Idk what that was. One of the more ridiculously oriented displays of modeled cold dump I’ve seen in some time. I’ll believe it when I see it. Although my hope is for some middle ground and just enough WAR to let something big pop off for the board
It does suck there. The question is......is it correct? We're going to have a battle over the SE, and we don't know for sure how it's going to turn out. It could be SE ridgy....or it could be the opposite - big Arctic blast and cold to very cold.
And as bad as that run appeared to be for the board, this is still not a safe look for power companies
Brother we will all pass
east asia looks way better on the regular GFS as well, also look at all the subtropical troughing in the pacific lol
Man it genuinely sucks that this period of favorable trough orientation has to feature a crappy “leftovers” caliber of cold air source. By the time we introduce real cold into the conus we have to decide how much of an eastern ridge we get to deal with.
Flat pass. But maybe a late phase coming here
Ridge keeps getting better out west!!! With that look, you have to have suppression in the back of your mind, but as RC would say” get me the cold first” TM
Looks to me like a weaker version of Feb 8, 2020 which did put down good snows for some
Gotta love the digging right down the chimney! Things are definitely looking brighter!
stovepipe drop. She was going to at least try for us
Yeah that’s the evolution I like, I think the key here around that timeframe if we want a storm will be trying to retrograde the ridge to Alaska to get the cold air tap/deep TPV around the Great Lakes and finally get a legit Arctic tap, and also dig energy in a ideal location, but at the same time slow down the retraction of the jet to hold the ridging in Alaska/western Canada rather then a GOA/AK ridge. If we can do the in between, we probably are in good shape
I must say I am quite satisfied with what I see as most of these cold shots and moisture systems are at a safe range where they can trend snowier with time, not to mention there are numerous opportunities as it would appear now. Of course they could trend drier and not in our favor, but I always like to hope, and these past few days have been the best looking long-range I’ve seen off the GFS this year, especially considering the upcoming pattern change supported by other model guidance.
Always worry about the cold first, ALWAYS!It’s weird bc both the GFS and CMC have a wave dropping verical out of Idaho at roughly the same timeframe.
Don’t they say you can see the big ones coming from a mile away
Don’t worry about the cold. Like RC always says “get the stovepipe wave first then worry about the cold”
Seems like having that more west based block around the Davis strait aids in the TPV being further south to allow for a storm. Loving the trends the last day with the -NAO coming into the equation
