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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
I think you are good for 4-6 Maybe 8 Atlantic moisture really getting involved up there now. Maybe some 2+/hr stuff for the next couple hours. By the way 965 just to your east per the hrrr

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I've got 2" already and I saw that on the hrrr, it's a sickness I look at it every hour like an idiot.... but yeah that's a bomb
 
Not sure how the roads will be tomorrow around here. Had to decide to go ahead and move the dinner for my wife's birthday that was supposed to be tomorrow night. Hope it was at least worth it.
 
I flipped about 8 just west of town, flake size leaves at bit to be desired but rates have gone up considerably over the past hour. Vis under a mile at the moment just eyeballing it. Bands converged over Pitt county with blossoming of the precious depicted on the RAX site to our south. Like to see that back edge hold around 95 for the next several hours, don’t know if 6” is in reach as most of the guidance shows the heavier stuff stopping around 3am here. Closing in on an inch.
 
I will be merging the storm observation thread and this one together after the event. Posting in either place, is fine.
 
The NW expansion of the heavy precip on the Raleigh radar over the last 30 minutes is impressive. I'm jealous of you guys out east if nothing else it should be an exciting few hours

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It was fun while it lasted, looks like this well has dried up for Pittsboro! Looks to be right at 3" or so, which is more than I expected this morning when I woke up. Thank you all for your time, energy, and incredibly valuable input. I look forward to engaging more with each of you over the coming years as I progress through school!

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Some nice winds with it here as well, just gusted to 25.... makes measuring very difficult
 
Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
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Has to be amazing out in those areas right now

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Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
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I-95 literally looks to be the dividing line, just east of there should be go time shortly....
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Mr. Grinch said:
Seen tropical systems look worse
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Yeah, some of the high res guidance was certainly correct in indicating this low would develop what effectively amounts to an eyewall, might be a little more impressive than advertised in the eastern semi-circle but regardless that's insane. Classic shallow warm core hybrid subtropical-extratropical cyclone
 
This little intensifying band could sit right there for a few hours I wouldn't mind one bit
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Lightning strike just south of Nags Head. Hard to get a handle on PGV using the MHX site, RAX shows 28-32 DBZ returns overhead but still no uptick in flake size. Not even dime size flakes are going to make it difficult to push much past 1”hr rates.
 
It reminds me of some hurricanes that scared the east coast before Lol

Most of em are half extratropical by then anyway
 
Am I the only one wondering about the major disconnect between the significant to
major amounts of wintry precip in the SE GA to CHS corridor and the only ~0.25" of total liquid equivalent precip that has been reported there? Many locations in this corridor, including KCHS, got 4-6" of snow in addition to 0.10"+ of ZR/IP combined. When you combine that with the idea that the heavy snow was wet with 850s near or only barely below 0C (i.e., not high ratio situation whatsoever), it makes no meteorological sense. Look at KCHS for a great example. They had a pretty good amount of ZR and IP and yet they still got 5.3" of total
snow/sleet from only 0.26" of total liquid. That's a 20:1 ratio of snow/sleet to liquid that included a fair bit of liquid to start and it wasn't at all a high ratio situation. Even if you assumed they got no ZR/IP, which we know wasn't the case, how in the world could the ratios be 20:1? Again, there's a major disconnect here. The total liquid equivalent seems way too low.
 
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1300m said:
First, congratulations to everyone who got an amazing winter wonderland out of this storm that spit in the face of virtually all numerical weather prediction guidance, media, and the NWS right up until event time. I said this several times but the meteorology always wins.

So how do I feel about my forecast thoughts for this event? Embarrassed, ashamed and outright angry are the first thoughts that come to mind. To channel the Joker from the Dark Knight - I broke my one rule yesterday. That rule is to never, ever, never back down from my forecast that has been carefully reasoned out over a weeks worth of analyzing a storm, without a tangible reason. What I did yesterday was I essentially backed down to the short range guidance when it trended dry from I-95 west, without a tangible reason! I told my colleagues at work - this makes no sense and I obviously have a massive misdiagnosis somewhere but I just don't get how there isn't accumulating snow back to Raleigh at least. But at the time I threw in the towel so to speak, upstream radar over SC wasn't developing yet and with the trends of the HRRR/RGEM/NAM 3km I cowardly caved.

Finally, A+ to WebberWeather and Jon for sticking to their guns and being correct. Their display of expertise with this system was impressive.
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All of you provided excellent, well-reasoned, and much appreciated analysis throughout this entire event, which was based on history, experience, extensive research, and meteorology. I think we can all pretty much agree across the board that we learned a lot over the past few days. Thank you guys very much for your thoughts and comments on this event before it began and as it was unfolding. Tough about the snowfall west of 95, but in the end, it's going to give us all something to take away, research, and utilize during future events. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and answer questions along the way. That goes for Webber, Jon, Delta, and others as well. This is was a lot of fun...frustrating at times, but fun. And that's really why we're all here.
 
