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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Webberweather53 said:
The evolution of the precip field on the NAM kind of reminds me of the big storm earlier this month in the NE US where the heaviest precip was in the cold conveyor belt on the extreme NW edge of the precipitation shield aided by warm advection, frontogenesis from melting hydrometeors aloft on the leading edge of the warm nose partially offsetting warm advection, & an orographic assist.

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Yeah, I was thinking of that too! That was a major bust for them.
 
12z ICON was hot garbage. Warmer than the 6z run. Looked to me mostly rain outside of mountains with a burst of snow in the deform band as the system moved out.
icon_asnow_seus_23.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I was in Roanoke right now, I'd be licking my chops for 3 reasons:

1) Warm advection

2) Isentropical upglide (via CAD)

3) Orographic lift.

These are what I'd call the "big three" of lifting mechanisms that NWP models (esp globals like the GFS & Euro) often completely whiff on & grossly underestimate in most winter storms. Any one of the 3 being present is a plus if you're hoping for a NW trend, but given that all will be working simultaneously in earnest here, it seems a last second NW shift in snow totals is virtually inevitable imo. Thus, I very strongly believe the mountains of southwestern Virginia are gonna cash in nicely.

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Yeah, I remember the NE crew commenting how the heavy band was well north of where it was modeled. Though I do remember them saying the NAM and Canadian did well.
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, I remember the NE crew commenting how the heavy band was well north of where it was modeled. Though I do remember them saying the NAM and Canadian did well.
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Well if it tells you anything, I'm planning to snow chase near Roanoke, VA for this event. Extremely confident we're gonna see a huge NW bust here.
 
MRX explains it pretty good..

The extended period will remain a low confidence forecast as active
weather brings periods of rain and/or snow to area. The extended
period gets started with a closed h5 low to our southwest, centered
over the lower Mississippi River Valley which is progged to lift
northeast into the Tennessee Valley by Friday. A surface low
attendant this h5 trough will develop across the Gulf Coast and lift
into GA/SC and into the western Atlantic by Friday. Rain showers
will lift into the forecast area likely Thursday afternoon and into
Thursday night from southwest to northeast. Thermal profiles depict
much of this will be a cold rain as guidance shows a warm nose
between 925 and 700mb. The NAM continues to be the colder solution
with most of its precipitation occurring with temps above 925mb
below freezing. The GFS is the warmest solution with a strong 925-
850mb flow and keeps the lower troposphere above freezing through
most of the event. The ECMWF is in the middle with cold rain through
much of Friday and eventually becoming cold enough for possibly some
wintry precipitation Friday night. These deterministic differences
lead to a very low confidence forecast. Many factors will be at play
for any potential winter weather accumulations such as timing of
cold air arriving and the degree of dynamic cooling that will be
likely underneath the h5 low. The best chances of accumulating
snowfall will remain across the higher terrain of the East Tennessee
mountains, portions of Southwest Virginia, and the Cumberland
Plateau. Confidence in the valley is even lower at this point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The evolution of the precip field on the NAM kind of reminds me of the big storm earlier this month in the NE US where the heaviest precip was in the cold conveyor belt on the extreme NW edge of the precipitation shield aided by warm advection, frontogenesis from melting hydrometeors aloft on the leading edge of the warm nose partially offsetting warm advection, & an orographic assist.

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Soundings are eerily similar to that event F61F7835-11F1-4C88-B136-40AC9EF9CFEF.png71F26EA0-A4D6-4CF7-9448-F627E72E945D.png
 
Gfs is either gonna nail this storm or bust pretty significantly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Actually lol it's veering in the lower stratosphere. LOL
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Living here a little bit north of Charlotte, I’m still having to completely rely on any backside band right when it cools aloft ? I just don’t see the front end/middle stuff working out, I probably would count more IP pellets than snow at those 2 parts
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Living here a little bit north of Charlotte, I’m still having to completely rely on any backside band right when it cools aloft ? I just don’t see the front end/middle stuff working out, I probably would count more IP pellets than snow at those 2 parts
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itll be lunchtime friday and we will be trying to decide if we just saw a fat raindrop or a snowflake mixing in as the back edge of precip rolls through im thinking
 
DopplerWx said:
itll be lunchtime friday and we will be trying to decide if we just saw a fat raindrop or a snowflake mixing in as the back edge of precip rolls through im thinking
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That’s very possible as well, imo I’m just more interested in the backside of the system, I remember a little system a few weeks ago that was a close call in NC on models completely get ruined by WAA the day of
 
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