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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Isnt the low further west than modeled? If so you can throw the gfs out the door.

Per a surface map, the L is already there just south of Miami. I'm not totally sure, but based on my knowledge, the GFS may have initialized the L slightly east of that. The NAM looks right though.
 
Convection likely screwed with the RGEM run, anyways. I noticed it was acting glitchy on Levi's maps with phantom precipitation.
 
Water vapor imagery shows things moistening up.

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I remember GA getting a pretty good ice storm before the vort max moved offshore in Jan of 2000


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You could have a 760mb low over Fayetteville at this point and the precip would still be east of 95. Any other time, the NW trend would kill our snow chances. SMH.
 
Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.
 
This might be our another "one" LMBO

Probably nothing more than a few flurries if it makes it this far. Seems fairly healthy though. I’m more curious as to why the models haven’t picked up on it yet. What’s driving it?


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Probably nothing more than a few flurries if it makes it this far. Seems fairly healthy though. I’m more curious as to why the models haven’t picked up on it yet. What’s driving it?
Me too...remember me of the 01/22-23/2000 ice storm

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Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.

It's because of the double barrel LP's. The NAM consolidates with the western LP but RGEM and some other models consolidate with the eastern LP. Moisture doesn't really get going on the western side until these two consolidate. For us in the triangle we need it to be like what the NAM is showing.
 
Funny thing is the local TV mets keep saying if it goes further west we get more snow here, but the models keep showing less precip even though they are going further west.

Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


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The radar is giving me hope that snow is not out of the question for Atlanta :) Although it does look like it will stay mainly south of ATL.
 
The radar is giving me hope that snow is not out of the question for Atlanta :)

It’s cloudy again here now. 23 degrees. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some flurries like the other day honestly. We shall see.


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Probably nothing more than a few flurries if it makes it this far. Seems fairly healthy though. I’m more curious as to why the models haven’t picked up on it yet. What’s driving it?


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The HRRR is actually picking this up pretty well. However, it has it dissipating quickly and so far (even if half of it is virga) it hasn't. It's interesting too, as they have dry dewpoints westward too. I think it's wishcasting to expect accumulations in the Atlanta area but it might not be to see a flurry or two.

The CMC also had that snow in Louisiana earlier fwiw.
 
The HRRR is actually picking this up pretty well. However, it has it dissipating quickly and so far (even if half of it is virga) it hasn't. It's interesting too, as they have dry dewpoints westward too. I think it's wishcasting to expect accumulations in the Atlanta area but it might not be to see a flurry or two.

The CMC also had that snow in Louisiana earlier fwiw.
Come on gulf moisture...Lol
 
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Even very very light returns are starting to pop on RadarScope.


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