Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[DLI4SCwx]

WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.

That's interesting to say the least. I'm not sure, maybe it was Eric that alluded to this earlier as a possible scenario too. I saw the NAM and RGEM and the precip. shield expanded further NW, so maybe they aren't that far off in their thinking.

 

[$alt]

It means that GSP (a very good forecast office) sees something that could make the event a lot bigger for some. That's all you can really take from this.

Basically that discussion has a Jan 2000 sound to it.

 

[$alt]

Looking at watervapor with radar overlay, the lead wave is really sharpening quick. IDK about vs other guidance (they definitely know better than most here) ... but you can see the secondary wave is right on it's heels racing inward now.

The two pieces are very close, maybe beyond modeling from my slightly untrained eye looking at WV/Radar overlay loops.

 

[MBell]

Looking at watervapor with radar overlay, the lead wave is really sharpening quick. IDK about vs other guidance (they definitely know better than most here) ... but you can see the secondary wave is right on it's heels racing inward now.

The two pieces are very close, maybe beyond modeling from my slightly untrained eye looking at WV/Radar overlay loops.

Is this what is generating the returns on radar over AL, MS, AR and LA?


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[gawxnative]

Seing some LSR's of ZR in N FLA now

 

[$alt]

Is this what is generating the returns on radar over AL, MS, AR and LA?


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I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.

 

[MBell]

I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.

Yeah I saw that as well. Very interesting. I’m anxious to see what happens, those returns in AL are getting close to me. The other day these same type returns were generating flurries. We shall see.


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[DLI4SCwx]

I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.

Which site of preference do you use to view WV imagery with the overlay?

 

[$alt]

Hey everyone, this is a good site to use for a quick overview of WV (Satellite) and you can overlay all kinds of cool things: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Hey everyone, this is a good site to use for a quick overview of WV (Satellite) and you can overlay all kinds of cool things: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Thanks Shawn! That's what I was looking for to view it with.

 

[$alt]

Thanks Shawn! That's what I was looking for to view it with.

Yep, was typing it up when you asked that question already. I am currently getting AWIPS 2 installed again so I can hopefully get more details!

 

[gawxnative]

Shawn... is there going to be a OBS/Reports thread started?

 

[MBell]

FFC did add a slight chance of flurries to my forecast today.


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[DLI4SCwx]

Yep, was typing it up when you asked that question already. I am currently getting AWIPS 2 installed again so I can hopefully get more details!

Wonderful. Keep us up to date please with the details. One thing for certain, whether we get nothing to something, this has been a great learning experience tracking this storm with all the knowledgeable folks on the site.

 

[$alt]

Shawn... is there going to be a OBS/Reports thread started?

You can start it and link it here

If you need me to make it, I can.

 

[gawxnative]

You can start it and link it here

If you need me to make it, I can.

If you would, not sure how to link...Thanks!

 

[$alt]

CAE NWS has changed the forecast to 40% snow today and 20% tonight. ruh roh. No discussion update yet.

 

[gawxnative]

CAE NWS has changed the forecast to 40% snow today and 20% tonight. ruh roh. No discussion update yet.

GDOT Reporting Icing on Bridges I 95 near Darian

 

[$alt]

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-3-4th-2018-winter-storm-observations.325/ observation thread.

 

[$alt]

Not sure why KCAE is so late with their discussion when other offices have their 3-4AM ones out already.

I see what KGSP is speaking of, but its usually very rare to see them talking about snow in their area and even over to CLT when models have been East with QPF. Are they coordinating together? And what does KGSP see that makes them so bullish? Do they know something that we do not? GSP outright said the models may not be right!

Next time on, As The Trof Turns.