CNCsnwfan1210
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah started noticing it on last nights euro, could cause some wild changes on 12z data if it continues
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Thats two 180 hour runs in a row of a significant storm brewing. When was the last time you saw a trough dig that far south and turn up the coast? GFS honking the horn as well...
Was about the pull a GFS but a little quicker. Heavy snow in the mountains at the end.
NBAcentel
Member
Probably would be a slop event at best with the 2nd half being the snow event if things went right but I like where the icon was heading, gives a new concept with introducing a TPV donut into the equation, would probably flip the 2nd half of the event to snow for some areas
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Mountain board members would get an insane paste job though for most of the event.
I told you, this pattern has big doggie potential!
If NG traders would have been following SouthernWx.com yesterday, they would have made a lot of money.
I don't know if tingly is the word I would use to describe how I feel about the snow footprint on the Euro but it is showing an event on MLK day as it did yesterday afternoon. Now we have consecutive model runs with a winter storm and if the Euro continues to show this and other models get in line, then I will get excited. We are now seeing potential and hopefully nature will turn it into realization for many of us on this board.
Storm next week has the dots to be massive, just don't think the cold air dots connect for most of us on the board. Fun timeframe ahead of what I think is the main timeframe that follows.
NBAcentel
Member
Another thing I like about this look to is if you whiff the first one, it still likely eventually phases and you set up a big low somewhere in the NATL with a trailing high, with another shortwave right behind it entering the PNW 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
To me that makes sense with the 18-21 timeframe with the noise we’ve been seeing lately.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The end of the CMC perhaps was setting up for something after that first wave that didn’t phase on that run.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCWeatherNow
Member
Look at that dip
to me. not a snow look. but can't think of the last time we've had a storm type like this, a qpf bomb that effortlessly tilts negative with some getting accumulations because screw it there's some cold air down there somewhere. related to this is that there really hasn't been a blockbuster for anywhere in the northeast. everyone has been starving lately, except one place for some reason: southern virginia
can't think of the last time i've even had to think about "when rain flips to snow". modal storm type in 2020s has mainly been overrunning over 500mb patterns that don't really have runway shortwaves to amplify. doubt it's our storm but to me its a good sign if someone on the eastern third of the country reels in a legit blockbuster where some lucky dude in west virginia gets 20 inches. we just haven't had storms like that lately
NBAcentel
Member
That trailing shortwave though entering Montana. Guess we gotta hope for the first one to be amped and slow for more confluence on the eventual second one ? Puzzle peices starting to come together it seems 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
“Sliding board” shortwave pattern, it’s a tricky one but can be rewarding if things line up right.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
Yup, that’s what it seems, notice the 18z run and today’s run had a initially slower/deeper EC trough
The 18z run produced yesterday and so did 12z today. What happens mid next week is important it seems, a slower more deeper trough with a early phase sets us up for something better
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Deep trough.
Big cold shot on the 12z GFS around 1/15. Let’s see if it sets the table for fun later on in the run
NBAcentel
Member
Here comes a shortwave entering the northern plains 
iGRXY
Member
You take this look 100/100x with an overrunning setup. That NW side will be much more expansive from FGEN driven WAA.
#natgas
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like part of it gets cut off and drifts west. Looks a little wonky on why it wouldn't ride the wave down and east.
Stovepipe shortwave dripping in steeper than that close 00z run last night..this could get crazy for somebody on the east coast..hold tight 
NBAcentel
Member
Only thing I don’t like is how both the AIGFS and GFS farts the cutoff into the west coast and sends it off into the pacific though, but plenty of time 
What an idiot.. I mean who does this. What a moron.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Stupid shortwave moves west under the west coast ridge. I freaking hate when that happens
I was about to say. GFS loves to dump those things in the SW. Regardless jeez that’s a pretty look at 500
Notorious for doing that. Correct me if I’m wrong but before the big gulf coast storm last year didn’t we spend a lot of time figuring out if/when that cutoff was going to kick east and the amplification timing and it was a big factor on which US region was going to even see winter weather? Like right up until a day or two before the storm? I’m pretty sure this is the same song and dance we always do
Not only does it leave the cutoff behind but that also pumps the ridge over the southeast and probably compounds our no-snow issues 
It's definitely possible if the top of the ridge rolls over or if there's already a weakness out west. I like a good solid meridianal ridge axis out there. The models have been divergent about that.
A lot of bright colors showing up around Day 10. Not going to be an easy forecast.
That’s nauseating tbh. But you can’t make it up. I dare you to even try 
BIG COLD DOME BROTHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like we got a little southern jet influence cooking here.
@SD can you run a program that shows what would happen had that shortwave swung east this run and not turned into an abandoned cutoff in the SW pumping a ridge over us? After you do, how much snow did I get? Thanks