• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Jon said:
Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If a low of this intensity is tracking over Hatteras I wouldn't worry about precip, I'd be more concerned about IP even as far west as the Triangle... In a comparable event in Jan 1940, a 978 hPa bomb went over Hatteras, the predominant precip type ended up being sleet in Raleigh due to extremely intense mid level WAA, NW Wake towards the airport stayed all snow apparently receiving double what was observed just 10-15 miles southeast of there over downtown
 
Jon said:
Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
We can bank on the mid level warm nose being more intense than forecast which also means the precipitation will extend further NW over the piedmont than a NWP model is advertising even if it got the low track down to a T
 
Webberweather53 said:
If a low of this intensity is tracking over Hatteras I wouldn't worry about precip, I'd be more concerned about IP even as far west as the Triangle... In a comparable event in Jan 1940, a 978 hPa bomb went over Hatteras, the predominant precip type ended up being sleet in Raleigh due to extremely intense mid level WAA, NW Wake towards the airport stayed all snow apparently receiving double what was observed just 10-15 miles southeast of there over downtown
Click to expand...
Hell, I’ll take the chance on some sleet if it means getting some moisture west. Ha! I’m ~5 mins from RDU so I’ll take what I can get.
 
Jon said:
Hell, I’ll take the chance on some sleet if it means getting some moisture west. Ha! I’m ~5 mins from RDU so I’ll take what I can get.
Click to expand...

Here's the SLP & 1000-500 thickness map for the January 1940 event from ERA-20C... Very comparable wrt low pressure track and intensity, of course the heaviest axis of snow actually ended up being centered over Greensboro.
6z January 24 1940 MSLP & Thicknesses.jpg
ecmwf_mslp_east3_6.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jon
image.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The globals are definitely adjusting NW, but I don't think they're ever gonna truly see this one coming for those west of I-95 in NC...
Click to expand...

Just peeked at a super res HRRR map on wxbell.. and yeah, precip still moving west albeit slowly down here vs the last and the last etc.

Hey, maybe mby will eek out a flurry!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top