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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Jessy89 said:
So unless more develops all those bullseye areas getting 4-8 inches between Asheville and Hendersonville busted.


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Watch why you say, you will be called a clown and mocked by the mob....but yes, those busted big time. NWS out of GSP says that anything the ULL generates will be inconsequential to storm totals anyway.
 
All the models still bring the backside band through the Triad this afternoon. Our low off the coast will start taking shape right at noon and be sub1000 into upper 990 terriotory right after supper into Midnight. Untill then its weak sauce all day except mtns mostly. Heres the latest HRRR. I checked both Nams, wrf family , short range Canadian. All in lock step.
Heres the Kuchera off HRRR
1610109144325.png
 
NCSNOW said:
All the models still bring the backside band through the Triad this afternoon. Our low off the coast will start taking shape right at noon and be sub1000 into upper 990 terriotory right after supper into Midnight. Untill then its weak sauce all day except mtns mostly. Heres the latest HRRR. I checked both Nams, wrf family , short range Canadian. All in lock step.
Heres the Kuchera off HRRR
View attachment 64217
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and here is the newest 11z run. Dried out big time. The deform band is fizzling too.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
just a pretty miserable light rain here. Currently modeled to be smack in the deform band snow hole. We’ll see :/
 
packfan98 said:
and here is the newest 11z run. Dried out big time. The deform band is fizzling too.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
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OUCH! I didnt realize the tab on pivotal was set at 6z. Yea thats anemic and I'm not suprised. First time in a long while a system has rolled through and underperformed qpf wise. Honestly can't remember the last time coming off the almost wettest year on record here. Would pick todays event of all events to break the trend. if we would have been expecting nothing frozen, it would pour buckets. Every model Ive watched like a hawk was spitting out .5-.9 qpf here up until the past few hours.
 
At least 4” here so far in Blowing Rock. Photo is too large to upload.
 
Was thinking about supper in Hendersonville but not sure it’s worth going up there. Be melted by evening unless they do get more


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Jessy89 said:
Was thinking about supper in Hendersonville but not sure it’s worth going up there. Be melted by evening unless they do get more


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WLOS just reported they’re expecting probably another inch before tapering off this evening. It’s still coming down good up here at work.
 
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For the upstate crew, If you live east of Highway 25 in Greenville county towards Spartanburg and Cherokee counties you will likely see the backend band rotate through and drop 2-5 Hours of moderate to heavy snow and pick up an additional 1-2" as the NWS has stated and models are spitting out. West of there it is likely going to be over after these last couple of bands roll through.
 
Definitely big bust. Models 15-20 years ago you could bank on. Now they change non stop up to the day and majority bust. With all the technology in the world it seems models have gotten worse. 15 years ago the euro showed a storm 10 days out you could bank on it just about. ULL rarely work well for us and this one was one I never got excited over. To many what ifs. Frosty said it best earlier. When you have to depend on deform band you will be disappointed. Frosty told me yesterday this was going to be a big bust overall and it is. Some will do well but most doesn't seem they will. Never doubt a Snowman when he says bust.
 
Light rain this morning in Durham. Might be some sleet mixed in, too, but I’m not positive and it doesn’t really matter, anyways. All hopes are pinned on this evening.
 
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