Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[cyclogent]

Atlanta peeps are gonna like the WRF suite

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If your hoping for a burst of snow to lay down minor accums for areas further East, this is where it would come from, the backside of this system

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS increased

 

[Avalanche]

Lol, like Webber said, go to Galax, or just south of Roanoke VA

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

T

GEFS increased

The GEFS is pretty much pointless at this time tbh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS increased

Gefs at this range is worthless, it won’t really show a warm nose or anything like a Meso Model would

 

[Tarheel1]

Gefs at this range is worthless, it won’t really show a warm nose or anything like a Meso Model would

RAP

 

[Webberweather53]

I've seen some epic warm advection soundings in my time but this takes on the cake. 3km NAM shows veering from the sfc all the way into the lower stratosphere.

LOL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I've seen some epic warm advection soundings in my time but this takes on the cake. 3km NAM shows veering from the sfc all the way into the lower stratosphere.

LOL

View attachment 63492

Sudden stratospheric warming - mesoscale version
lmao

 

[iGRXY]

RAP

And it looks great right now.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

what’s worse in medium range, the RAP or the SREF ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

what’s worse in medium range, the RAP or the SREF ?

SREF all day

 

[NCSNOW]

Lol, like Webber said, go to Galax, or just south of Roanoke VA

According to both 12z GFS Youll be seeing brown ground, esp Roanoke. But whens the GFS ever been right

 

[iGRXY]

what’s worse in medium range, the RAP or the SREF ?

Nothing is worse than the Sref ... I repeat NOTHING is worse than the sref.

 

[iGRXY]

Even though we are out of the range of the GFS and the GFSV16, the difference in them is laughable.

 

[ForsythSnow]

what’s worse in medium range, the RAP or the SREF ?

It's more accurate to pin every possible solution to a dart board and throw a dart than to trust the SREF. Amounts and numbers change drastically each run while the RAP is less dramatic usually. Both are still not the best. Off the topic of worst, I'd go with the HRRR inside 24 hours for sure and average every 3 hour's runs to determine trends.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Holy hell what lmao

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Holy hell what lmao
View attachment 63504

Aggressive as always lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Holy hell what lmao
View attachment 63504

I used to salivate over these maps when I was a kid

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

It's more accurate to pin every possible solution to a dart board and throw a dart than to trust the SREF. Amounts and numbers change drastically each run while the RAP is less dramatic usually. Both are still not the best. Off the topic of worst, I'd go with the HRRR inside 24 hours for sure and average every 3 hour's runs to determine trends.

I know it’s out of range but the HRRR looked good for us