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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

This morning short range models until the event are what we need to pay attention to. We are in range of the NAM now and I want to see the trends until 0Z tonight to see where we are headed for sure.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Then why do we even bother with the models and their solutions? This sucks.
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I mean the door is still legitimately open for a quick burst of snow & sleet on the backend of this low and/or from a trailing wave on Saturday. I'd still say that's pretty interesting overall to be honest because there would be a little room to bust high in a few locales if everything went right. At the moment, I honestly don't see a whole lot to support more than a heavy dusting SE of the Triad in the legitimate best case scenario until we have more confidence in some of the mesoscale details and where any potential bands would setup east of the mtns late on Friday, Friday night, &/or Saturday
 
The wild card in this is a heavier band of precip that's going to set up somewhere that's associated with the ULL. This will have the potential to dump on someone that is only expecting cold rain with some flakes mixed in, and I think it'll likely occur outside of the mountains. Someone is going to get a surprise, but it's going to be decently isolated and extremely hard to predict where that location will be until the system is actually unfolding. Someone is going to get pasted under the deformation band with a quick few inches.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mean the door is still legitimately open for a quick burst of snow & sleet on the backend of this low and/or from a trailing wave on Saturday. I'd still say that's pretty interesting overall to be honest because there would be a little room to bust high in a few locales if everything went right. At the moment, I honestly don't see a whole lot to support more than a heavy dusting SE of the Triad in the legitimate best case scenario until we have more confidence in some of the mesoscale details and where any potential bands would setup east of the mtns late on Friday, Friday night, &/or Saturday
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Yeah I'm actually more intrigued now by any trailing energy for Saturday, these have provided nice surprises in the past. Might be our best shot
 
From RAH (again it seems all eyes should be on the backside possibility):

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084-071100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A period of snow or a rain-snow mix is possible across the Piedmont
and far northern Coastal Plain Thursday night through Friday night,
as a strong low pressure system crosses the Southeast and Carolinas.
Accumulations ranging from a dusting to a couple inches of wet snow
are possible, particularly over the Triad and surrounding areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...

The low pressure system that will track south of our area Friday
remains the biggest piece in the seven day forecast puzzle.
Unfortunately, the details are just not really coming into place for
this storm. Thermal profiles continue to be near the freezing mark
through much of the atmosphere, and minor changes (either warming or
cooling) could have marked effects on precipitation type. Perhaps
the biggest change to the forecast is removing rain from the
forecast for Friday morning across northern counties, allowing for
all snow and some higher snowfall totals (up to an inch) during that
time. However, through the rest of the event, models still cannot
come to a consensus on what the precipitation type will be, and have
stuck with a rain/snow mix in the official forecast. The GFS remains
a cold outlier with mostly snow, the NAM remains a warm outlier with
mostly rain, with the ECMWF and SREF ensemble showing a cold rain.
Considering precipitation will fall as a rain/snow mix, have allowed
for some minimal snow accumulations, with most of the region except
for Fayetteville expected to see measurable snow, even if that
measurable snow is only one or two tenths of an inch. Also not
reflected in the forecast is the potential for banding to occur, as
the forecast area will be in the favored northwest quadrant of the
low track. Certainly any location that ends up in a band could pick
up a quick inch or two of snow.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
UKMET View attachment 63338
Still don’t get this tho? These soundings are supportive of snow, lol View attachment 63339View attachment 63340View attachment 63341
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There’s gonna be some shafting if this think tries to transfer
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
View attachment 63414
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we’ll be making a day trip out of this on Saturday. Leaning Hendersonville/Highlands with a stop at Sierra Nevada Brewery. Although it will probably be slam packed.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s gonna be some shafting if this think tries to transfer

we’ll be making a day trip out of this on Saturday. Leaning Hendersonville/Highlands with a stop at Sierra Nevada Brewery. Although it will probably be slam packed.
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It definitely will be and Buncombe county has issued an order for only 30% capacity at its restaurants. Makes it even tougher. Of course Sierra Nevada may be barely in henderson county, not sure.
 
12z HRRR has a good bit of sleet breaking out over the Carolinas at onset
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm actually more intrigued now by any trailing energy for Saturday, these have provided nice surprises in the past. Might be our best shot
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I am too but I don't think anyone has any real clue where (if at all) that possible band of moderate-heavy sleet on the trailing end of this storm or w/ the following wave on Saturday would be. 1-2" of snow for a few very lucky, isolated locales is potentially on the table if everything goes right and you have some good mesoscale luck to go along w/. Most folks will probably see trace-dusting amounts at best SE of the Triad. If snow or sleet falls out of the sky in Raleigh, Charlotte, or Fayetteville here I'd consider that a win in this setup
 
Hrrrr is looking good Ne Georgia upstate sc north of 85 and a lot of NC


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1c562fb4a567b6c1760a47ec190a4c53.jpg


11z Friday morning on hrrrr


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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yep amended my post once I thought on it. Right on the border.
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On a side note, and sorry for the banter, that piece of property is the whole reason Mills River is now a town. AVL wanted to annex the area around the airport, Mills River knew it was prime for expansion so to keep it from happening they incorporated. Now Sierra Nevada, the Amazon Warehouse, Pepsi, all of Broadpointe Manufacturing Park now reside in Mills River and they get the tax revenue. I love a good middle finger to Asheville. :p
 
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
 
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