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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
gefs_qpf_mean_nc_9.png
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The bulging (for a lack of a better word) over West Central NC is interesting. Some wet members there.


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Shawn said:
Hey Eric, virga or not, looks like precip shield out west starting to set up like that 2000 storm!
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Yeah I'm sticking to my guns and the actual dynamics in play here plus historical precedence wrt previous winter storms in NC and how poorly the models handled them (esp the mid-level WAA and extent of the precip NW of the low center), and this event will probably bust wetter and warmer in general vs the globals (obviously that could mean colder in those w/ more precip) as we've seen time and time again the past several years. My forecast is definitely out there against others but you don't have to look very far back to see how I've done against reality. Just as recently as Dec 2017, even when many of the models were plastering RDU & Chapel Hill a few days out, I adjusted everything NW and focused the heaviest snows in the highest elevations of the mountains... Sure, you could argue that maybe my forecast wasn't that great, but the NWS and most others at the time had a bullseye over the Triad or just east of there and we all know how that panned out in the end
December 8-9 2017 Snowfall Forecast Map.png

Reality...
December 8-9 2017 NC snow Map.png
 
BIG FROSTY said:
This is looking more and more interesting for some further west in NC! I know I'm not in the game but some folks not to far to my east may be?
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Can't entirely rule out some isolated-scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills underneath this very intense upper level trough & concomitant vort max thanks in large part to upslope flow, however I wouldn't consider this likely atm...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't entirely rule out some isolated-scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills underneath this very intense upper level trough & concomitant vort max thanks in large part to upslope flow, however I wouldn't consider this likely atm...
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For eastern South Carolina could we see heavy snow with possible thunder since it will be intensifying?
 
I am going to say this now. Although I have been pessimistic, at best about this event.. the modeling jumping the Low center all around (not figuring out where to place it via the extra vorticity in the SE) and the convection scares me. This can bust in either direction, but the way the HRRR looks, even wonky and differing on convection each hour, I'd say the convection moisture robbery may be over done.

The Euro literally came in on top of @Stormsfury with a substantial increase in moisture. Forecast breaking, actually. Worries me!

Virga, sure. But still wasn't modeled well on simulated radar reflectivity modeling:

wrad_se.gif
 
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Shawn said:
I am going to say this now. Although I have been pessimistic, at best about this event.. the modeling jumping the Low center all around (not figuring out where to place it via the extra vorticity in the SE) and the convection scares me. This can bust in either direction, but the way the HRRR looks, even wonky and differing on convection each hour, I'd say the convection moisture robbery may be over done.

The Euro literally came in on top of @Stormsfury with a substantial increase in moisture. Forecast breaking, actually. Worries me!

Virga, sure. But still wasn't modeled well on simulated radar reflectivity modeling:

wrad_se.gif
Click to expand...
Yep. I've been noticing that as well Shawn. Not sure how that will affect things later, but it's interesting to say the least. Esp. with none of the models picking up on it as is. We can only hope for a similar situation as Jan. 2000.
 
Posting this here, like Eric had posted before, just for reference with the above image. NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN.

nowrad.20000124.06z.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
For eastern South Carolina could we see heavy snow with possible thunder since it will be intensifying?
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Absolutely, it's just dependent on how far west the precipitation shield gets into eastern SC and how quickly the low develops there but I'd say that's pretty likely to be observed in the backend deformation band on the NW side
 
Maybe a virga storm, but hm. 06z NAM:

virga01.png



virga02.png


virga03.png
 
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