• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
To me, it looks like we went from overrunning, to the middle ground of suck last night, and now we’re are starting to edge more towards a miller A look for that day 10 timeframe. Just need to slow things down imo, the western ridge has trended way east. This is why I was saying worrying about SE ridging isn’t exactly my concern a few days ago, it’s going back to the base state of suppression and dry NW flow with an occasional clipper. This western ridge is taller though then the December midget ridge and VA even scored with that super mario ahhh ridge, so maybe we dig something up this go with it being taller View attachment 181793View attachment 181795View attachment 181796
Click to expand...
Spot on! I hate that we lost the overrunning look. Phasing systems are tricky for the models to figure out, so we keep watching.
 
packfan98 said:
Spot on! I hate that we lost the overrunning look. Phasing systems are tricky for the models to figure out, so we keep watching.
Click to expand...
Yeah agree. Gotta like where the AI is heading though, it’s getting close to getting out the sucky middle ground. If we want to increase our chances here we need some northern stream to really dig, and besides, we are at a time of the year where it’s relatively easy to sneak out a novelty/minor event just from Northern stream by itself passing overhead. Tilting it and phasing though is something else IMG_2030.gif
 
Euro Wk Control run shows us how to do it. Drop the initial trough in and cool it down...then anti-cyclonic wave break along the W Canada coastline, and drop the next wave down into the trough in positive tilt (this keeps it cold out front), transitioning to neutral tilt...Miller A.

Jan 8 C Snow.png

Jan 8 C 500.gif

Jan 8 C 850.gif

Jan 8 C Sfc.gif
 
griteater said:
Euro Wk Control run shows us how to do it. Drop the initial trough in and cool it down...then anti-cyclonic wave break along the W Canada coastline, and drop the next wave down into the trough in positive tilt (this keeps it cold out front), transitioning to neutral tilt...Miller A.

View attachment 181803

View attachment 181805

View attachment 181806

View attachment 181807
Click to expand...
That would make up for the misery of us just south of 85 in SC.....and I would punt the next couple of winters to get it.
 
griteater said:
Euro Wk Control run shows us how to do it. Drop the initial trough in and cool it down...then anti-cyclonic wave break along the W Canada coastline, and drop the next wave down into the trough in positive tilt (this keeps it cold out front), transitioning to neutral tilt...Miller A.

View attachment 181803

View attachment 181805

View attachment 181806

View attachment 181807
Click to expand...

So nice to see those maps are still capable of being shown! But why does it always have to be the control run? ha

Nice to see anyway. Didn't look like a perfect spikey western ridge or -NAO but it worked. Maybe we can put something like that together in a week and half.
 
SnowNiner said:
So nice to see those maps are still capable of being shown! But why does it always have to be the control run? ha

Nice to see anyway. Didn't look like a perfect spikey western ridge or -NAO but it worked. Maybe we can put something like that together in a week and half.
Click to expand...
It's definitely within the scope of the possible. We have just been clawing all winter to even be in the game. The ingredients "appear" to be on the table. This time. But it takes more than just having the ingredients to make a cake.

At least there are ways to make it happen. The ridge out west has to behave just right, or we need some -NAO to give us more wiggle room.

Grit is right about how things need to shake out and that we've made strides with the pattern. But we really do not have a lot of wiggle room here, at least the way it appears right now.
 
On a more short term note, very surprised that there’s not a flood watch anywhere in North Georgia. Seems like someone is gonna get 3-4 inches just a question of where the training bands set up.

3K NAM is well north of Atlanta with heaviest totals

IMG_8642.png

RRFS and the Euro have the heaviest rains impacting metro Atlanta

IMG_8645.pngIMG_8646.png

It’s anyone’s guess as to what’s correct
 
After our Miller A blizzard, we get the big, cold TPV to drop into Canada. Thereafter (Jan 21-28) should give us out best shot at west to east overrunning into cold air. Would just like to keep some momentum in the Pac Jet and maintain some western ridging to get the cold to press south more.

May have some -EAMT issues (2nd image showing Low anomalies in E Asia, High anomalies in W Asia) in the Jan 15-18 timeframe that would want to retract the jet post Jan 20...but at that same time, we have the favorable tropical forcing kicking in to help with momentum (3rd image, loop)

Jan 8 EPS 500 Ht Loop.gif

Jan 8 Euro Sfc.png

Jan 8 Euro Wk MJO.gif



From today's Euro Weeklies for Jan 19 - 28

Jan 8 EPS Jan 26.png

Jan 8 EPS Jan 28.png
 
jrips27 said:
On a more short term note, very surprised that there’s not a flood watch anywhere in North Georgia. Seems like someone is gonna get 3-4 inches just a question of where the training bands set up.

3K NAM is well north of Atlanta with heaviest totals

View attachment 181815

RRFS and the Euro have the heaviest rains impacting metro Atlanta

View attachment 181817View attachment 181818

It’s anyone’s guess as to what’s correct
Click to expand...
Pattern (yes with fluctuations) makes the pattern. We've had so little rain in the Piedmont..something that bears watching, short term and long. Hoping the STJ can kick in for all of the southeast.
 
jrips27 said:
On a more short term note, very surprised that there’s not a flood watch anywhere in North Georgia. Seems like someone is gonna get 3-4 inches just a question of where the training bands set up.

3K NAM is well north of Atlanta with heaviest totals

View attachment 181815

RRFS and the Euro have the heaviest rains impacting metro Atlanta

View attachment 181817View attachment 181818

It’s anyone’s guess as to what’s correct
Click to expand...
Blend them all and its pretty much over us. Be interesting to see who wins
 
for the second look, gotta get rid of the stream connection for the digging wave, it connecting to the northern stream in Canada is causing low pressure around the lakes, if you got rid of that, we probably cook up some cold air damming, given the proximity of the 50/50 low, but as long as there’s stream connection, low pressure around the lakes will scour any high pressure out IMG_2041.png
 
trackersacker said:


This will potentially choke the La Niña and allow the MJO to more likely move into phase 8 correct?
Click to expand...

No doubt we are going into an elniño in next few months, but the million dollar question is will all these shifts get the pattern loaded for colder and better opportunities at winter weather before we run out of time this winter?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top