1300m said:
First, congratulations to everyone who got an amazing winter wonderland out of this storm that spit in the face of virtually all numerical weather prediction guidance, media, and the NWS right up until event time. I said this several times but the meteorology always wins.

So how do I feel about my forecast thoughts for this event? Embarrassed, ashamed and outright angry are the first thoughts that come to mind. To channel the Joker from the Dark Knight - I broke my one rule yesterday. That rule is to never, ever, never back down from my forecast that has been carefully reasoned out over a weeks worth of analyzing a storm, without a tangible reason. What I did yesterday was I essentially backed down to the short range guidance when it trended dry from I-95 west, without a tangible reason! I told my colleagues at work - this makes no sense and I obviously have a massive misdiagnosis somewhere but I just don't get how there isn't accumulating snow back to Raleigh at least. But at the time I threw in the towel so to speak, upstream radar over SC wasn't developing yet and with the trends of the HRRR/RGEM/NAM 3km I cowardly caved.

Finally, A+ to WebberWeather and Jon for sticking to their guns and being correct. Their display of expertise with this system was impressive.
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No ass kissing here but your owed a huge thanks as well as others for your constant updates and expert advise given over the last ten days . It helps people learn when things are explained from a meteorological standpoint vs someone with a cold snowy bias like myself . So thanks for helping us all learn and for all the time spent tracking this system and all the updates. Hopefully we can get a better system towards the end of the month
 
1300m said:
I actually would like to thank you and everyone here for welcoming me back after a tumultuous past. I shared this with you and I'll share it with everyone - I am still a staunch defender of the science, but I've also changed a lot over the past couple of years. The first reason (two actually) are my two sons that I have been blessed with - they definitely mellow a guy out and help you see things in a different light. The second reason is last April I lost my number one fan, my dad. While it's been tough it's helped me realize we all have struggles and no one is perfect, and to help find the good in people. And here on Southernwx we are all on the same team and we all want the same thing and it has been a real joy to be able to share my passion with you guys and I look forward to that continuing. I hope I haven't come off as abrasive or arrogant because if I do, it's just my writing style it is definitely not my true personality in person. I'm actually a really humble person and I fully realize I still have a lot to learn about meteorology and events like this contain a healthy dose of humble pie and learning opportunities!
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Wow what an amazing story! Southernwx is blessed to have you and so many others, not sure if everyone truly recognizes the meteorological knowledge, opinions and insight they have access to... free of charge right here! I thought I remembered you Life lessons in your post, takes a great person of good character to type those words... thanks and hopefully we will have something to track again real soon.

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GaWx said:
Am I the only one wondering about the major disconnect between the significant to
major amounts of wintry precip in the SE GA to CHS corridor and the only ~0.25" of total liquid equivalent precip that has been reported there? Many locations in this corridor, including KCHS, got 4-6" of snow in addition to 0.10"+ of ZR/IP combined. When you combine that with the idea that the heavy snow was wet with 850s near or only barely below 0C (i.e., not high ratio situation whatsoever), it makes no meteorological sense. Look at KCHS for a great example. They had a pretty good amount of ZR and IP and yet they still got 5.3" of total
snow/sleet from only 0.26" of total liquid. That's a 20:1 ratio of snow/sleet to liquid that included a fair bit of liquid to start and it wasn't at all a high ratio situation. Even if you assumed they got no ZR/IP, which we know wasn't the case, how in the world could the ratios be 20:1? Again, there's a major disconnect here. The total liquid equivalent seems way too low.
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I just called KCHS and they said that the 0.26" was from an automated sensor, which is often way off in this situation. They actually had taken a manual measurement of total combined liquid falling (ZR) as well as melted sleet and snow and got 1.16", which makes way more sense. This is only more than 4 times what the automated sensor showed. Had I not said anything, only 0.26" would have shown up as official. Now they're going to look into changing it to 1.16" officially. What bothers me is that it took me calling them to get them to consider changing it! Being an accurate records kind of guy, that's not comforting.

I have a similar concern about KSAV, whose auto sensor recorded only 0.23". That was no 0.23" storm here! It was at a minimum a 0.75" storm here. Unfortunately, there is no comparable manual measurement at KSAV. :(

Think about this if nothing were to be change. People would look at records 20-30 years from now and see only a quarter inch liquid equivalent storm for the CHS-SAV corridor for a storm that was more like a 1" liquid equivalent type of storm in reality. And even if they change KCHS but they don't change KSAV, the disconnect between KCHS and KSAV will look really funny and KSAV record will be way off.

Edit: I forgot to mention that they told me KCHS got about 0.50" of liquid from the ZR and sleet before the snow!
 
