repeated SE winter storm runs, that’s when I like to dust off the studies I’ve compiled for the different indices for major snows as they can give an idea of favorability vs unfavorability. Much of this I’ve posted here.
The last few GFS/Euro have suggested 1-2 SE storm threats mainly within 1/17-23
For the 37 RDU and/or GSO 6”+ SN/IP storms since 1950: (this analysis doesn’t pertain to primarily ZR storms):
1. PNA most important single index: Why?
# of storms/PNA:
- +PNA: 20; neutral PNA 10; -PNA: 7
- So, ~3 times as many for +PNA vs -PNA
- Interestingly though, the strongest -PNA for one of these was the -1.1 for 2/12-13/2014.
- 0Z GEFS fcast: +PNA til 1/18, then neutral , then negative. The timing of this progged PNA drop may be crucial.
2. NAO/AO not as crucial as PNA
- The AO has been neutral more often than not for RDU storms.
- -NAO: 15; neutral NAO: 10; +NAO: 12
- So, -NAO slight ad. but much more balanced vs PNA
-GEFS forecast for then: -AO/neutral NAO
3. For the 21 6”+ RDU/GSO storms 1975+:
MJO phases with most storms:[/b]
-3: 4.5
-7: 3.5
-5: 3
-8: 2.5
-1: 2.5
-4: 2.5
-2: 1.5
-6: 1
The GEFS/EPS is progging phase 6/7 during the crucial days. Phase 6 is relatively unfavorable, but phase 7 is relatively favorable. So, the EPS MJO prog would be strongly preferred.
The last few GFS/Euro have suggested 1-2 SE storm threats mainly within 1/17-23
For the 37 RDU and/or GSO 6”+ SN/IP storms since 1950: (this analysis doesn’t pertain to primarily ZR storms):
1. PNA most important single index: Why?
# of storms/PNA:
- +PNA: 20; neutral PNA 10; -PNA: 7
- So, ~3 times as many for +PNA vs -PNA
- Interestingly though, the strongest -PNA for one of these was the -1.1 for 2/12-13/2014.
- 0Z GEFS fcast: +PNA til 1/18, then neutral , then negative. The timing of this progged PNA drop may be crucial.
2. NAO/AO not as crucial as PNA
- The AO has been neutral more often than not for RDU storms.
- -NAO: 15; neutral NAO: 10; +NAO: 12
- So, -NAO slight ad. but much more balanced vs PNA
-GEFS forecast for then: -AO/neutral NAO
3. For the 21 6”+ RDU/GSO storms 1975+:
MJO phases with most storms:[/b]
-3: 4.5
-7: 3.5
-5: 3
-8: 2.5
-1: 2.5
-4: 2.5
-2: 1.5
-6: 1
The GEFS/EPS is progging phase 6/7 during the crucial days. Phase 6 is relatively unfavorable, but phase 7 is relatively favorable. So, the EPS MJO prog would be strongly preferred.
packfan98
Moderator
WXinCanton
Member
Euro Keeps shifting the heaviest axis of rain south towards Atlanta for this weekend.
MichaelJ
Member
That EPS run gave me pause as to where we are headed. It looks like a very possible scenario which we have seen already recently, namely the cold is bottled up North and cuts us off from the temps needed to give us wintry weather. I realize we are a ways out to make definitive statements, but it does not make me feel good to see it contradict the other modeling, hopefully it will go towards the other models rather than them going towards it.
NBAcentel
Member
EPS has been headed for a SER for how long now ? Only to correct the anomalies further east 
Tarheelwx
Member
What's up with the inverted wedge on GaWx's last map he just posted?
?
TW
?
TW
NBAcentel
Member
Wen ridge ?
Also look how much the western ridge has slid back further east
Also look how much the western ridge has slid back further east
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The main center of the ridge is SE of the Bahamas on the latest run lol
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I believe very little in the predictive power of any models after about 10 days, including ensembles, maybe towards some trends, but that is all. Even the 7-10 days is highly suspect, especially during a volatile change in the atmosphere coming ( tropics convection, Nina to nino, PNA elevation etc etc).
NBAcentel
Member
I am not necessarily big on this look, but I like the slowing down trend regardless for future prospects, might turn out to be a good NW flow snow event as well, Mr highcountry would love that 
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like this run sends the energy back into the pacific again as well lol
Yep I was already thinking about making a little mini chase if I can get it to hit on a Friday
NCWeatherNow
Member
This is becoming impossible to ignore at this point with how much it's showing this outcome.
Brother. Don’t turn into a doubter please. We got plenty of these in here already.
Yeh it this could move to the weekend, I’d book a cabin in Gatlinburg
Already have 10 cabins saved for the wife to review for MLK weekend. Historically been money for snow up there the last 10 years for our family.
Anywhere off ski mountain road, preferably closer to ober Gatlinburg. It’s wild the difference in the top and the bottom of the mountain. I target 2800-3000 feet in elevation. Never fails me.
Great thing about Gatlinburg is they keep the roads maintained as well.
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We use Elk Springs & love it! Anyways, sorry for the banter!Already have 10 cabins saved for the wife to review for MLK weekend. Historically been money for snow up there the last 10 years for our family.
jetstream30
Member
Going to be a wild few weeks with the models changing. Lots of hope. Maybe just maybe we get a decent storm east of the mountains.
We need to run it back like Jan 22’. Except this time you don’t get stuck at the bottom of the driveway lolAlready have 10 cabins saved for the wife to review for MLK weekend. Historically been money for snow up there the last 10 years for our family.
Anywhere of ski mountain road, preferably closer to ober Gatlinburg. It’s wild the difference in the top and the bottom of the mountain. I target 2800-3000 feet in elevation. Never fails me.
Great thing about Gatlinburg is they keep the roads maintained as well.
