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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Nick_boynton_ said:
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
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What is there not to believe about the warm nose? Lmao
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
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The HRRR is what I'm waiting for regardless of what it shows. I'm not sure about it's 48 hour performance, but short range it performed well this past December at least for the northeast with that storm.
 
Sleet City USA said:
What is there not to believe about the warm nose? Lmao
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Just that the front end thump will be more than most people think .. that cold air always is thicker than expected and the low placement looks so far south east of us here in central NC ... at least on the models that look colder.. maybe the warm nose eventually takes over but there’s a reason euro ensembles have remained bullish ..
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Just that the front end thump will be more than most people think .. that cold air always is thicker than expected and the low placement looks so far south east of us here in central NC ... at least on the models that look colder.. maybe the warm nose eventually takes over but there’s a reason euro ensembles have remained bullish ..
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And that they have for RDU.

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
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The RAP honestly isn’t reliable at all and the HRRR isn’t reliable beyond 24 hours or so.
 
You guys chasing can just go on up to the northern NC Mtns where the ground is already covered and its spitting snow currently.
 
Another thing to note that this had a very good front end thump that should build in the cold as well.

Edit: at 12z it tried to raise the 850's to the 85 border before crashing them again so I am not quite sure I buy that. The 850's are pretty cold this run.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
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Front end thumps like Dec 2018 & Feb 12-13 2014 work if the cold air is already well entrenched prior to the precip getting here. We are gonna have to spend QPF trying to wet bulb to freezing because the cold air isn’t in place and by then it may be too late
 
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