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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Isnt the low further west than modeled? If so you can throw the gfs out the door.

Per a surface map, the L is already there just south of Miami. I'm not totally sure, but based on my knowledge, the GFS may have initialized the L slightly east of that. The NAM looks right though.
 
Convection likely screwed with the RGEM run, anyways. I noticed it was acting glitchy on Levi's maps with phantom precipitation.
 
Water vapor imagery shows things moistening up.

wv-animated.gif
 
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I remember GA getting a pretty good ice storm before the vort max moved offshore in Jan of 2000


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You could have a 760mb low over Fayetteville at this point and the precip would still be east of 95. Any other time, the NW trend would kill our snow chances. SMH.
 
Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.
 
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