iGRXY
Member
I have been saying I think there’s enough blocking overtop to keep the ULL track to the south.
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
Allan's thoughts, I'd be perfectly fine with this
I like this 
I wonder if timing of this will affect snow chances for you folk east o' the mountains. (for the better). This thing is coming in the dead of the afternoon in East Tenn. In marginal events that always matters here in Chattanooga. That sorta surprise snow we had back in Feb 2020 came in the early morning. Had that puppy waited six hours, I'm sure it would have been mostly rain, with little accum.
Lol the HRW-FV3 goes crazy with a backside band ?
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that model read my mind.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
If I could get the high end and have 2 inches of snow and sleet, I'd be fine with it.
smast16
Member
Dangit... bullseyed 2-3 days out. this isn't going to end well.
Dry slot FTL
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The euro is almost certainly severely underselling the northern extent of the precip in SW Virginia.
cyclogent
Member
Time of day/night will make some difference but it's not quite as impactful in January as it would be in February, and even less so with an upper low. Initial onset looks to be late afternoon/early evening, but heaviest precip in our area should be between midnight and sunrise which helps. I think the key for us will be precip rates - anything light is likely rain, but heavier precip will tend to be snow, and we'll probably flip back and forth a few times as the bands move through. A sloppy snow for sure lol if this pans out
edit: Yep, 2/8/2020 was literally perfect timing - all rain til about 40 miles west, and died a rainy death 100 miles to the east. timing a few hours either side and we would had just another cold rain event with a few flakes mixed in
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When the warm advection starts to really crank and the warm nose advances NW towards VA, you’re gonna see some subsidence drying on the warm (SE) side of the 0C max column temp line in much of NC during the heart of the event and places along and just north of that boundary being enhanced by latent heat of melting are gonna get smoked. If your model sucks at picking up WAA, you get more than just a warming trend. It also dries out
EPS makes more sense then the euro with how far north the snow goes 
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, it might be better to compare the precip maps vs the snow maps when looking at NW trends.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This looks like a @Nomanslandva crush job
That was the old one, oops, here’s the new one, it shifted south
NCSNOW
Member
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The crush Job will be eastern Ashe,Avery,Watauga,Alleghaney counties NC. Jefferson to sparta is my pic for an official 12 by a wx spotter. Like Allans map. Also think mby gets a good dose of sleet. Have to wait till tommorow really get into all the layers. But any white ground above frost is a win
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah big shift south. Webber better stay out of VA!
I still think SW VA gets solid snow, looking at certain things, I would think there would be more precip up towards there, it’s kinda strange
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In a setup like this odds are the heaviest axis of snow is gonna end up 100+ miles north of that even if we don’t change anything synoptically. The coarse gridded ensemble members are even worse than the op models at sniffing out WAA. When you couple that with the orographic and isentropic lift, I seriously doubt the heaviest snow will remain squarely in NC.