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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Hendersonville NC is my chasing area. Any thoughts if that a good spot?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hard for me to see anything more than a trace-dusting of snow & sleet accumulation for most everyone east of the mountains in this setup, even when you consider the possibility for a backend CCB thumping either from this coastal low or a trailing upper wave
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Then why do the models keep showing more?
 
packfan98 said:
Please explain. I put little faith in the ICON, but 6z was much better than the prior 3 runs.
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I would take a screenshot but they are not loading onto here. But looking at tropical tidbits there's only snow I-40 North
 
My first call map for this event in NC. Not impressed with this setup and the potential of accumulating snow east of the mountains despite all the clown maps that keep getting thrown around.

Looks like mostly cold rain SE of the Triad, with cold rain &/or sleet probably being the predominant precip type in the Triad, probably a dusting or so of what would probably sleet accumulation more so than snow imo. There's certainly a legit possibility for some snow & sleet on the backside in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain but I wouldn't expect much more than a dusting accumulation-wise given the warm & wet soils (wetter soils = higher heat capacity), preceding rainfall & potential for warm advection to completely overwhelm this event & make it harder for an eventual transition to occur if the warm nose is stronger than forecast initially (which it likely will be).

Meh

January 8-9 2021 NC Forecast Snowmap1.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
My first call map for this event in NC. Not impressed with this setup and the potential of accumulating snow east of the mountains despite all the clown maps that keep getting thrown around.

Looks like mostly cold rain SE of the Triad, with cold rain &/or sleet probably being the predominant precip type in the Triad, probably a dusting or so of what would probably sleet accumulation more so than snow imo. There's certainly a legit possibility for some snow & sleet on the backside in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain but I wouldn't expect much more than a dusting accumulation-wise given the warm & wet soils (wetter soils = higher heat capacity), preceding rainfall & potential for warm advection to completely overwhelm this event & make it harder for an eventual transition to occur if the warm nose is stronger than forecast initially (which it likely will be).

Meh

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Why do the models keep showing more for NC? Why do you think it's not going to be much but rain for most folks?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why do the models keep showing more for NC? Why do you think it's not going to be much but rain for most folks?
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He has already explained why, warm air advection driving the precip . Regardless of what models show now he sees a disconnect between the synoptic setup producing the system vs the snowfall maps the models spit . As in they don’t make sense . Either the setup is modeled wrong and we will have plenty of cold air or the more likely scenario , the snow maps are wrong and not reflecting what the setup would produce .
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why do the models keep showing more for NC? Why do you think it's not going to be much but rain for most folks?
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Just looking at what's creating most of the lift in this setup, it's pretty much all warm advection for most of the event despite the fact we have an upper low moving overhead. The amount of low-level veering and WAA I'm seeing even on models like the GFS which usually suck in sniffing out warm noses is already borderline for snow/rain in the Triad and that's usually a real bad sign. If you're looking for some snow hope we erode the warm nose really fast on the backend or that the trailing wave on saturday can provide some because it looks to be mostly DCVA-driven lift. I'm not trying to be a downcaster or hype the crap out of this (as I'm doing w/ the pattern that comes around and just after mid-month). Looking at this pretty objectively, it's a crap setup. If you get a trace of sleet at the onset of the precip that's a win here.
 
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