Cary_Snow95
Member
Last 4 runs of the NAM have trended towards more separation with the energy diving in from the NE. Doesn’t open the wave as quickly in return
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Thanks to Webber for putting the time into this event.
Everyone will see tomorrow evening as the SPC Mesoscale Maps start to show real time conditions just how strong the warm air aloft will be.
There is a reason that both WPC and the local forecast offices are discounting the ECMWF on this event.
WPC virtually never gets it wrong.
Everyone will see tomorrow evening as the SPC Mesoscale Maps start to show real time conditions just how strong the warm air aloft will be.
There is a reason that both WPC and the local forecast offices are discounting the ECMWF on this event.
WPC virtually never gets it wrong.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
EE rule (NAM+Euro combo) > All
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Area-averaged sounding for Charlotte-GSO-Raleigh area at the time of precip onset on the 3km NAM don't bode well if you're hoping for some snow near the onset
Tons of low-level veering and warm advection w/ stout warm nose showing up below 700mb. Looks like a cold rain/sleet sounding to me.
Pass
Tons of low-level veering and warm advection w/ stout warm nose showing up below 700mb. Looks like a cold rain/sleet sounding to me.
Pass
Jessy89
Member
3k nam looks good to anyone have accumulations for that one
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Pivotal's 12k NAM out put showing potential for ZR, any merit in that right now?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snow depth > clown maps in setups like this w/ above freezing sfc temps, warm ground, and mixing w/ IP & rain.
10:1 clown maps show a ton of snow east of the mtns:
Reality however suggests bare ground is more likely
10:1 clown maps show a ton of snow east of the mtns:
Reality however suggests bare ground is more likely
NCSNOW
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iGRXY
Member
man the 12k really looks good in that band that gets going from CLT to GSO to Roxboro.
3km NAM actually looks solid to how I think this event turns out .. quick front end thump which breaks to sleet and maybe some rain but then cold air quickly rushes in behind the system ending everything as sleet/snow on the backside with heavier banding
iGRXY
Member
Spartanburg gets 3.5", I get 5.5" and the border gets 8" lol
So, the 3K was kind of dry for my area (I know I mentioned this before) for the Christmas "storm" so actually I am quite happy with this output, though that 1st map would make me happier if that was reality for obvious reasons.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Column max temps on the 3km NAM are above freezing basically everywhere east of the mtns save a few random spots near the Triad even at the end of this event. This means sleet or cold rain is more likely than snow.
Jessy89
Member