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Pattern January Joke

Webberweather53 said:
No ensemble-derived snowfall mean or probability product will tell you how a minor tweak to this pattern will be the difference between being bitterly cold with snow/ice or an all blowtorch.

There is very little room for anything in between here

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Is it a 50/50 shot? Or would you still lean more towards warm because, well, why not lol
 
Stevo24 said:
Is it a 50/50 shot? Or would you still lean more towards warm because, well, why not lol
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I actually would favor cold more than warmth here.

That’s just been the theme this winter trend-wise (more western ridge for ex) and experience in seeing how these kinds of patterns have evolved on modeling in the past
 
J.C. said:
Monthly anomalies before the next several warm days:

KATL: +7.9
KFYY: +4.7
KFCC: +3.9
KAVL: +4
KGSP: +4.4
KCLT: +5
KRDU: -.2
KBHM: +4.4

From Charlotte west its a pretty consistent 4 to 5 degrees above average so far during this first week, and this first ten day stretch of January might be one of the warmest on record. The +7.9 for KATL is obviously bogus.
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Raleigh having their temp sensor inside a pot of boiling water and still BN for the month is impressive
 
CaryWx said:
I thought BAM always said the cold would be post 1/15.
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Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30:


In that 15 minute video, he posted this

“12/31-1/15 thinking”
IMG_6813.png

From that map, he has these:
-ATL to RDU: 1-2 BN
-NYC: 2 BN
-Chic 3-4 BN

How are these looking right now? I’ll focus on our area, the -1 to -2 for ATL-RDU for 12/31-1/15:

BAM is going to bust way too cold. Why?

ATL actual 12/31-1/5 was +6. Forecast for 1/6-10 is +15 and for 1/11-15 is -2.
So, ATL is progged to be at ~+6 for 12/31-1/15 vs BAM’s -1 to -2.

RDU actual 12/31-1/5 is 0. Forecast for 1/6-10 is +16 and for 1/11-15 is +2.
So, RDU is progged to be ~+5.5 for 12/31-1/15 vs BAM’s -1 to -2.

Thus, BAM is projected to end up too cold for 12/31-1/15 at ATL and RDU by a whopping 6.5-8 F meaning a much too cold first half of Jan.

Edit: I estimate Chicago will come in ~+5 for 12/31-1/15 vs BAM prog of -3 to -4 meaning that would be a cold bust of 8-9.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
No ensemble-derived snowfall mean or probability product will tell you how a minor tweak to this pattern will be the difference between being bitterly cold with snow/ice or an all blowtorch.

There is very little room for anything in between here

View attachment 181422
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Ha the 12z EPS Clusters for Day 15 show the razors edge well
Jan 6 EPS Clusters.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Raleigh having their temp sensor inside a pot of boiling water and still BN for the month is impressive
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Northern Coastal Plain, really Hwy 64 north in NC has had a very good start to winter. Minus a few warm days at Christmas/ that got muted due to NE winds. And the next 4 days , before we flip back to winter. Could easily turn into a banter winter, especially if we stay on the good side of the razor thin margin that's coming up/ webber described. That NW to SE angled cutoff line has been good to Virginia and NE NC so far
 
Tarheel1 said:
It started yesterday! Damage control
The more they do this, the more credibility they lose, in my opinion. Kind of like JB
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Not sure if I would say damage control. The models didn't go like they thought. I would rather they admit it than to change every time the models run, as most do.
Never was supposed to be a great winter and most of the time it never is in the south east so nothing is surprising anymore. Just part of living here.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Not sure if I would say damage control. The models didn't go like they thought. I would rather they admit it than to change every time the models run, as most do.
Never was supposed to be a great winter and most of the time it never is in the south east so nothing is surprising anymore. Just part of living here.
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They went significantly colder than the models for Jan. Their first half of Jan is headed for a big bust (too cold by 6-9 much of the E US).
 
Webberweather53 said:
No ensemble-derived snowfall mean or probability product will tell you how a minor tweak to this pattern will be the difference between being bitterly cold with snow/ice or an all blowtorch.

There is very little room for anything in between here

View attachment 181422
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I get it’s highly variable, everyone has laid that out well. It’s way out there in the forecast period anyways. Just saying I would like to see some movement towards said tweak/snowier solutions over the next few days to make me feel like the colder possibilities of the mid-Jan period are becoming more of a reality.

I’m still more of a learner than most of the long timers on this board as I am sure yall are aware. As far as long-range stuff goes, my two cents probably aren’t worth a cow pie yet.
 
