• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

SNOWMANN said:
I think next Thursday could turn into something. Need that baby to dig a little more. We got our cold coming in. Several systems have potential and we're in prime climo. I remember January 2017 was looking grim and then we got that storm around Martin Luther King Day. I believe good times are ahead.
Click to expand...
Good times are ahead. This forum is just a bunch of mental cases living off each run, myself included.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I think next Thursday could turn into something. Need that baby to dig a little more. We got our cold coming in. Several systems have potential and we're in prime climo. I remember January 2017 was looking grim and then we got that storm around Martin Luther King Day. I believe good times are ahead.
Click to expand...
The Jan 2017 storm is dead to me.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I think next Thursday could turn into something. Need that baby to dig a little more. We got our cold coming in. Several systems have potential and we're in prime climo. I remember January 2017 was looking grim and then we got that storm around Martin Luther King Day. I believe good times are ahead.
Click to expand...
2017 storm was Goated
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posting those. Here’s something I hope you find interesting:

# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase
1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)

So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days!

So, the progs that you showed with a lot of days in 6 and/or 7 (especially GEFS) would fit well with the Jan trend of the last 15 years. I’m suspecting CC is a factor.
Click to expand...

Yeah agree, this is great stuff here thanks. I think it holds the key to why our winters have been so bad for so long. Tropical convection, forcing, the jet is just always in the wrong spot. CC or not, those numbers are pretty fascinating and I think points to the culprit.

In December we were sure that we'd get an 8-1-2 rotation, but it died quickly in 8 and went to the COD, with a kelvin wave that imitated 5 or something. In the updated Euro chart forecast posted, it again goes to 8 and starts to die. Something in the tropics has just been keeping us away from prolonged and proper Aleutian troughs and AK ridges it seems to me.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
2017 storm was Goated
Click to expand...
I loved the storm. I ended up getting all sleet (~ 4.5"). But I was sweating the whole time expecting a change to rain. As I continued to get sleet, everybody else east and south (Wake County) turned to freezing rain or just rain.

1767885767951.png
1767885807383.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Interesting research! Do you have data to compare with the much colder 70s and 80s?
Click to expand...

SnowNiner said:
Yeah agree, this is great stuff here thanks. I think it holds the key to why our winters have been so bad for so long. Tropical convection, forcing, the jet is just always in the wrong spot. CC or not, those numbers are pretty fascinating and I think points to the culprit.

In December we were sure that we'd get an 8-1-2 rotation, but it died quickly in 8 and went to the COD, with a kelvin wave that imitated 5 or something. In the updated Euro chart forecast posted, it again goes to 8 and starts to die. Something in the tropics has just been keeping us away from prolonged and proper Aleutian troughs and AK ridges it seems to me.
Click to expand...

I just calculated Jans 1975-89: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as seemed to be suspected:

# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 39 (8%)
2: 67 (14%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 57 (12%)
5: 46 (10%)
6: 51 (11%)
7: 63 (14%)
8: 75 (16%)


Compare to this that I posted earlier:
# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)


So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?

# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply
# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharply

Jan 1975-89
8-1-2: 39%
6-7: 25%

Jan 2011-25
8-1-2: 18%
6-7: 44%

So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25!
 
GaWx said:
I just calculated Jans 1975-89: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as seemed to be suspected:

# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 39 (8%)
2: 67 (14%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 57 (12%)
5: 46 (10%)
6: 51 (11%)
7: 63 (14%)
8: 75 (16%)


Compare to this that I posted earlier:
# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)


So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?

# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply
# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharply

Jan 1975-89
8-1-2: 39%
6-7: 25%

Jan 2011-25
8-1-2: 18%
6-7: 44%

So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25!
Click to expand...

Great research. Good stuff. MJO as suspected plays huge role…. We need 8-1-2 back


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I just calculated Jans 1975-89: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as seemed to be suspected:

# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 39 (8%)
2: 67 (14%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 57 (12%)
5: 46 (10%)
6: 51 (11%)
7: 63 (14%)
8: 75 (16%)


Compare to this that I posted earlier:
# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)


So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?

# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply
# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharply

Jan 1975-89
8-1-2: 39%
6-7: 25%

Jan 2011-25
8-1-2: 18%
6-7: 44%

So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25!
Click to expand...

Thank you! That's great data. This literally is why "it don't snow like it used to". lol. But yeah, we're not imagining things when we say snow was better back when we generation x'ers were kids because the tropical forcing was better it seems.

I think to fix this we need to get together and dump a bunch of ice in the West Pacific Warm Pool, likely causing alot of this.
 
We're starting to get into the medium range of the models. This is where models will (hopefully) start to get some consensus on a storm. 12z ICON looked good. Followed the 6z GFS. I liked the 0z a little better with the slightly stronger, and positioned, high to the north. That may be the key for a lot of the north Ga, west SC, and central NC folks.
 
GaWx said:
I just calculated Jans 1975-89: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as seemed to be suspected:

# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 39 (8%)
2: 67 (14%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 57 (12%)
5: 46 (10%)
6: 51 (11%)
7: 63 (14%)
8: 75 (16%)


Compare to this that I posted earlier:
# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)


So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?

# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply
# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharply

Jan 1975-89
8-1-2: 39%
6-7: 25%

Jan 2011-25
8-1-2: 18%
6-7: 44%

So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25!
Click to expand...
Thanks for researching this! This is likely cyclical, possibly in association with the PDO, which was strongly positive during that time frame.
 
Noticeable Improvements on the 12z GFS AI
gfs-ai-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1767873600-1768500000-1768500000-40.gif
 
ducketta27 said:
Would be curious to know how many SE snows have occurred outside of 8-1-2… percentage wise


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I don’t have the percentage, but a couple years ago I made a post about a number of memorable storms in the CLT area that occurred in phases 4, 5, 6. The common theme on those was they low amp in those phases
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t have the percentage, but a couple years ago I made a post about a number of memorable storms in the CLT area that occurred in phases 4, 5, 6. The common theme on those was they low amp in those phases
Click to expand...

Awesome. Thanks for the info!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
With the negative NAO disappearing, it looks like the cold air for many of us will fly out the window when many of these potential winter threats come our way. Now we have the moisture courtesy of the Southern jet stream appearing but most of the cold stays trapped to the north and west of the Southeast. I still think we will have at least one shot for a snow event for Virginia and the areas with higher elevations in the coming days and the rest of us might see at least a sloppy rain/snow mix if conditions are right as far as upper level temperatures
 
weather bubba said:
With the negative NAO disappearing, it looks like the cold air for many of us will fly out the window when many of these potential winter threats come our way. Now we have the moisture courtesy of the Southern jet stream appearing but most of the cold stays trapped to the north and west of the Southeast. I still think we will have at least one shot for a snow event for Virginia and the areas with higher elevations in the coming days and the rest of us might see at least a sloppy rain/snow mix if conditions are right as far as upper level temperatures
Click to expand...
Maybe the -NAO will be back today. Who knows.
 
weather bubba said:
With the negative NAO disappearing, it looks like the cold air for many of us will fly out the window when many of these potential winter threats come our way. Now we have the moisture courtesy of the Southern jet stream appearing but most of the cold stays trapped to the north and west of the Southeast. I still think we will have at least one shot for a snow event for Virginia and the areas with higher elevations in the coming days and the rest of us might see at least a sloppy rain/snow mix if conditions are right as far as upper level temperatures
Click to expand...
Yeah its looking more and more like that will be the case
 
LukeBarrette said:
The icon is the only model that wants to dig a trough super deep and it’s got me thinking it’s on a complete island
Click to expand...
The GFS has trended toward the ICON solution over the past few runs, though. The primary difference being how the models handle the TPV over SE Canada.

1767889237680.png
1767889261532.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top