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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Jessy89 said:
I enjoy the Facebook group. It’s a good group we got going over there. I encourage anyone in upstate sc ne Georgia and western nc to join.


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Yep its a good group!
On a weather note GSP is looking to issue or expand advisories and watches soon from what I've heard for the upstate and Ne Ga
 
Well dang it, the way the backend stuff is trending south I better hope I can score something on the frontend thump... tbh I like my chances with the front end, big bust potential there (could be zilch, could be several inches, seen both ways)
 
metwannabe said:
Well dang it, the way the backend stuff is trending south I better hope I can score something on the frontend thump... tbh I like my chances with the front end, big bust potential there (could be zilch, could be several inches, seen both ways)
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One NAM run isnt a trend.
 
???
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Regardless of what happens I’d be happy for anything .. bright side is we will be seeing snow falling and that’s exciting enough and now with some accumulations possible although mild but still maybe a coating .. and this is the first of many systems to come .. at least it’s not all cold rain .. I’ll take it
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
One NAM run isnt a trend.
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Overall the NAM has been trending south with the low the last few runs, while the actual location of the backend stuff itself hasn't shifted that far south until this run.
 
DopplerWx said:
if you are around charlotte you have to be pretty excited, ripping fatties from 2pm-6pm or so. we have gotten the shaft the past few threats it is our time to cash in!
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I'm going to Charlotte tonight. I think there's a chance Charlotte could be in The Sweet Spot
 
Jessy89 said:
Nam has north of 85 a nice band of snow in upstate


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Looks like it too far east for us
Six Mile Wx said:
I’m just across the county line from you in Six Mile
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I'm in Easley. 26 for me this am but already up to 32.5. I'm afraid climo is going to win out for us Oconee/Pickens guys and there just isn't going to be enough cold.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Looks like it too far east for us

I'm in Easley. 26 for me this am but already up to 32.5. I'm afraid climo is going to win out for us Oconee/Pickens guys and there just isn't going to be enough cold.
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Yes that’s what im thinking as well. Greenville is in a better spot then us


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In all honesty though upper level low banding features and such aren’t really figured out until they form on the day of the event .. really no use looking into anything about that upper low until day of .. even then almost every time the evolution of the precip is always different than what the short range guidance shows us
 
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I've updated my map based on trends in the short range models yesterday and this morning. The ULL has trended further south and Snow starts to creep down to the I85 corridor sooner. (3K Nam actually has it by midnight). Some local mets have started the trend of pushing their accumulations further south as well. The mountains are almost a bet to get at 6" here. The Western escarpment looks perfect as well. The further west you are in this situation the better it looks to get the heaviest precip and colder temperatures. I think those south of 85 will see some snow but it's all dependent on the backend stuff. Ratios will likely be higher as colder air hits the column and the rates in that band will be very heavy. Southern Cherokee County, Southern Spartanburg county and suburbs, and a good portion of Greenville think can get an inch with pockets of slightly higher amounts with that back end stuff. That extends towards Charlotte eastward. Areas along and North of 85 it looks like the frontend and middle will deliver a little more. 2 inches I think is likely here with pockets of higher. The closer you get to the mountains (Inman, TR, Chesnee) the better chance you'll have to see those higher amounts as would areas along and west of 77. The mountains of SC towards Landrum will likely see 3-6" here with the higher end on the mountain tops. I am going to watch throughout the day to see how the mesoscale real time analysts are matching the short range models and the trends of the ULL to continue to push south as we have seen so far.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 63898
I've updated my map based on trends in the short range models yesterday and this morning. The ULL has trended further south and Snow starts to creep down to the I85 corridor sooner. (3K Nam actually has it by midnight). Some local mets have started the trend of pushing their accumulations further south as well. The mountains are almost a bet to get at 6" here. The Western escarpment looks perfect as well. The further west you are in this situation the better it looks to get the heaviest precip and colder temperatures. I think those south of 85 will see some snow but it's all dependent on the backend stuff. Ratios will likely be higher as colder air hits the column and the rates in that band will be very heavy. Southern Cherokee County, Southern Spartanburg county and suburbs, and a good portion of Greenville think can get an inch with pockets of slightly higher amounts with that back end stuff. That extends towards Charlotte eastward. Areas along and North of 85 it looks like the frontend and middle will deliver a little more. 2 inches I think is likely here with pockets of higher. The closer you get to the mountains (Inman, TR, Chesnee) the better chance you'll have to see those higher amounts as would areas along and west of 77. The mountains of SC towards Landrum will likely see 3-6" here with the higher end on the mountain tops. I am going to watch throughout the day to see how the mesoscale real time analysts are matching the short range models and the trends of the ULL to continue to push south as we have seen so far.
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You don’t have a warm nose there I like it. Hope that pans out


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Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

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Yeah these features usually over produce so it’ll be interesting to see how everything translates tomorrow
 
I'll say this, whatever regions can stay snow and get both the initial thump and deform band are going to see many hours of snow. Looks like that area might be just north of the Triad proper. If you only get the deform band for areas south of there, it still looks like you could still see 6-7 hours of snow. Could be fun or disappointing. We never know.
 
I’m kinda surprised RAH is still going with 1” for W-S/GSO as the “most likely” scenario. Virtually all guidance shows a warning-level accumulation. They’re the pros, but it seems like there’s a big bust potential there.
 
packfan98 said:
I'll say this, whatever regions can stay snow and get both the initial thump and deform band are going to see many hours of snow. Looks like that area might be just north of the Triad proper. If you only get the deform band for areas south of there, it still looks like you could still see 6-7 hours of snow. Could be fun or disappointing. We never know.
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And those that get under that deform band are going to see some good rates, even if it comes after rain and equals minor accums those rates always fun
 
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