In a perfect world, post Jan 20, the -EAMT retrogrades the Scandi blocking into Greenland while the MJO going 7-8 (and in concert with the Indo-Pacific warm pool edging east) holds the Pac Jet extension and western ridging

MJO output from last 6 runs of the Euro Weeklies


Jan 6 EPS MJO Loop.gif
 
jackendrickwx said:
I get it’s highly variable, everyone has laid that out well. It’s way out there in the forecast period anyways. Just saying I would like to see some movement towards said tweak/snowier solutions over the next few days to make me feel like the colder possibilities of the mid-Jan period are becoming more of a reality.

I’m still more of a learner than most of the long timers on this board as I am sure yall are aware. As far as long-range stuff goes, my two cents probably aren’t worth a cow pie yet.
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It’s honestly pointless in this kind of pattern to get hung up by the ensemble mean snowfall derived output.

Sure it could verify, but a subtle shift in the pattern can take you from nothing to a whole lot of something in a few cycles and these ensemble suites are rarely (if ever) properly dispersed to handle unforeseen shifts in the synoptic details.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s honestly pointless in this kind of pattern to get hung up by the ensemble mean snowfall derived output.

Sure it could verify, but a subtle shift in the pattern can take you from nothing to a whole lot of something in a few cycles and these ensemble suites are rarely (if ever) properly dispersed to handle unforeseen shifts in the synoptic details.
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I remember the ensemble means being completely useless for Winter Storm Izzy more than around 5 days out, it really only showed up good in the medium range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s honestly pointless in this kind of pattern to get hung up by the ensemble mean snowfall derived output.

Sure it could verify, but a subtle shift in the pattern can take you from nothing to a whole lot of something in a few cycles and these ensemble suites are rarely (if ever) properly dispersed to handle unforeseen shifts in the synoptic details.
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If we even manage to get fraction of the +PNA shift in the medium range we’ve seen most of this fall and winter, we are looking at a completely different outcome in late January.

IMG_7149.png

IMG_7150.png
 
NBAcentel said:
Big fan of this trend, the more we get this to back off early on, the less likely we are to get a chopped/midget western ridge View attachment 181429
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You can see that dominoes itself later on, way taller ridge nosing into AK. Also not far from getting stream separation with that look either with that wave entering Montana IMG_1884.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Beautiful fantasy run on it as well View attachment 181431View attachment 181432View attachment 181433View attachment 181434View attachment 181435View attachment 181436
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Like you and webb and grit have eluded to. Same "general" look showing but minor adjustments mean a huge difference in winter weather outcome. Gonna be a roller coaster for sure and we may fall flat on our faces, but by gosh it's very capable of multiple winter storms just as well. And we could be due again for a February freak show as well. Seems like they show up every 5 years.
 
Oconeexman said:
Like you and webb and grit have eluded to. Same "general" look showing but minor adjustments mean a huge difference in winter weather outcome. Gonna be a roller coaster for sure and we may fall flat on our faces, but by gosh it's very capable of multiple winter storms just as well. And we could be due again for a February freak show as well. Seems like they show up every 5 years.
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-EPO/+TNH patterns are my personal favorite because it’s usually all or nothing.

When the wave pattern sets up just right, it’s often brutally cold with potential for widespread snow/ice across the Southern US. When the pattern sucks, you tend to get nice spring days; there is rarely much room for anything in between (like cold rain), tho that ofc does happen.
 
Hi, all! I'm new here and I'll mainly be a lurker, and I'm much farther north than most. But I'll contribute something every now and then when I see fit.

I'll be looking at the January 15th system. h5 on the 12z Euro might look decent at first, but it doesn't really do anything at the surface. Why doesn't this translate into a nice coastal storm? The answer is that the h5 wave is positively tilted, so the energy shears out and there's essentially nothing showing at the surface. Alternatively, the 0z GFS h5 wave is more negative (albeit not cleanly), so there it pops out a real coastal low. Obviously the next few runs of the GFS lose it, though. If we want to see a real storm, we would need to get that h5 wave to trend towards a negative tilt. At this juncture there's still lots of time for it to trend that way, as we're still 10 days out.

Cheers!Screenshot 2026-01-06 at 5.29.52 PM.pngScreenshot 2026-01-06 at 5.37.38 PM.png
 
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We got a fantasy storm!!
4d1624d323a95a3218fa5a308bdd3c7e.png



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