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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
Someone's I just don't know lol

You'd think it would be snowing buckets under these tops too
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That is some serious lift over my county to get those type of cloud tops. I just don't see how a storm pinwheeling from the NE florida/ SW GA coast doesn't send the goods up over upper SC and NC. Espeacilly considering it should be rapidly deepening at that moment. Even with the NE heading. And funny how it shoots NE, then at obx lattitude the heading turns way more north than NE. Must be the Gulf Stream shooting out that causes this.
 
So, basically the lack of precip based on the system shown on the models go against all the things we've seen before.
 
Jon said:
3km Nam

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That's a painful hard right turn the qpf makes at the state line. Delay that 2 to 3 hrs and I'd be a happy camper.
 
NCSNOW said:
That is some serious lift over my county to get those type of cloud tops. I just don't see how a storm pinwheeling from the NE florida/ SW GA coast doesn't send the goods up over upper SC and NC. Espeacilly considering it should be rapidly deepening at that moment. Even with the NE heading. And funny how it shoots NE, then at obx lattitude the heading turns way more north than NE. Must be the Gulf Stream shooting out that causes this.
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DPs too low, too dry. DPs are in the negatives
 
Track looks to be following gulf stream which "should " be ideal for RDU. Gonna be a fun storm to see what actually transpires.
 
The low is a hundred miles west at 0z and the back edge of the precip is east of the same frame at 18z, where the low is a hundred miles east. This is either the biggest screw job of all time, or the model isn’t doing something quite right.
 
Rain Cold said:
The low is a hundred miles west at 0z and the back edge of the precip is east of the same frame at 18z, where the low is a hundred miles east. This is either the biggest screw job of all time, or the model isn’t doing something quite right.
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Yeah, and I have been reading people all day saying the amount of precip shown is too low based on the system shown on the models, and that's been said of the NAM and global models.
 
What is the Nam doing moving west and the RGEM east? It is nearly go time! Get it together, models.
 
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