Pattern January Joke

[jackendrickwx]

GFS digs it massively and keeps it consolidated/hooked up with northern stream. the result:



Need to see somebody more believable keep it hooked up with ns

 

[KyloG]

I hate to disagree but they’re really far apart. The ICON captures southern stream energy, the GFS does not.
View attachment 181741
View attachment 181742

Look again...

 

[Stormdoc]

oh wow, it's doing it. View attachment 181743

It’s close to an all out bomb. A little more energy on the backside of that trough, it go boom

 

[LukeBarrette]

Look again...

Synoptically not the same. GFS is almost entirely northern stream based as it digs and then tilts. ICON is a phase of the two

 

[FallsLake]

It’s close to an all out bomb. A little more energy on the backside of that trough, it go boom

Yeah, this is hour 189. Big bomb potential...

 

[Stevo24]

C

Ahhh alee nah!!!
View attachment 181747

Cash in @Mitch West I’ll pay for the pizza.

 

[packfan98]

Round 2 coming I think.

EDIT - Fizzles out, but it's a good look

 

[Mitch West]

C

Cash in @Mitch West I’ll pay for the pizza.

MEET ME AT THE ROOF MY GUY

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Round 2 coming I think

Secondary look again?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Secondary look again?

Odd look here

 

[SNOWMANN]

I think he meant Jan 2018

No 2018 was good too but I got my dates mixed up on the 2017 storm. It was the 6th and 7th.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Oh, so close.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ll take my chances on a favorable track if this is what we’re working with

 

[LukeBarrette]

Extremely fast flow was the reason that second look did not work

 

[Mitch West]

The next storm is the Southernwx mountain special. We will meet Friday evening. I'll order the pizza.

 

[LongRanger]

Ahhh alee nah!!!
View attachment 181747

Now you know that will always move NW and end up a I85 special

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 181749
Odd look here

Lil inbetweener but we were troughed up with no ridge in sight so I’m ok with it for now

 

[Tsappfrog20]

A good start by the GFS hope the GEFS follows then of course King EURO!


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[Stevo24]

Gotta think here in the next couple of days we are gonna see an explosive fantasy run that makes us all happy. Or at-least I hope so.

 

[rburrel2]

We’ve got two bullets in the chamber inside of day 10. Maybe one of them will work out. I’m definitely more intrigued about that first trough after the last few model runs. Very close to something big. And I feel like the ai models typically are too broad/rounded/washed out with troughs at this lead time, so not a huge cause for concern there.

 

[rburrel2]

Mega wedge incoming? We got our nao blocking back!

 

[griteater]

Lil inbetweener but we were troughed up with no ridge in sight so I’m ok with it for now

Yeah that’s the main thing - fairly sharp western ridge trying to dig energy sharply into the SE (La Niña style like it or not)

GFS has a cold core pressing in later

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I really do like when that happens

 

[jrips27]

1050 high over the lakes on the GFS

 

[FoothillsWX]

Now you know that will always move NW and end up a I85 special

NW of I-85 hasn’t scored a good storm in years. Asheville and most of the foothills are in a historic snow drought. Last time warning criteria was met — Jan 2022.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Very icy solution incoming

 

[Ross]

gfs is the worst model in the world and sucks and should be left out in a field to die and is a synecdoche for american deterioration until it shows a good snow

 

[LukeBarrette]

Very icy solution incoming

Stupid idiot shortwave out west ruined the final look with SW flow. Ehh who cares

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

1050 high over the lakes on the GFSView attachment 181758

I love a good 900hr fail proof look
But you can’t have it all working at the same time unfortunately

 

[LukeBarrette]

I love a good 900hr fail proof lookView attachment 181760

Still being ice is crazy

 

[rburrel2]

Pretty dramatic change in the long range on the gfs ai mean at 850mb. Love to see it.

 

[NCSNOW]

UKMET. Last frame. to positively tilted

 

[SNOWMANN]

NW of I-85 hasn’t scored a good storm in years. Asheville and most of the foothills are in a historic snow drought. Last time warning criteria was met — Jan 2022.

Agreed hell the coast and areas down east have gotten more in the last few years than we have. Next Thursday could be interesting we just need that baby to dig and connect the northern and southern streams and we might be cooking. I know it's the icon but it did show us the path to Glory.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

View attachment 181746

Good thing this is the GFS. If that were to actually happen I would cry in the fetal position for 24 hours and give up on weather. Throw all my weather pics and calenders and books and thermometers away and quit.

 

[mx3gsr92]

Book your hotels in Moyock ASAP.

 

[rburrel2]

Hmm… best look yet on the gfs ai mean.

 

[GaWx]

A good start by the GFS hope the GEFS follows then of course King EURO!


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Unfortunately though not surprisingly, the 12Z GEFS says the op. is a major outlier:

 

[NCSNOW]

I am fully expecting the 12Z Euro to be real close to the 12z GFS and Icon. Split difference to a degree, but more so toward the GFS. The 0Z Euro last night was already where these two are at today. To be fair 0z Icon was honking a little last night on the 5H maps.

When I say close, I'm talking 500mb vort maps, not surface maps

 

[tennessee storm]

We’ve got two bullets in the chamber inside of day 10. Maybe one of them will work out. I’m definitely more intrigued about that first trough after the last few model runs. Very close to something big. And I feel like the ai models typically are too broad/rounded/washed out with troughs at this lead time, so not a huge cause for concern there.

Just not cold enough still …. Hopefully we get better changes soon

 

[Mitch West]

12z Euro AI is a cold run but not a lot of moisture.