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I just want to thank everyone for this weeks analysis. Per usual it was a long grinding week tracking that I think we can all agree we had a blast. Webber and 1300m were great all week. And I really want to take a second and point out how close Webber’s call map was. He was one of the few people to put out an aggressive map in regards to the western edge of precip and absolutely crushed it. Had it not been for the snow hole he would have drilled it dead on for wake. All in all I’m happy. I received over 1.5” and we should have it around for a while since we don’t go above freezing until Sunday or Monday!
 
1300m said:
It sounds like they don't have a heated gauge there, so probably once it froze over that was the end of it recording any more precipitation.
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Despite technological advances, it seems as if we're going backwards as regards accuracy of records due to too much automation. It is pretty sad that a gross error llke this wouldn't have occurred even way back in the late 1800s since they then had no auto sensors. Even way back then they properly reported the melted wintry precip. Doesn't this bother anyone else that today's records are subject to being less accurate than those from, say, 125 years ago due to too much automation?

Just to review, the auto sensor for KCHS gave them only 0.26" vs 1.16" done manually. They at first reported the 0.26" as official and weren't going to change it had I not called them.​
 
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GaWx said:

Despite technological advances, it seems as if we're going backwards as regards accuracy of records due to too much automation. It is pretty sad that a gross error llke this wouldn't have occurred even way back in the late 1800s since they then had no auto sensors. Even way back then they properly reported the melted wintry precip. Doesn't this bother anyone else that today's records are subject to being less accurate than those from, say, 125 years ago due to too much automation?

Just to review, the auto sensor for KCHS gave them only 0.26" vs 1.16" done manually. They at first reported the 0.26" as official and weren't going to change it had I not called them.​
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I agree. This ends up skewing records of data and in the end, if there is too much misinformation, false reporting can lead to an overall misconception about any changes that could occur in climate. If the over automation, for example, results in an area looking drier over years due to a mis-measurement in a gauge due to either poor design, misplacement, or the gauge freezing over, it could screw up climate data and ultimately make us see the weather in the wrong way. I agree something seems to be going backwards, and the more and more failures with measurements and failed forecasts hopefully will lead to a realization that there needs to be some non-automated measuring of temps, precipitation, and more.
 
1300m said:
First, congratulations to everyone who got an amazing winter wonderland out of this storm that spit in the face of virtually all numerical weather prediction guidance, media, and the NWS right up until event time. I said this several times but the meteorology always wins.

So how do I feel about my forecast thoughts for this event? Embarrassed, ashamed and outright angry are the first thoughts that come to mind. To channel the Joker from the Dark Knight - I broke my one rule yesterday. That rule is to never, ever, never back down from my forecast that has been carefully reasoned out over a weeks worth of analyzing a storm, without a tangible reason. What I did yesterday was I essentially backed down to the short range guidance when it trended dry from I-95 west, without a tangible reason! I told my colleagues at work - this makes no sense and I obviously have a massive misdiagnosis somewhere but I just don't get how there isn't accumulating snow back to Raleigh at least. But at the time I threw in the towel so to speak, upstream radar over SC wasn't developing yet and with the trends of the HRRR/RGEM/NAM 3km I cowardly caved.

Finally, A+ to WebberWeather and Jon for sticking to their guns and being correct. Their display of expertise with this system was impressive.
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I think you did a fantastic job with this system in general, and were one of the few that even gave much of a chance to areas west of I-95 to begin with and you stuck with it pretty much down to the wire! It was pretty apparent others in the forecasting business had not learned their lesson from past storms here in NC the last several years in that the mid-level warm air advection & hence the NW side of the precipitation shield almost always over performs relative to NWP, and in areas that didn't experience a snow-hole this is exactly what happened. I too was starting to get a little rattled by the lack of a substantial NW trend from the models late in the game, but I decided not to change my forecast because what's the difference between 2-5" & 4-8" amongst friends? Not to mention right as I was making a second call map the HRRR & RAP were trending northwest substantially because they were producing too much convection over the SW Atlantic instead of closer to the interface between the Gulf Stream and cooler shelf waters and nearer to the FL/GA coasts where baroclinicity and near-surface vorticity generation was highest, so I decided to just let things come as they may. I took a lot of heat from many of my friends and some in the public for my map, including some on americanwx who didn't think the models could possibly bust this bad 3 days out. Well guess what, they did... I was even told by a few that I should just remove myself from the internet entirely if my forecast busted. It definitely busted in/around Raleigh but there's seriously no way you can forecast a mesoscale dry slot like that more than several hours in advance or in-situ, if we actually had a uniform precipitation shield, the 4-8" would have likely verified. I was pretty close to reality, maybe a touch low in northeastern NC but I personally did not trust those areas in the northern tidewater staying mostly snow considering how strong and close to the coast the low could have tracked. Overall, I learned a lot from this storm and I really enjoyed tracking it with everyone here on the forum. I loved receiving questions, comments, and concerns regarding the storm, models, historical precedent, details for a particular location, etc because it puts me on the spot and only further sharpens my skill sets and stimulates intellectual discussion across the board. Hopefully we get to do this again at least one more time this winter!
 
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