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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

MBell said:
Probably nothing more than a few flurries if it makes it this far. Seems fairly healthy though. I’m more curious as to why the models haven’t picked up on it yet. What’s driving it?
Me too...remember me of the 01/22-23/2000 ice storm

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Brick Tamland said:
Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.
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It's because of the double barrel LP's. The NAM consolidates with the western LP but RGEM and some other models consolidate with the eastern LP. Moisture doesn't really get going on the western side until these two consolidate. For us in the triangle we need it to be like what the NAM is showing.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.
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Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


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The radar is giving me hope that snow is not out of the question for Atlanta :) Although it does look like it will stay mainly south of ATL.
 
MBell said:
Probably nothing more than a few flurries if it makes it this far. Seems fairly healthy though. I’m more curious as to why the models haven’t picked up on it yet. What’s driving it?


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The HRRR is actually picking this up pretty well. However, it has it dissipating quickly and so far (even if half of it is virga) it hasn't. It's interesting too, as they have dry dewpoints westward too. I think it's wishcasting to expect accumulations in the Atlanta area but it might not be to see a flurry or two.

The CMC also had that snow in Louisiana earlier fwiw.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The HRRR is actually picking this up pretty well. However, it has it dissipating quickly and so far (even if half of it is virga) it hasn't. It's interesting too, as they have dry dewpoints westward too. I think it's wishcasting to expect accumulations in the Atlanta area but it might not be to see a flurry or two.

The CMC also had that snow in Louisiana earlier fwiw.
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Come on gulf moisture...Lol
 
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Even very very light returns are starting to pop on RadarScope.


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