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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Uh oh. QPF, increase into the Central Midlands on the 06z NAM (this is supposed to be what doesnt evaporate):

uhoh.png
 
3KM NAM (based off kuchera) for GA/SC.. increase west, slightly smaller amounts in parts of the east:

snku_acc.us_se.png
 
Very scary ZR for coastal sections:

zr_acc.us_se.png
 
Yes everyone. Please using MPING (free app on phone) to send reports of what you see. It helps the NWS and others immensely.
 
Shawn said:
Yes everyone. Please using MPING (free app on phone) to send reports of what you see. It helps the NWS and others immensely.
Click to expand...
Yes it does... Been looking for ground truth with the precip shield over Fla Big Bend area to I-75, I 10 corridors... No luck so far
 
Precip shield on the 3km NAM shifted east and drier for NC this run. Low level dry layer really cuts down RDU’s totals. Latest HRRR also doesn’t look very pretty, slp skirts NE away from the coast unlike the NAM which moves it NNE along the coast.
 
Also, this is a really fast moving storm. Only has Snow for Savannah from roughly 8 or so until 4 in the afternoon so about 7-8 hours of precip. The progressive nature of the storm is the only reason we won't be seeing widespread 18+ inch amounts.
 
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...

Interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...
Yeah, GSP added chances for snow for CLT not too long ago, that's really bullish for them.
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...
Could that mean upstate see something out of this
 
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