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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

POWERSTROKE said:
Definitely big bust. Models 15-20 years ago you could bank on. Now they change non stop up to the day and majority bust. With all the technology in the world it seems models have gotten worse. 15 years ago the euro showed a storm 10 days out you could bank on it just about. ULL rarely work well for us and this one was one I never got excited over. To many what ifs. Frosty said it best earlier. When you have to depend on deform band you will be disappointed. Frosty told me yesterday this was going to be a big bust overall and it is. Some will do well but most doesn't seem they will. Never doubt a Snowman when he says bust.
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Totally agree. Models seem to be far worse at forecasting borderline snow than they were 15 years ago

You can bank on the 12 Hour HRRV4 (not V3) within 12 hours only. It clearly showed it unraveling late yesterday morning .

Also the SPC hourly 925 and 850 observations yesterday afternoon and evening clearly showed it was going to not pan out. No one in the forum wants to discuss those.

Congrats to those that got snow. Largest report I have seen is 11” in Yancey county
 
decent snow under this band. After the first one dissipated over head and HRRR had this one doing the same rapidly, I have been surprised this one has produced a little.1610121446634.png
 
SD said:
I think the biggest concern for the triangle especially the south and eastern parts this evening is caa being delayed or not sufficient enough and it's sleet or cold rain precip should be there.

On the other side the cause for excitement is a little bit of late enhancement to banding or a merger of a couple mesoscale bands that might over perform for a few locations
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It's a double edged sword: cold air advection implies forcing for descent, so if you need too much of it to cool the column then you're also risking getting less precip. This is probably one of the reasons that models show the deform band drying up as it moves east. @Webberweather53 talked a lot yesterday about the synoptic-scale features needed to overcome this (differential (cyclonic) vorticity advection, or DCVA), but it's probably a bit late to expect much of a shift in those features in models. The other source for lift is to hope for something frontogenetical or more mesoscale like you're talking about.
 
superjames1992 said:
Sucks surface temps are so high. That combined with sun angle is going to really cut into accumulations in a lot of places where the snow is falling during the daylight hours.

And, no, I’m not saying accumulations won’t happen, I’m just saying this combo is going to result in much less snowfall accumulations than there otherwise would be.
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The sun angle in early January
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Nick_boynton_ said:
The sun angle in early January
View attachment 64277
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Oh it’s definitely better than it would be in March, but it’s still a factor when combined with above freezing surface temps. That’s a bad combo. I know a lot of people scoff about this stuff mattering, but there’s a reason the NWS talks about this stuff. It especially matters for streets and paved surfaces, it’s somewhat less of a factor for grassy and elevated surfaces.
 
Also the rates this thing would spit out ... pants bursting to say the least .. the model also does this thing where the simulated reflectivity rapidly increases intensity of precip as the upper low travels over us... something epic is bound to happen for someone
 
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