• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

Cutoff doesn’t appear as stranded this run. Now that I said that watch it retrograde 2k miles back to the SW off the coast of Cabo
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Cutoff doesn’t appear as stranded this run. Now that I said that watch it retrograde 2k miles back to the SW off the coast of Cabo
Click to expand...
1767847055206.png
Cold locked in but will it stay locked in with all of that SW flow
 
1767847460186.png
Yucky. Need it to not amplify and then tilt early. Crazy how one run can be leaving the shortwave in the West and then the next run we get it too far ahead of the cold.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 181688
View attachment 181689
No problem with cold air aloft, just sfc issues
Click to expand...
I like that a lot better than most setups where WAA ruins any chance of something mixing in at lower elevations. I would think it’s a bit easier to cool the surface off or trend a few degrees colder in this case versus working with a cooler surface and major warm nose which seems to be a lot more common.
 
question. How would you even go about muting the SER to keep it from cutting? Would you need to maintain this connection? Bc once you lose it the warm air floods in from the southwest.IMG_7366.png
 
Morning latest CFS Update: Great trends continue/ even better.

LOL hits the VA/NC border counties 5 separate times with frozen before end of January.

I'll post this image today, last frame , just to show one of the many cold dives. The trend is deeper and wider as you roll through 1st week of February. Good to see model being consistent showing a late Jan early Fab Feb. Todays image is all the way out to Feb 9th.

1767870369180.png
 
accu35 said:
Euro was a good run. Not there yet for the 15th system but very close to something special
Click to expand...
All the ops are on the cusp to doing something for Jan 15th. I' interested to watch next few cycles. Got about a 50% chance to rope something frozen in. Maybe we can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
 
I’m still interested in the 19-22 timeframe with the location of that TPV and upstream western ridge. Models may not show much now, but things can change so quickly with that especially with the cutoff business/STJ and trough over the east. I could be wrong, but I like that period FWIW.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
Ugh. Not a fan of this trend. We are losing our cold air and favorable trough position. Bye bye -NAO block. Hopefully we can get some better looks over the next couple of days.
View attachment 181705
Click to expand...

06dc86f168cdc372ce891005713aa611.jpg

00z EPS for comparison


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
Ugh. Not a fan of this trend. We are losing our cold air and favorable trough position. Bye bye -NAO block. Hopefully we can get some better looks over the next couple of days.
View attachment 181705
Click to expand...

Models likely are not properly handling the wave reflection that usually comes with these North Pacific blocking patterns
 
Models are having a hard time sniffing out the wave reflection that usually comes with these North Pacific blocking (-EPO/-WPO) patterns. That plus the east QBO/high solar base state, and the re-strengthening polar vortex aloft following our early-winter stratospheric warming event usually favor +NAM/AO

IMG_7196.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Ugh. Not a fan of this trend. We are losing our cold air and favorable trough position. Bye bye -NAO block. Hopefully we can get some better looks over the next couple of days.
View attachment 181705
Click to expand...

I see the rising NAO trend you’re showing on the last few AI GEFS. But on the regular GEFS mean, the NAO has been favored to go essentially neutral for a good number of days of runs (even further back than this gif goes back). So, on that ensemble mean, it’s really nothing new/surprising:
IMG_6837.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Things have been setup well for a strong +NAM/AO in Feb-Mar this winter

Late winter-early spring +NAM is very typical of El Niño onset years. High solar/east qbo base state makes this more likely, which we talked about months ago
Click to expand...
I’m not gonna pretend I know what this means. I just want it to snow in the South.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Models are having a hard time sniffing out the wave reflection that usually comes with these North Pacific blocking (-EPO/-WPO) patterns. That plus the east QBO/high solar base state, and the re-strengthening polar vortex aloft following our early-winter stratospheric warming event usually favor +NAM/AO

View attachment 181707
Click to expand...

Do you think this would be good or bad for wintry weather in the SE?
 
The overrunning threat has started to consolidate on the models to more of a weak/fizzling frontal look unfortunately. But there’s still some potential there. First trough that plunges down on day 7/8 delivers cold/dry air and the 06z gfs capitalizes on that with a decent burst of snow over north ga/western nc/ even down to my house in SC when the frontal precip comes through.

Euro was more robust with precip, but too warm, ai models are too weak.
Maybe the trends will be more favorable today.
IMG_0317.jpeg
 
It looks like, for the first time this winter, the MJO is poised to venture far outside of the COD before settling into a lower amplitude 7-8-1 progression into early February. I'd like to think this will help to shake things up in our favor for the last gasp at winter before my unofficial end of winter, February 20th.
1767878847392.png
1767878876773.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It looks like, for the first time this winter, the MJO is poised to venture far outside of the COD before settling into a lower amplitude 7-8-1 progression into early February. I'd like to think this will help to shake things up in our favor for the last gasp at winter before my unofficial end of winter, February 20th.
View attachment 181719
View attachment 181720
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting those. Here’s something I hope you find interesting:

# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase
1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)

So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days!

So, the progs that you showed with a lot of days in 6 and/or 7 (especially GEFS) would fit well with the Jan trend of the last 15 years. I’m suspecting CC is a factor.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posting those. Here’s something I hope you find interesting:

# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase
1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)

So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days!

So, the progs that you showed with a lot of days in 6 and/or 7 (especially GEFS) would fit well with the Jan trend of the last 15 years. I’m suspecting CC is a factor.
Click to expand...
Interesting research! Do you have data to compare with the much colder 70s and 80s?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top